A new plane Ukraine is getting will amplify its F-16s and eat into Russia’s advantage in the air, experts say

The Swedish aircraft will be the first with this function Ukraine has had, giving it an ability that until now only Russia, with its much larger and more modern air force, has enjoyed.

A boost for Ukraine

Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK’s Royal Aeronautical Society, told BI the Swedish aircraft, linked in with the F-16s, “will be a game changer in terms of the situational awareness, the live radar picture.”

He said the planes would “give the Ukrainians earlier warning of where drone and missile strikes are coming in from. That will be a huge advantage.”

Sweden’s defense minister, Pal Jonson, said the aircraft will “complement and reinforce the F-16 systems.”

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and defense strategy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI the aircraft can be very valuable because they “can see much further and then help direct aircraft towards the greatest threats.”

Meanwhile, Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, said they will be able to direct Ukraine’s fighter jets, so “coordination and command and control will be dramatically improved.”

They remain highly vulnerable

During the war, Russia has been using its own A-50 Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft to monitor Ukraine’s air space and coordinate attacks.

But Ukraine destroyed one A-50 in January, and said it shot down another one the following month. A Ukrainian defense official said in April that Russia only had six A-50s left.

These losses show how vulnerable — and how much of a prize — aircraft like these are.

Aircraft like this “are very vulnerable to fighter aircraft and to missile attack,” Layton said, adding that in war “everybody wants to kill the early warning aircraft.”

Cancian said Russia would be “very interested” in destroying them.

He also warned that the planes are “extraordinarily complex,” beyond anything Ukraine is used to.

Ukraine will likely keep the aircraft together

Layton said he expects the command planes to hang back so their radars can detect incoming drones and cruise missiles, giving F-16s “very accurate targeting.”

The experts said hanging back is also likely the best approach for Ukraine’s first F-16s, so the jets can protect cities and infrastructure while staying away from most of Russia’s weaponry.

Ukraine won’t have enough, at least initially, to justify a very forward use for them, they said.

A Ukrainian official said last month that the first F-16s are due in June or July, matching comments made by Denmark, which said the first jets are due this summer.

Ukraine has been promised about 85 jets by Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. However, it’s not clear how many will arrive in the first wave.

Experts said the F-16s will be useful for Ukraine, but are unlikely to majorly change the war by themselves, particularly with only a small number so far committed.

But they will replenish aircraft losses, take down Russian drones and missiles, and perhaps launch some attacks into Russia-held territory, the experts said.

“Whenever they arrive, that’s a good time for Ukraine,” Cancian said.