Anthony Albanese is trying to have a bet each way on gambling ads. Chances are he’s about to lose | Malcolm Farr

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is in danger of accusations he has flinched from a genuine reduction in harm from excessive sport gambling in an effort to protect his re-election punt from hostile Big Media.

That hostility could be expected should tougher restrictions on gambling advertising carve big chunks from revenue of close to $240m a year taken in by TV, radio and online outlets.

And a senior minister, Bill Shorten, on Monday night repeated the industry concerns without quibble.

The minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme told ABC’s Q&A the advertising income was needed by some media companies to stay afloat.

“Some of you might say, ‘Well, bugger them, just don’t worry, we don’t need free-to-air media … But free-to-air media is in diabolical trouble,” Shorten said.

Rev Tim Costello of the Alliance for Gambling Reform on Tuesday showed no sympathy for existential fears, telling the ABC: “It’s as logical as saying, ‘Free-to-air is in trouble. Let’s bring back tobacco ads’.”

There is no doubt lobbying by media companies has contributed to factors causing delays in government action. And the delays are getting embarrassingly extended.

The roadblocks have prevented the Albanese government fulfilling a pledge to legislate a brace of limitations on sport gambling within six months of an alarming report by a parliamentary inquiry.

The inquiry reported in June last year.

As well as Big Media, some of the most powerful men in the country – the AFL and NRL tsars – would be likely to tell punters the Albanese government is cramping their freedom to bet, and cutting funding to football promotion.

Rugby league chief Peter V’landys last year memorably described his code as “wagering content” and defended gambling as “entertainment”.

This coming February, four major NRL teams will again head for Las Vegas for games.

But sport will be a secondary consideration.

The NRL wants to tap into the massive online betting industry in the US in the hope that gamblers who might not know a knock-on from a dummy-half will pour money into the foreign wagering content.

It is a shameless pursuit of gambling cash with no room for significant curbs on advertising – here or in the US.

Add to these two forces confronting the Albanese government the resistance of major newspaper groups – News Corp and Nine newspapers in particular.

The government has made some moves to restrict noxious advertising. It wants a cap allowing two gambling promotions an hour of broadcast until 10pm, and banning ads an hour before and after a live sports broadcast.

The Coalition opposition agrees. However, it would be difficult to get a cross-aisle accord on a full ban.

Last June, Nationals Barnaby Joyce and Keith Pitt vigorously opposed a full clean-out of what was “a legitimate industry” that could damage media groups.

“You can moralise to an extent but I’d need some convincing (to favour a total ban).”

At present, gambling ads are banned from five minutes before play until five minutes after, between 5am and 8.30pm. After 8.30pm, the ads can appear before and after play and during official breaks.

Televised sport must ensure no gambling identities sneak into shot unannounced, and all broadcasters must be sure representatives of gambling organisations are clearly identified as such and don’t take up commentary.

This package – existing and proposed – is nothing like the total ban within three years as proposed by the parliamentary inquiry. That time frame was intended to give free-to-air media and the like plenty of opportunity to engage other sponsors.

During all this debate there has been no solid dissent from the argument that individuals and families are damaged and left distraught by gambling addiction – an addiction encouraged by advertising.

This harm is so severe it would ordinarily provoke rapid and widespread response, even if that was merely to reduce the one million gambling advertisements broadcast each year.

Australia will have an election next year, probably in May.

The political risks for Anthony Albanese over a full ad ban could appear if he doesn’t introduce one – and if he does.

A ban would provoke counterattacks from media groups and the HQ figures of major sporting codes. And both groups have considerable influence.

The risk from not doing anything is the impression the Albanese government cares more for its own survival than that of individuals lured into life-wrecking addiction.

Add to those the perception that a government dedicated to easing cost-of-living pressures has dodged a means of discouraging people to keep their money for essentials and not waste it on wagering, which delivers few wins and drains wallets.

It is a toss-up for Albanese and without concrete action by him one of those tagline warnings on gambling ads might suit: “Chances are you are about to lose.”