AUD to USD Forecast: Australian Service Sector Trends vs. US Jobs Data

Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase 4.0% in April year-on-year after rising 4.1% in March. Moreover, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to advance by 243k after a 303k jump in March. Softer-than-expected wage growth figures could refuel investor bets on a September Fed rate cut.

Weaker wage growth trends could reduce disposable income and impact consumer spending. Downward trends in consumer spending could dampen demand-driven inflation and allow the Fed to cut interest rates to ensure price stability.

However, investors should also consider the ISM Services PMI. Economists forecast the ISM Services PMI to increase from 51.4 to 52.0 in April. The services sector accounts for over 70% of the US economy and contributes to inflation. Beyond the headline number, employment, new orders, and input costs warrant attention.

Short-Term Forecast

Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on the US Jobs Report and ISM Services PMI. Softer-than-expected wage growth and input prices across the services sector could raise investor bets on a September Fed rate hike. In contrast, recent stats from Australia have fueled speculation about a more hawkish RBA rate path.

AUD/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

An Aussie dollar break above the $0.65760 resistance level would bring the $0.66 handle into play. A return to the 0.66 handle could give the bulls a run at the $0.66500 level.

Investors should consider the US Jobs Report and ISM Services PMI.

Conversely, an AUD/USD drop below the 200-day EMA could signal a fall to the 50-day EMA. A fall through the 50-day EMA could give the bears a run at the $0.64582 support level.

With a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 56.65, the AUD/USD may return to the $0.66500 handle before entering overbought territory.