Analyzing the AL Central: A Midseason Gambling Report Card

The Cleveland Guardians have separated themselves as the team to beat in the American League Central with a record of 58-37. Their .611 winning percentage leads the AL and ranks second in MLB behind Philadelphia (.646). What should bettors make of this? They lead our midseason AL Central gambling report card.

Not far behind are the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals, who are on pace to surpass expectations from spring training and turn the Central into one of baseball’s most competitive divisions.

Chicago White Sox

Oh, where to begin?

Expectations for the White Sox were already incredibly low coming into this Major League Baseball season, and yet they are still on pace to finish below their projected win total of 61.5.

Chicago owns the majors’ worst record at 27-71 and has been outscored by a whopping 177 runs. It limped into the All-Star break a loser of four straight and eight of 10.

With their two best MLB players outfielder Luis Robert and pitcher Garrett Crochet possibly on the trading block, things are only going to get worse. That’s the painful truth.

Cleveland Guardians

Are the Guardians legitimate World Series contenders? At worst, they’re the top team in the AL Central, which speaks to the job Stephen Vogt has done as a first-year manager.

Cleveland (58-37) is percentage points ahead the Baltimore Orioles for the AL’s best record and has the second-most victories in baseball behind Philadelphia (62-34).

As such, Cleveland’s odds of winning the World Series have skyrocketed from +7500 to +1300. Only five clubs hit the All-Star break as bigger favorites.

The Guardians have the league’s leading hitter in outfielder Steven Kwan (.352) and two of the top run producers in third baseman Jose Ramirez (77 RBI) and first baseman Josh Naylor (70 RBI) per MLB stats.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers continue to hover around .500, which aligns with most projections from spring training that had them at 80.5 wins in our AL Central gambling report card.

They finished the first half strong, going 5-2 against the Guardians and Dodgers to climb back to 47-50. That’s the closest they’ve been to .500 since June 16 when they were 34-37.

Left-hander Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.41 ERA) is a legitimate ace, not to mention the prohibitive favorite for AL Cy Young at -130.

However, sitting 7.0 games behind Boston for the third wild card, Detroit will need to pick up the pace to make their first MLB playoff appearance in a decade. At +1000 to qualify, oddsmakers are clearly skeptical of that happening.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals rank among baseball’s most pleasant surprises. They’re in the thick of the postseason hunt at 52-45, just 2.0 games out of the wild card. They also are the division’s best baseball team against the run line, covering at a rate of 55.7%.

With a plus-60 run differential, which is fourth-best in the AL, they seem here to stay.

Kansas City improved its bullpen last week, dealing for Nationals reliever Hunter Harvey. But more work is needed before the July 30 trade deadline.

MLB odds today have the Royals — who were projected for only 73.5 wins following a 56-106 finish in 2023 — at +140 to make the playoffs.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins continue to nip on Cleveland’s heels, sitting 4.5 games back of first place. While the Guardians are -185 favorites to win the division, Minnesota (54-42) remains on pace to surpass its projected win total of 86.5 in our AL Central gambling report card.

Of course, the Twins need to stay healthy. Third baseman Royce Lewis (10 HR and 1.039 OPS in just 24 games) has already made repeated trips to the MLB injured list. On top of that, shortstop Carlos Correa, who’s dealing with plantar fasciitis, opted out of the All-Star Game.

Without them, Minnesota’s fortunes would take a big hit.

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