Apple’s Vision Pro Is Amazing But Nobody Wants One

After much anticipation and fanfare, in February 2024 Apple released its contribution to the mixed reality headset market. Without a doubt, the Vision Pro is a remarkable technological achievement. Apple believed it was the product that would give the company a dominating position in spacial computing—the blending of the physical and digital worlds. However, the marketplace has not embraced the Vision Pro and recent news out of Apple suggests they are revisiting their roadmap. What happened to Apple’s dream for mass adoption of spacial computing and what can we learn from it?

At First The Experience Is Nothing Less Than Wow

Spend 30-minutes in an Apple store experiencing their Vision Pro demonstration and it’s clear that it’s a computing and engineering marvel. Its specifications are off the charts: two OLED displays with 23 million pixels, 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones, and an M2 chip. Phew!

Apple has packed a lot into such a small footprint and the sensory experience exceeds expectations. For example, in the demo, a user is transported to a rehearsal room with Alicia Keys and her band, and it feels and sounds close to magical. This alone is worth the 30-minute demo.

Using the Vision Pro as a computer enables the user to open multiple virtual screens of their favorite applications. These screens appear suspended in front of the user, and each can be easily zoomed in and out. Interacting includes special hand gestures like pinch and drag and many actions incorporate eye movement.

Engaging with the device is compelling, has a familiar Apple user interface feel, and the performance of each action feels natural and responsive.

Is There A Market Today For Spacial Computing?

Apple’s bet was that this rich, immersive and virtual experience would represent the next generation computing platform, and with their reputation for design and user-friendly utility, they would establish themselves quickly as a leader. Despite a phenomenal record of product successes, Apple missed the mark on this high-profile release. What exactly did they get wrong?

Apple’s Vision Pro wasn’t the first in this category. Not by a long way. The earliest head mounted displays for computing and virtual reality (VR), also known as VR headsets, go back to the 1960s.

More recently, in 2016, Sony released their PlayStation VR headsets and in 2018, Meta went to market with Oculus Go. While largely aimed at the gaming market, both Sony and Meta have had reasonable success, with 5 and 20 million units sold each to date, respectively. Recently, sales have slowed significantly, with Sony even stopping production while current inventory draws down.

Microsoft’s venture into VR with its much-vaunted HoloLens—achieved some limited success in an enterprise context, but ultimately shut down its mixed reality efforts in 2023.

Leaders like Sony, Meta, and Microsoft, despite all their resources and marketing clout, discovered a truth: the market size for VR headsets, while not trivial, is narrow and niche.

Did Apple and their cubicles full of analysts have access to market data that others didn’t?

It seems that Apple was betting that with an innovative product and a much wider set of uses, they could create a spacial computing mass market. To Apple’s credit, their reputation for building massive market demand has been impressive when looking at products such as the iPod, iPad, and iPhone, that collectively have shipped billions of units.

However, this year Apple is now anticipating selling only around 450,000 Vision Pros, far short of their first-year target of 800,000. Compare that to the 73 million Apple iPads that sold in their first year.

Most glaring on day one was the price of the Vision Pro. Starting at $3500, this number eclipsed Meta’s headset, for example, which was retailing for around $500. Sure, the features aren’t a completely fair one to one comparison, but Apple’s price point wasn’t even in the ballpark.

A small market and a high price point weren’t the only headwinds Apple faced.

Innovative Technology Isn’t Enough For Market Success

By offering a wide range of compelling uses, Apple was betting that large numbers of people would embrace spacial computing for their day-to-day work, learning, and entertainment needs. For this to happen, it required significant behavioral change. The evidence from other vendors just didn’t support this and it played out the same for Apple.

Not long after purchasing and overcoming the novelty factor, many users began pondering how they might use the device. This was compounded by the lack of Vision Pro-specific applications and media. It’s no surprise that Apple experienced a high number of returns, and more than a few units showed up on sites like eBay.

Typically excited interest in a new Apple product waned quickly too. Mentions on social media and Google searches dropped sharply within just a few short weeks.

Another issue that was difficult to overcome too was the form factor. While wearing a headset computer to play a game or engage in training for a short period of time might be acceptable, donning a headset for hours to surf the Web or watch a movie hasn’t been convincing. Many users reported that the headset didn’t offer a compelling upgrade versus their traditional setups.

It also doesn’t help that the Vision Pro is heavy at 1.4 pounds. That’s a lot of weight to strap around the head without discomfort for any length of time. More than a few people also reported health issues including motion sickness, black eyes, headaches, and eye strain from protracted use. Many of these issues are common complaints with the VR headset modality.

What’s Next For Spacial Computing And Vision Pro?

There’s a lot to love about Apple’s first-generation Vision Pro and to be fair it has many enthusiastic users. Anyone who uses the device for the first time is quickly struck at how the experience feels like a big leap forward.

But Apple’s sobering sales results, and that of other vendors, clearly suggests that in its current form, a mass market opportunity for spacial computing does not exist yet.

Great technology alone is not enough for market success.

Reports indicate that while Apple doesn’t plan a follow-up to this model of Vision Pro, they are not giving up on spacial computing and that a lower cost product with less features may emerge in a year or two. By that time, the market may be ready, and the compelling uses more obvious.

For spacial computing to succeed in the mass market it needs to solve problems and create experiences in a way that is affordable and with a form factor that is no more intrusive than wearing a pair of regular glasses.

The first prize though will go to the company that finally creates an immersive experience that doesn’t require any head gear.

Holodeck, anyone?