Bad Gambling Advice: Week 5

As we veer into the full-on SEC portion of the schedule, well, I pick back up with the portion of my blogging job where I tell you who not to pick in games involving SEC teams.

Patrick says I’m 30-28 this season in the Pick ‘Em contest, so we’ll go with that. There.

Kentucky at Ole Miss (11:00 AM CT, ABC/ESPN+): Nobody is really, truly sure how good Ole Miss is, in large part because the Rebels haven’t played anybody better than Wake Forest. On the other hand, while playing said bad teams, Ole Miss has only surrendered one touchdown, and it is quite obvious that Kentucky’s inept offense is not about to score a bunch of points. Jaxson Dart won’t have a field day against Kentucky’s defense, but are you about to argue that they’re going to blow the JP game? Nope, didn’t think so.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 9

Picks: Ole Miss -17.5, Under 53

Oklahoma at Auburn (2:30 PM CT, ABC/ESPN+): And speaking of inept offenses, Oklahoma will have a new starting quarterback this week after former blue-chip recruit Jackson Arnold got yanked for a true freshman. Auburn would switch quarterbacks, but they already tried that, and, well, it turned out that the backup was in fact worse. The one threat to the under is the possibility of a bunch of defensive points and/or short drives caused by turnovers. As for who will win… well, I don’t feel good about either of these teams, so why not take the points on the home team?

Score Prediction: Auburn 21, Oklahoma 16

Picks: Auburn +1.5, Under 45

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (2:30 PM CT, ESPN, in Arlington, TX): Ah yes, time for the stupidest neutral-site game of the season. The SEC now has the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the Red River Shootout… and Jerry Jones Wastes A Fall Saturday In His Cold Corporate NFL Stadium. As far as the actual game goes, ah, hell, I still am not a believer in Arkansas. People forgot this because they beat Auburn, but they actually looked inept for most of that game, with Auburn simply looking inepter. Is that a word? Anyway, take the team that’s somewhat functional.

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 21

Picks: Texas A&M -4, Over 52

Mississippi State at Texas (3:15 PM CT, SEC Network): I am usually reticent to lay the points on a massive favorite, but Mississippi State has looked so, so bad this season that I cannot possibly justify picking them any time soon.

Score Prediction: Texas 49, Mississippi State 3

Picks: Texas -38.5, Under 62.5

Georgia at Alabama (6:30 PM CT, ABC/ESPN+): You really want to pick against Alabama at home? When they’re getting points? Are you an idiot?

Score Prediction: Alabama 28, Georgia 24

Picks: Alabama +2.5, Over 49

South Alabama at LSU (6:45 PM CT, SEC Network): Every year there’s at least one team that, while good on paper, I absolutely do not trust. LSU is that team this year.

Score Prediction: LSU 42, South Alabama 24

Picks: South Alabama +22, Over 65.5