World
A world at war: These are the conflicts and tensions of nuclear-armed nations in 2024 – explainer
The year 2024 has hosted numerous armed conflicts around the world, from small-scale internal conflicts to headline-grabbing mechanized battles. And amid this buzz, tensions are climbing between geopolitical rivals, with some of the most powerful nations in the world seeming to prepare for major wars in the near future.
In one of these conflicts, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that World War III would not be confined merely to Europe, and that the entire world would end up feeling the effects of global conflict.
Whether World War III is close or not is a matter of debate, but the cause for concern is certainly real. For the past few years, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ infamous Doomsday Clock has ticked dangerously close to midnight, and a major reason why is nuclear-armed nations being involved in major wars.
These wars include the Russia-Ukraine War as well as Israel’s wars with both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, tensions have also been on the rise with the US, a staunch ally of Israel and Ukraine, as it gets further involved in both affairs in Europe and in tensions in the Middle East with Iran – a nation believed by many to harbor nuclear ambitions of their own.
And all the while, China has been increasing tensions against Taiwan as fears of a potential Chinese attack loom, and tensions between North Korea and its southern neighbor have been making headlines.
We may not be heading for a world war, but we could be heading for a world at war.
Here’s a look at the big conflicts around the world, as well as ones that could erupt at seemingly any moment.
Russia-Ukraine War
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, both sides have been fighting tooth and nail to make new progress as the conflict continues to grind into a violent stalemate.
While Ukraine did stop Russia’s push into its borders from progressing quickly, Moscow’s forces made incremental gains overtime in the eastern and southern parts of the country. And Ukrainian cities and towns regularly were struck by Russian missile and artillery fire.
But Ukraine under President Volodymyr Zelensky had made strong efforts to push back, fighting to regain towns and cities seized by Russia, and occasionally even attacking into Russia itself.
The war changed, however, on August 6, when Ukrainian forces crossed the border into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian troops seized control of over 1,000 square-kilometers very quickly, with the goal seeming to be to force Moscow into negotiations, harm Russian supply lines, and divert Russian military presence.
Two months in and the battle is still ongoing, and it is unclear whether Russia will manage to retake Kursk or if Ukraine will hold out. But underneath all of this is the presence of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal, presenting an ominous shadow over the conflict. Whether Russia will deploy them is currently unknown, but is still cause for concern.
Israel-Hamas War in Gaza
After the October 7 massacre, which saw Hamas terrorists infiltrate southern Israel and kill 1,200 people and kidnap hundreds more, the IDF launched Operation Swords of Iron to strike back. This quickly became the Israel-Hamas War and even saw the first ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in years.
In that time, the IDF has fought throughout Gaza to try and wipe out Hamas, targeting its leadership and destroying its tunnels, weapons caches, and rocket launchers.
At the time of writing, the IDF has made huge progress in major cities such as Gaza City, Jabalya, Khan Yunis, and Rafah. However, it has come at a cost, with several IDF soldiers being wounded or killed, several of the hostages being killed or still held captive in Gaza, and the deaths and displacement of tens of thousands of Gazan Palestinians.
However, Hamas has proven resilient, waging guerilla warfare against the IDF even as its major military capabilities have been destroyed. The terrorist organization’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, also continues to elude Israeli forces, and is believed to be hiding in the maze of tunnels beneath Gaza.
Attempts to push for a ceasefire and arrange for a hostage deal have so far been unsuccessful, barring a brief ceasefire in the early months of the war.
The war has also impacted the rest of the world, with major protests cropping up throughout the West, particularly on college campuses. However, it has also had consequences for global shipping, with the involvement of the Yemen-based Houthis on the side of the Palestinians making traversing through the Red Sea more perilous.
Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, though they have never officially confirmed it. But regardless, the threat of them being used in any conflict remains, which would no doubt have lasting implications for the region and beyond.
Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon
From the early days of the Israel-Hamas War, the Lebanon-based Hezbollah has been involved supporting their Gazan allies. This includes firing rockets, drones, and missiles at Israel’s North, forcing the residents to evacuate.
While the IDF had been focusing heavily on Gaza, the situation in the North continued to escalate with further Hezbollah strikes and counterstrikes by Israel. This included a July 27 Hezbollah strike on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children, and an Israeli retaliation on July 30 killing senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.
However, with the Israeli government officially making returning residents to the North a major war goal, a major escalation erupted in September, starting with the mass explosion of pagers and personal radios throughout Lebanon and even parts of Syria in what is believed to have been a targeted Israeli attack on members of Hezbollah – who had switched to pagers in order to prevent Israel from hacking their phones.
This was followed up days later with the IDF having successfully assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
After this, the IDF began a limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon, supported by numerous airstrikes, in order to push Hezbollah away from the border. These have had the effect of repeatedly thinning out the ranks of Hezbollah leadership.
