Apple Vision Pro Gets a Reality Check

Many of us have moved on from the Vision Pro less than three months after its buzzy launch, but Apple can not. The company slashed its 2024 sales expectations for the Vision Pro to nearly half what the market expected for this year, according to a new report from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on Tuesday. As initial hype fades, we may be entering the much-anticipated “flop era” for Vision Pro.

“Apple cut orders before launching Vision Pro in non-US markets, which means that demand in the US market has fallen sharply beyond expectations, making Apple take a conservative view of demand in non-US markets,” Kuo said in Tuesday’s analyst note.

The longtime analyst says Apple cut its expectations on 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400,000 – 450,000 units, far less than the market consensus of 700,000 – 800,000 units. Mind you, Apple reportedly sold 200,000 Vision Pros during its first 10 days on the market. Sales gradually slowed down, and Apple is only expected to sell 200-250k more Vision Pros for the rest of the year. Kuo says 2025 doesn’t look much better, as Apple expects headset shipments to decline next year.

I think it’s safe to say the Vision Pro is in a flop era. The launch of Apple’s premiere headset was exciting, and in a few years, Apple will release the V2 of its headset which will probably be even better. But for now, it’s flopping, so get used to negative articles on Vision Pro sales and performance (just like the one you’re reading now).

Kuo says Apple is reviewing and adjusting its “product roadmap” around the Vision Pro, and says there might not be a new version until after 2025. Until then, we’re all stuck with the original Vision Pro, which is widely found to be expensive, uncomfortable to wear, and lacking in key applications such as Netflix and Spotify. As the initial excitement around a new Apple headset wears off, the reality is setting in that most people have little reason to buy an imperfect $3,500 headset.

This period has been somewhat expected. After all, mixed reality headsets are niche products, and even a behemoth such as Apple can’t immediately make them mainstream. However, Apple appears to be falling short of even its own expectations. Bloomberg reported Monday that some Apple retail stores sell just a handful of Vision Pros in an entire week.

The initial launch of Vision Pro gave a glimmer of hope for the future of spatial computing. Apple showcased its beautiful headset design and impressive eye-tracking technology. However, most people have no reason to buy this right now. This technology very well may be the future of computing, and I have no doubts Apple will innovate on its shortcomings. In the meantime, the headsets are flopping.