Apple Stock Slips as Analysts Say iPhone 16 May Be Off to a Slow Start

Key Takeaways

• Early pre-order data for the iPhone 16 looks disappointing when compared to last year’s iPhone 15 launch, several analysts said Monday.

• The various models of the new smartphone have shorter average delivery times across a number of key markets, suggesting a combination of lower sales volume and higher supply.

• Sales may be trending towards the higher-priced Pro and Pro Max models, which could offset lower sales volume.

Early Wall Street feedback on demand for Apple’s newest iPhone suggests the newest models might not be flying off the shelves.

Analyzing delivery lead times and whether models of the iPhone 16 will be available in stores on Friday as scheduled, several analysts said Monday that early indications appear disappointing for Apple’s (AAPL) latest smartphone.

Analysts from J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Barclays, and Bank of America on Monday said that iPhone 16 pre-orders, which started Friday, are seeing shorter estimated delivery times than last year’s new iPhone 15s. That’s likely due to factors including both higher U.S. supply and lower demand, the analysts said.

Sales Volume Looks Lower, But More Pro, Pro Max Sales Could Offset

The faster delivery times suggest lower sales volume, but Jefferies analysts said that sales may be shifting toward the more expensive Pro and Pro Max models, which could help offset lower overall volume.

The analysts also said their data showed wider availability of the Pro and Pro Max models in several U.S. cities when compared to last year.

“We cannot rule out that Apple did allocate more supply to the US since Apple Intelligence will be available first there, but it will unlikely be massively more since it still needs to meet usually strong initial demand in other major markets, [including] China,” Jefferies analysts wrote. “Even so, it still suggests Apple has overestimated demand in the US for its AI features. That is not good news.”

Analysts were largely positive on the long-term upgrade cycle that the iPhone 16 should kick off, especially once the AI features that were central to the launch event are rolled out.

Apple shares were nearly 3% lower Monday afternoon. The tech giant also received FDA approval for the sleep apnea detection feature in its newest smartwatch operating system on Monday.

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