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The defending national champion Michigan Wolverines begin their title defense against Mountain West power Fresno State in Ann Arbor on Saturday night.

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bet365 bonus code NYPNEWS pick: Fresno State-Michigan

No. 9 Michigan opens the season with a home game against the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday night and the Wolverines as 21-point favorites.

That spread makes sense, but I’m leaning with under 45.5 total points for this bet.

I expect Michigan to suffocate Fresno State on defense and play a ball-control style of offense that limits possessions.

Look for the Wolverines to heavily lean on the running game, especially considering they haven’t named a full-time starting quarterback and are expected to play both Alex Orji and Davis Warren.

With two quarterbacks getting reps, I don’t think Michigan will pull away for a traditional blowout win. Plus, the Bulldogs are one of the better Group of Five teams and should provide some level of resistance.

The Wolverines also have one of the best defenses in the country, so there’s no reason for the offense to air it out and risk turnovers.

Led by the elite defensive tackle duo of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, Michigan’s defense should be just as stingy as it was last year when it only gave up 9.5 points per game.

It’s also instructive to look at Michigan’s non-conference games against Group of Five teams last season. The Wolverines beat East Carolina, 30-3, in Week 1, topped UNLV, 35-7 in the next game and defeated Bowling Green, 31-6, in Week 3.

Even with a future first-round pick at QB in J.J. McCarthy, Michigan never got to 40 points in those games and all of those games finished well below 45 total points.

Look for this to be a defensive game without many possessions and take the under using bet365 bonus code NYPNEWS.

Pick: UNDER 45.5 points (-110)

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