A battle over the future of US retirement is playing out in Pennsylvania as the election looms

• Pennsylvania has one of the fastest-aging populations in the nation.
• It’s a case study of how the US will handle a surge of retirees and fewer younger workers.
• Older voters told BI that it’s critical Harris and Trump act on retirees’ priorities, like Social Security.

Maureen, 67, is planning to vote for former President Donald Trump in November because she believes he’ll be more beneficial to her finances now that she’s retired.

The northeast Pennsylvania resident, who requested her last name be withheld to protect her privacy, said she approaches each election with an open mind and has previously voted for both Republicans and Democrats. Like many Americans, this time around, Maureen’s deciding factor is her perception of the economy.

“I’m just looking back over the past eight years, and my 401(k) grew in the four years Trump was in office,” Maureen told Business Insider. “Do I like his personality? Heck no, I don’t. But my 401(k) went up, interest rates were low, unemployment rates were low.”

Maureen’s view highlights a common theme among American voters, particularly those carefully watching their retirement nest egg: they hold whoever is president accountable for how they feel about their finances. Despite the fact that stocks have enjoyed significant gains under both Biden and Trump and even though the Federal Reserve — not the president — dictates benchmark interest rates, Maureen still blames the current administration for her dissatisfaction.

Marjorie Klein, 80, lives in Philadelphia and is also retired. Similar to Maureen, she’s concerned about financial security for older Americans — but she will be supporting Vice President Kamala Harris.

“He says that he’s going to keep Social Security, but you never know with him,” Klein told BI of Trump.

Americans like Maureen and Klein may decide the election. A Morning Consult poll conducted from October 6 to 15 found Harris leading Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania by just one point. However, among voters aged 50 and over in Pennsylvania, a recent poll from AARP found Trump leading Harris by eight points.

“We’re a pivotal state for this presidency,” Bill Johnston-Walsh, state director of AARP Pennsylvania, said. “Whoever wants it is going to have to go through us.”

Pennsylvania is a case study for the role the federal government will play in supporting the US’s aging population over the next few decades through programs like Social Security and Medicare. Pennsylvania voters and economists told BI it’s vital that the next presidential administration plan for a future when retirees greatly outnumber younger Americans to ensure the economy and workforce can function effectively. As a swing state, it’s critical for their campaigns that Harris and Trump listen to older Pennsylvanians’ concerns.

Social Security and Medicare in the hot seat

Pennsylvania is aging rapidly; it has nearly 2.5 million residents over the age of 65, the fifth-highest total in the country. Nationally, the population of adults over 65 is expected to surge by 20 million between now and 2040.

The state’s residents rely heavily on federal government income, mainly through Social Security and Medicare, with two rural counties — Fayette and Cambria — among the most reliant in the nation, a report from the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group found.

Benjamin Glasner, a coauthor of EIG’s report, told BI that the most reliant counties were generally in older, poor, and more rural communities. Cambria, for example, needed more government aid after steel plant closures in the 1980s. Residents’ incomes still haven’t recovered.

“You can only receive so much from Social Security. Medicare can only cover so much, and Medicaid can only cover so much,” Glasner said, adding that creates “a thin level of economic prosperity” reliant on the program’s generosity.”

Mike Crossey, 73, has seen the limits of government aid firsthand in his work as an advocate for retirees. The Pittsburgh-area resident wants the next president of the US to strengthen Social Security, protect pensions, and expand Medicare. He said he knows too many older Americans who live off Social Security alone, which averaged $1,921 nationally for retirees in September.

“I run into people every day who are still making decisions about, ‘Do I take my prescriptions today or do I have lunch today?’ And that just breaks my heart,” Crossey said.

While Trump has denied that he would cut Social Security and previously criticized GOP lawmakers who proposed raising the retirement age to 70, the Committee for a Responsible Budget said that Trump’s policies could force cuts to Social Security benefits in as little as six years. Harris has proposed strengthening Social Security by ensuring the wealthy and big corporations pay what they owe in taxes.

