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Equities mostly rose Wednesday on building optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the end of the year after the latest batch of data indicated the long-resilient US jobs market was showing signs of easing.
However, after a big downside miss on factory activity the day before — and a second straight contraction — worries were emerging about the state of the world’s number one economy as consumers deal with high inflation and borrowing costs.
On Tuesday, the figures showed job vacancies fell far more than expected to below 8.1 million, which Briefing.com said was the lowest level since 2021.
The figures come ahead of closely watched non-farm payrolls figures due Friday, which will provide a much clearer snapshot for the US central bank ahead of its policy decision next week.
Readings below forecasts have for some time been taken as a positive as they were seen as pointing to an economy still in rude health but slowing enough to give the Fed room to start cutting rates — known as a “Goldilocks” situation.
However, some investors are getting uncomfortable.
“Recent economic reports have reinforced the notion that investors are increasingly looking beyond the ‘Goldilocks’ narrative toward something a bit more consistent with the flagging trajectory of consumption,” warned Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman, of BMO Capital Markets.
“There is nothing to imply that the real economy is on the precipice of a recession… rather that a no-landing for the labour market appears less likely than it did during the first quarter.
“Goldilocks is edging toward the door, but has yet to leave the building.”
Still, bets on a Fed rate cut before the end of the year picked up, with some eyeing September as the lift-off point.
“The evidence is accumulating that the Fed should begin easing,” said Lazard strategist Ronald Temple.
All three main indexes on Wall Street pushed higher, and Asia largely tracked those gains.
Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Manila and Wellington all enjoyed buying interest, though Tokyo, Shanghai and Jakarta were in the red.
Crude prices steepened further as investors digest the OPEC+ alliance of major crude producers’ decision to begin winding back output cuts from October and through next year.
The decision comes as observers fret over demand for the commodity as data suggests US stockpiles are rising, while China’s economy is still struggling to get back on track owing to soft consumer activity and a battered property industry.
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 38,527.60 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.2 percent at 18,668.66
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,087.56
Dollar/yen: UP at 155.27 yen from 154.80 yen on Tuesday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0886 from $1.0883
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2779 from $1.2772
Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.18 pence from 85.19 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $73.10 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.1 percent at $77.41 per barrel
New York – Dow Jones: UP 0.4 at 38,711.29 points (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 8,232.04 (close)
dan/lb
