Alabama’s College Football Playoff outlook after upset loss to Vanderbilt: What’s magic wins number for Tide?

The College Football Playoff race within the SEC took a major turn following No. 1 Alabama’s monumental 40-35 upset loss to Vanderbilt, a stunner of epic proportions that resets the top of the national rankings and postseason conversation in October.

The Commodores exposed the Crimson Tide’s vulnerability at the line of scrimmage by owning time of possession and executing Clark Lea’s game plan to near perfection against a titan that was the nation’s new national title frontrunner before their whiff in Nashville.

The expanded playoff leaves some margin for error when you’re a member of the elites, but this was a humbling setback for an Alabama team with holes that still has to play nationally-ranked Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma. 

It was evident early that the Crimson Tide were in for a four-quarter fight against the Commodores, who delivered an uppercut on their first possession then followed with a haymaker via Randon Fontenette’s interception return for a score that left the heavy-Alabama crowd shellshocked.

Vanderbilt never trailed as a three-touchdown underdog en route to its first win in program history over a top-ranked opponent.

Moving forward, another loss for Kalen DeBoer’s team not only muddies the SEC Championship race, but would severely weaken Alabama’s shot at an at-large berth from within a conference dependent on how others finish — namely Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M.

Alabama’s remaining schedule

• vs. South Carolina
• at Tennessee
• vs. Missouri
• at LSU
• vs. Mercer
• at Oklahoma
• vs. Auburn

Projected this week as the SEC champion and No. 2 seed in the playoff after beating handing Georgia its first regular-season loss in 43 games, the Crimson Tide’s magic number remains 10 in our estimation — the number of regular-season victories needed to appear in the playoff.

The Crimson Tide’s most recent trips to Knoxville and Baton Rouge both ended in losses and the Vols and Tigers have flexed explosiveness on offense this fall — a potentially fatal combination given Alabama’s struggles on the defensive side.

No two-loss team has ever reached the playoff, but that came during the four-team era when setbacks were season-changing. With only five auto-bids to conference championship winners, there are seven at-large spots and Alabama will be in the mix for one of those if the Crimson Tide finish strong with several top 25 wins to pair with the statement victory over Georgia.

No one’s cashing in all their chips just yet on Alabama’s playoff hopes, but the path just narrowed considerably. And if the same Alabama team that gave up 27 points in the second half to the Bulldogs prior to allowing the Commodores to have their way at the point of attack, bowl season in Orlando sounds more fitting for a squad who now must reassess everything this week.