With the Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees report recently projecting that Social Security will only be able to pay out full benefits for the next 11 years, the issue is growing more pressing, and not only for Pennsylvanians. Richard Fiesta, the executive director of the nonpartisan 4 million-member Alliance for Retired Americans, said that “Congress and the next administration needs to have a serious look at Social Security.”

Some retirees are able to live comfortably amid economic headwinds. However, Fiesta said the decline in defined benefit pension plans, or employer-subsidized retirement plans, contributes to a slump in average retiree savings.

This means that more and more Americans rely primarily on Social Security to help keep them financially afloat as they age. The previously mentioned EIG report found that income from government aid is the fastest-growing portion of an American’s income, and it is primarily driven by retirees, who make up a rising share of the total US population.

“And we’re just kind of seeing that now over the last 10 to 15 years as that generation ages into retirement,” Fiesta said.

An aging workforce creates job mismatches

The workforce in Pennsylvania is already starting to see imbalances as the younger population dwindles and the number of retirees grows.

Kyle Kopko, executive director of the bipartisan legislative agency Center for Rural Pennsylvania, said local business owners complain of labor shortages. CRP research suggests that’s due to fewer older adults working traditional jobs and instead pursuing entrepreneurship to supplement their retirement incomes. At the same time, lower birth rates mean younger adults are not filling the open roles either, Kopko said.

“If you don’t have a pool of younger adults in Pennsylvania who can backfill for some of the retirees, that’s going to create supply and demand imbalances,” Kopko said, referring to the role retirees play in the economy as consumers, but less so as workers.

When it comes to the issue of jobs nationwide, Harris proposed tax incentives for small businesses to spur more hiring, while Trump has largely focused on bolstering manufacturing in the US to create more jobs.

One possible avenue for job creation — the infrastructure industry — has hardly been mentioned by either candidate in policy discussions. Bill Candelori, a 68-year-old retired commercial painter, sees this as an overlooked opportunity. He says Biden’s infrastructure investments, which brought $16 billion to Pennsylvania, was a promising step but wants the next administration to go further.

“It’s not only roads and bridges. It’s airports, it’s water authorities, it’s schools, it’s libraries, any public project,” Candelori said. “That’s work for us. And it’s work afterward on maintaining those facilities. It’s job creation.”

Political steps being taken

State and local governments have already taken steps to address these mounting issues. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — a Democrat — has worked with members of his administration to create a 10-year strategic plan that outlined eight key priorities for older adults, including housing, transportation, and health and community support.

Pennsylvania’s Aging Secretary Jason Kavulich said it’s a bipartisan issue that has bipartisan support: “There is not a representative or senator who I’ve ever sat down with that does not care about older adults in their district.”

JR Reed and Krista Geer, both in charge of county-wide aging agencies, have met with older adults in Pennsylvania to hear their top worries. Geer said that one of the biggest concerns she’s heard about is the high cost of living, which has interfered with their ability to afford medications, gas, and groceries. Though inflation has moderated in recent months, it’s still historically elevated and putting pressure on consumers.

“Social security just doesn’t quite keep pace with that,” Geer said. The program adjusts payouts annually to account for inflation. Critics say it isn’t tied to a measure that accurately reflects the spending of older Americans.

Reed and Geer agree the solution is for older populations to have a bigger nest egg, but not one that comes from Social Security. Reed said that he hopes Trump or Harris will continue to fund a 1965 federal law that provides funding to states to better support older adults.

At the federal level, Harris recently proposed a plan that would allow Medicare coverage for in-home eldercare, which Fiesta said would “go a long way” toward helping both older adults and the family members who typically would take care of them.

Trump, to date, has offered minimal details about his plans to address eldercare. Brian Hughes — his campaign’s senior advisor — told BI that the presidential hopeful and his running mate, JD Vance, “share the principles of using more choice in the marketplace and efficiency as tools for better, more affordable health care.”

Overall, the stakes for an aging US population are high, and bipartisan participation is required to ensure the country is properly prepared for a surge in retirees.

Kavulich said that the shift needs to be addressed head-on.

“Older adults really drive our economies,” Kavulich said. “They drive our communities, and we have to respect that. And we have to not just think of them as frail and old and vulnerable.”