Americans eye the economy from kitchen tables and hourly jobs as they plan their votes

Some Americans are voting for their wallets. Others are voting for democracy. And there are those who just aren’t sure.

That’s what several people profiled in NBC News’ “Checkbook Chronicles” over the last four months shared days ahead of an election that offers two profoundly different economic visions.

Vice President Kamala Harris calls for expanded support for caregivers, homebuyers and entrepreneurs, paired with curbs on grocery and drug prices. Former President Donald Trump wants more tariffs and tax cuts, an unprecedented immigration crackdown and slashed government spending that he says would spur growth and lower costs.

While many economists favor Harris’ agenda, she has struggled to sustain a decisive lead among voters on economic matters. Meanwhile, the economy itself remains solid, even though major cost pressures linger. Inflation is virtually back to normal, the job market is cooling but stable and consumer optimism is bounding higher.

There’s more to it under the surface, though. Here’s how a few ordinary Americans see things from where they’re sitting.

On the upswing

Stefanie Longenecker, 43, has been breathing a little easier as inflation slows.

After leaving the workforce during the pandemic because she couldn’t find affordable child care, Longenecker said her family has been economizing. But her husband recently got a new job that pays more per hour and with lower health care costs.

The role offers less overtime, causing a slight decline in their monthly income, but she doesn’t mind the trade-off: He can spend more time with the family, and she’s started doing some freelance writing to pull in more money.

While household finances have been tight, “I’m really happy with the government doing what it seems like they can do, and unfortunately they’re not getting recognized,” she said of the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies. “Things are absolutely trending in a good direction.”

Education, reproductive rights and health care access are bigger priorities than economic issues for Longenecker, who lives in Palmyra, Pennsylvania, and is backing Harris. Still, she worries her finances could worsen under Trump, especially if he puts tariffs of up to 20% on all foreign goods and 60% on imports from China.

“The idea of tariffs, to me, is horrifying and could tank our economy,” Longenecker said. “If people think that things are expensive now, wait until the prices go up 20%, 30%, 40%.”

Things are also looking up for Stefany Serna, 33, a server at a steakhouse in Coral Gables, Florida. Her husband’s side gig has been “flourishing,” giving them steady monthly income and a glimpse of a future beyond waiting tables. He’s a fellow server but has a background in music production and has been uploading “deep relaxation” tracks to Spotify and YouTube.

“We’ve been trying for many years, but this one avenue that he did finally — it gave birth to something,” Serna said. She declined to say how much the music project is earning but said it’s letting her husband pick up fewer shifts.

Serna herself has begun working on a mobile bartending business. And while pursuing their solo ventures has required some tight budgeting, she said they see it as a long-term play.

“I don’t want to be on my feet every day,” she said. “We want to build a family. I would prefer to be at home.”

A self-described Republican since high school, Serna isn’t too keen on either candidate but prefers Trump. “His first term was good, even though we had Covid,” she said. “I feel like the economy was a little better.”

Times still tough

Lucy Haverfield is planning to sell her home in Alva, Florida, and leave the state for good.

The 71-year-old widow was already struggling to get by on $2,400 a month in Social Security payments. But now her homeowners insurance rates and property taxes are set to go up at least $2,000 combined next year, which a roughly $50 bump in monthly Social Security checks won’t cover.

“With the income that I have right now, I can only absorb so much,” Haverfield said. She weathered only minor damage from Hurricane Milton but said she isn’t sure how many more intensifying hurricane seasons she can sustain.

“Florida is going to be left to people who have the financial wherewithal to withstand repeated beatings and absorb all the insurance costs,” she said. “Every year it’s up and up and up.”

Insurers had already been hiking rates and fleeing the state before the back-to-back punches from hurricanes Helene and Milton, but industry experts now warn that Floridians’ costs could surge higher still.

Where Haverfield moves next could hinge on the election. She said she’s considering Canada if Trump wins, but not necessarily for economic reasons.

“If Trump were handing out gold coins, it wouldn’t matter because it’s about: Do I want a democracy or not? That’s what I’m voting on,” she said. “I’m not voting on somebody who is going to make my electric bill better. I wish they would, but at least you have a chance if you have a democracy.”

Georgia resident Nancy Breland, 72, hasn’t seen any financial relief either. Her monthly retirement income of around $7,600 is comfortable, but homeowners insurance, utilities and long-term care costs are weighing on her.

As her husband’s cognitive health declines, she fears having to dip into savings to cover his care. Her homeowners insurer recently canceled her policy, sending her scrambling to find another provider as Helene and then Milton headed her way. She spent $8,000 on repairs after the storms, and her monthly electric bill went from around $220 earlier this year to $360 now, even as her usage has gone down. Grocery bills also remain high.

Breland voted reluctantly for Trump, whom she called a narcissist. “I didn’t feel like I had much choice,” she said, adding of Harris, “I don’t think she’s got the backbone for the job.”

Breland isn’t optimistic that her financial picture will change under the next administration. “I’ve got bigger things going on that are way more stressful,” she said. “Whoever wins, I just hope they do the best job that they can and we’re surprised by the outcome.”

A mixed picture

Otis Keys II, a Dallas-area UPS truck driver, is looking for stability. The 41-year-old said he resumed full-time shifts in mid-October after a series of schedule changes that he expected would lower his full-year income by at least $20,000.

He’s now grossing $2,500 each week, less than the $3,100 he was able to hit before the carrier’s overtime crackdown, and feeling a bit more upbeat about replenishing his nearly depleted savings.

“It’s my second week back,” he said. “So it’s a work in progress right now, trying to get back to the game plan.”

Keys, who has shouldered steep grocery costs for three teenagers, hasn’t decided how to vote this year. “I know this sounds crazy, but I got a couple of days to get that figured out,” he said.

Keys said Harris has put forth clearer economic policies, like her plan to offer first-time homebuyers $25,000 in downpayment assistance. His rent for his four-bedroom home is rising to $1,850 in January, and he wants to own his next place.

While Keys said Trump’s “pro-America” stance appeals to him, he has been leaning toward Harris since watching her debate performance and was put off by the former president’s anti-union comments in a conversation this summer with multibillionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whom Trump praised for sacking striking workers.

Many Americans will breathe a sigh of relief after casting their ballots, but Keys said he won’t rest easy until after Nov. 16, when his local Teamsters chapter will vote on its next president — a decision that “is impacting me more than anything,” said Keys, who’s voting to unseat an incumbent official.

“UPS is a giant,” he said. “We have to be three times as strong and stern when it comes to holding the company to the contract.”

Becky Melvin, 61, said the daily anxiety about her future has started to lift for the first time in years. The Jacksonville, Florida, resident had been picking up orders for groceries and other items on delivery apps after getting laid off from a six-figure public relations job shortly before the pandemic.

It was tough going, but in September she began taking classes to become a 911 operator and dispatcher, a role she said was completely outside her comfort zone.

“I had to go find an opportunity at an agency that would hire someone over age 60, who still thinks I have something to offer,” she said. “For me, that’s helping my community and my police officers.”

The job entails a slight pay cut from the roughly $50,000 she was netting on the delivery apps after taxes, but Melvin finally has health insurance again, as well as a pension. For the first time in years, she was recently able to pay for a new glasses prescription.

But Melvin feels she’s still climbing back toward the financial stability she enjoyed before her layoff, which is factoring into her vote for Trump.

“I don’t believe [Harris] has any idea how to help the economy,” she said. “Most people are saying, ‘Are you better off than four years ago?’ That’s all that really matters.”