Belgium imploded at the World Cup but expectations are different at Euro 2024

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Belgium’s 1-0 defeat by Slovakia on Monday was statistically the biggest upset in 64 years of the European Championship, as the world’s third-ranked team succumbed to the world number 48.

Only in the cold world of FIFA’s rankings matrix, devoid of any feeling or context, did it feel this seismic.

Belgium’s lofty position does not really correlate with where this team find themselves, still rebuilding after the 2022 World Cup debacle and enduring the growing pains that come with a changing of the guard.

This is not a Belgium team comparable to 2014 or 2018.

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In Brazil a decade ago they had a back four of Jan Vertonghen, Thomas Vermaelen, Vincent Kompany and Toby Alderweireld. Four centre-backs who were all at an elite level and whose usage as a flat back four would have been perfect in today’s football, where that has emerged as a new trend.

This week they lined up in Germany with a right side comprised of Timothy Castagne and Wout Faes — two defenders who were relegated from the Premier League with Leicester City just over a year ago — and a left side featuring Anderlecht’s 20-year Zeno Debast and 30-year-old winger Yannick Carrasco, now playing for Al-Shabab in Saudi Arabia. Carrasco is known for his adaptability, but he has never been considered a serious option as a right-footed left-back.

Belgium still have an array of talent in the forward line but in 2018 it was arguably the best trio in international football, with Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku their preferred line-up.

Hazard has retired and, even though De Bruyne is still one of the best creators in world football, he is, like Lukaku, the wrong side of 30 and has suffered injuries in recent years. The team has to be tailored to suit their strengths and physical limitations.

Coach Domenico Tedesco sought to do that against Slovakia by employing an asymmetrical shape out of possession, pushing Carrasco higher up the left flank and having Jeremy Doku drop into a wing-back role on the right-hand side to form a 3-4-3 shape.

It allowed Leandro Trossard to move forward and lead the press, sharing the workload with the two ageing superstars of the team.

Belgium did not play badly. Slovakia’s goal was self-inflicted after a poor pass from Orel Mangala and Tedesco’s side were the better team who, for over an hour, created chances consistently.

They looked a much more vibrant outfit than they did in Qatar, where they scored only one goal. Crucially, De Bruyne looked sharp and had many moments of class as he carved open Slovakia.

The issues lay with the final ball and the finishing. Lukaku was twice denied by VAR and was also guilty of squandering several inviting opportunities.

Vertonghen sought to calm emotions and offer perspective as he looked ahead to the first of two crunch games, against Romania tomorrow, with Ukraine to come next Wednesday.

“We deserved to win,” he said. “Three years ago, during the European Championship against Italy, we were dominated and had no chances. It’s no longer the case now. We had chances and two goals were disallowed. We still have two matches to play. We will manage to qualify. We’ll get there. We didn’t give up much against the Slovaks but we just didn’t take our chances.

“I am 100 per cent sure of it (progression). In Qatar we were physically overwhelmed against Canada in the World Cup, but not now. After the match against Morocco, there were more doubts than now.”

After the Slovakia defeat, De Bruyne was the last player to make his way over to Tedesco’s team huddle. He was apologising to fans, but they have two favourable games to avoid a repeat of Qatar, when they were eliminated at the group stage.

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He looked in a different headspace to when they limped to an opening 1-0 win against Canada two years ago.

“No chance, we’re too old,” he said during the World Cup, when asked if this could be the year of glory for the fading golden generation.

“I think our chance was 2018. We have a good team, but it is ageing. We lost some key players. We have some good new players coming, but they are not at the level other players were in 2018. I see us more as outsiders.”

When they lost 2-0 to Morocco the next day, Vertonghen was nearly as transparent in having a dig at his team-mate’s pessimism. “I guess we attack badly because we are also too old up front,” he said.

The elimination that came soon after was followed by a fallout defined by tensions between some senior members of the squad, but Tedesco has eliminated much of that sub-plot with his bold squad selection.

They are still the fifth most-capped team at Euro 2024 but, while six of the seven leading appearance-makers are all still active players, only De Bruyne and Lukaku featured in the opening game.

Thibaut Courtois was left out of the squad completely following a public falling-out with Tedesco. So, too, were 35-year-old Alderweireld and 37-year-old Dries Mertens — the former Tottenham Hotspur defender making history at Royal Antwerp by winning their first league title in 66 years and the former Napoli talisman leading Galatasaray to a Turkish record points total with a league-high 18 assists.

Toby Alderweireld was one of the players who endured the pain of elimination at the 2022 World Cup (David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images)

Tedesco has sought to usher in a new era, but it is telling that after just one game there is already talk about whether Vertonghen, 37 and 35-year-old Axel Witsel, a midfielder repackaged as a centre-back who reversed his retirement to be available for this tournament, could be drafted in at the heart of the defence.

This does not feel like a team on the precipice of melodrama but neither does it feel like a fresh team ready to become European champions.

(Top photo: Ryan Pierse – UEFA via Getty Images)