Armed Forces Bowl betting picks: Oklahoma vs. Navy gambling analysis

It’s the 22nd edition of the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. This year’s game sees the Oklahoma and Navy share the field of Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

The Sooners come into this game with a 6-6 record, hoping to get above .500 to finish the year. The Midshipmen stand at 9-3 with a goal of reaching double-digit wins for the first time since 2019.

Each week here on Sooners Illustrated, we breakdown the betting angles for every Oklahoma football outing. Here’s a look at the gambling aspects of this game between OU and Navy:

Game spread: Oklahoma favored by three points

Analysis- The Armed Forces Bowl is one that’s treated the service academies well. In fact, service academies have won three straight and five out of the last seven Armed Forces Bowls.

But Navy was actually the last service academy to lose in the Armed Forces Bowl back in 2016. The Midshipmen enter this year’s game as the underdogs and that shocks no one.

But Navy does have confidence in its ability to run the triple option offense against Oklahoma and understandably so. The Sooners are down some key players and don’t carry a ton of experience facing this system.

There’s reason to believe Navy could keep it close. But a three-point spread is minimal, to say the least, and it should be known both the Midshipmen and Sooners haven’t been in a ton of close contests this season.

These two teams played a combined total of just three games decided by one possession this season. Navy was the only FBS team in the country not to play a one-possession game, while Oklahoma played just three. The average deciding margin was 24.2 points per game for Navy and 20.3 points per game for Oklahoma.

So if separation is going to be created, it’d likely come from the OU side. The Sooners do defend well against the run and an Oklahoma play even provides some push insurance. Sooners feel like the safe move.

CK’s play- Oklahoma covers the three-point game spread

Confidence level- 5.4/10

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Game total- Over or under 43 combined points scored

Analysis- Will this game be played in under three hours? Jokes aside, a poor attempt at humor likely illustrates what the play should be here.

Both of these teams need to run the ball. Not want to, but -need- to run the rock.

The triple option offense for Navy is what it is. Oklahoma will be without plenty of experience at receiver and Michael Hawkins taking over at quarterback can generate explosive plays in the run game himself. Add in a running back room for OU that’s pretty reliable and an offensive line that’s improved a bit over the season, a shortened game with fewer points feels expected.

CK’s play- Under 43 combined points scored

Confidence level- 7.1/10