The terrorist group continues to launch rockets, missiles, and drones at Israel even as the war continues, and it remains to be seen how this conflict will continue to escalate.
Israel-Iran conflict
Iran is a supporter of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. In fact, it is often argued that Israel’s current wars are merely part of a greater shadow war against Iran and its network of proxies.
Israel has long stressed that Iran poses an existential threat to the state, especially with its nuclear program, which is believed by Jerusalem and its allies to be meant for the development of a nuclear weapon.
This, coupled with Iran’s active involvement in the region during the course of the war, caused tensions to boil over. In April 2024, after an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus killed an IRGC general, Tehran retaliated with a massive wave of drones and missiles to attack the Jewish state.
This attack was largely thwarted by Israel and its allies, and Israel successfully retaliated later on. However, following Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran, Iran threatened to carry out another, much larger attack on the Jewish state.
Months went by and no response came, with many analysts claiming it was being used as a negotiating tactic.
During this time, Israel continued to escalate further with Hezbollah, including launching a ground invasion. As a result, on October 1, Iran carried out a larger wave of missile strikes on Israel, including the alleged use of hypersonic missiles.
This attack was much faster than the previous one, with only minutes of warning instead of several hours like in April. However, most of the missiles were successfully intercepted, and while there were Israeli military targets that were destroyed, only one person was killed.
The attack sparked furious responses from Israel’s leadership, with both the government and opposition calling for retaliation against Iran.
At the time of writing, no such retaliation has happened yet.
Tensions on the Korean border
North Korea and South Korea have been in a state of tension for years. Both countries do not recognize the existence of the other and claim full sovereignty over the entire Korean Peninsula, and both possess radically different cultures and governments.
In 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called to abolish all references to cooperation and reunification from the constitution, which sparked a wave of anti-unification speeches and actions within North Korea.
The situation escalated further when South Korea began sending dollar bills, anti-Kim Jong Un propaganda, and K-pop via balloons into North Korea. In response, North Korea began sending balloons filled with garbage into the South, which prompted Seoul to allow for the resumption of anti-North Korean propaganda on loudspeakers around the border.
Most recently, Pyongyang accused South Korea of flying drones over North Korean territory to spread propaganda, and in response, reportedly began destroying old inter-Korean roads along the border. Further media reports claimed that North Korean troops were put on high alert.
According to a report by France24, eight artillery brigades were ordered to be ready to open fire, and North Korean officials have been threatening the South if drone activity does not stop.
South Korea boasts a very large and well-equipped military, with hundreds of thousands of soldiers actively serving and millions more in the reserves. They are also supported by Western allies such as the US, UK, Israel, and the EU, with the US in particular maintaining a large and active military presence in South Korea with over 20,000 active soldiers.
North Korea’s military capabilities are subject to heavy speculation, with it being unclear how up to date its equipment is compared to other Western armies.
But speculation about the quality of its arsenal aside, North Korea makes up for this with numbers, boasting one of the largest armies on Earth – in fact, if taking into account paramilitary forces, then it would actually be the largest army on Earth, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Some sources also claim that North Korea, while seemingly lacking in aircraft carriers, may boast the world’s largest fleet of submarines.
But the most notable aspect of North Korea’s arsenal is its nuclear capabilities, backed by several intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). It is further believed by the US Defense Department that North Korea has chemical weapons in its arsenal as well.
Even if most of the country’s military is built on out of date equipment, the capability to fire chemical weapons and nuclear ICBMs is enough to cause severe concern about any possible military escalation in the Korean Peninsula.
China-Taiwan tensions
China has long struggled with the issue of Taiwan, the island where the remnants of the nationalist Kuomintang government fled to at the end of the Chinese civil war.
At the time, China did not have the military strength to take on Taiwan, who were left alone and eventually turned into a thriving and wealthy democracy and a world leader in the microchip sector, making it the backbone of the tech industry.
But Beijing never gave up its claim to the island and officially recognizes it as part of China, albeit in revolt. And China has been working to grow its strength since the civil war ended too, eventually becoming one of the world’s global superpowers. Its military might is one of the biggest in the world, boasting the world’s largest navy and, counting only active personnel, the world’s largest army overall. It has also been heavily modernizing, and the country has become a major exporter of weapons around the world.
It has become a world leader in cyberwarfare, in the space sector, and in the use of hypersonic weapons. And it also wields its own terrifying nuclear arsenal, believed to be the third largest in the world. It has also played a major role in the global economy, with it being a major hub of manufacturing.
In recent years, China under Xi Jinping has taken a far more aggressive stance toward Taiwan, including several military drills that serve to encircle the island by Chinese forces, as well as violating Taiwanese airspace with military jets.
At the time of writing, the Chinese military launched new drills in the Taiwan Strait that, in the words of Beijing, “serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces.”
These war game exercises have sparked further tensions between China, Taiwan, and Taiwan’s allies. Should these tensions spill over into open conflict, it could have a severe impact on global commerce and tech development.
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