Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?

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In today’s big story, betting on the presidential election is all the rage. Can it keep the momentum going?

What’s on deck:

But first, wanna bet?

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The big story

Presidential bets

We’re less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets.

Platforms allowing users to bet on the US presidential race have become the surprise star of election season, writes Business Insider’s Matthew Fox. And it could eventually change how we view any potential outcome, not just future elections.

Kalshi, which has attracted more than $100 million in election-related bets, is currently one of the most popular apps in the Apple App Store. The trading app Robinhood also got in on the action on Monday.

Kalshi’s legal victory in October over the CFTC to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. But predictions markets are also spiking abroad where they’ve existed for years.

Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen $2 billion in wagers this month, up from $533 million in September, according to The Block. Last year, the website averaged less than $20 million in monthly trading volume.

The rise of election-betting markets hasn’t been without controversy.

A “whale” trader betting on former President Donald Trump to win the election grabbed headlines and drew conspiracy theories. Polymarket confirmed the user was a French national with trading experience betting on Trump “based on personal views of the election.”

The betting market’s biggest tests might come after the election.

Supporters of prediction markets say they’re more accurate than traditional polls, citing their ability to quickly adapt to the latest news and the fact participants are invested in the outcome.

This election will serve as a good test of that theory, as there’s a wide gap between the two approaches. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race.

Should Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis. Nate Silver, one of the most well-known polling analysts, is already an advisor to Polymarket.

But a presidential race only happens once every four years. What about the rest of the time?

If the past few years have taught us anything, this country loves to gamble. From crypto to meme stocks to sports, young men, in particular, are happy to bet on just about anything.

Prediction markets’ business model can lean into that theme. On Kalshi, you can currently wager on whether the Tesla robotaxi will be released before 2026 or if the US will ban TikTok before May.

News brief

Top headlines

3 things in markets

1. Wall Street has high hopes for Meta. Thanks to the company’s AI optimization, analysts generally expect positive figures from Meta’s third-quarter earnings report today. Bank of America has said the stock is a top AI pick, and investors are keeping an eye on AI growth opportunities.
2. Citadel’s playing the long game with its shorts. Justin Lubell, the hedge fund’s global equities head, said the firm’s longest-running equities group made more money shorting stocks than its long-term investments in recent years. Lubell said the strategy benefits from the lack of competition on the short side.
3. Two of Wall Street’s top executives speculate on Trump’s bid for a second term. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, who has endorsed Donald Trump, thinks the former president would be “efficient and effective” during his second go around. Fellow billionaire and Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin expects Trump to win next week.

3 things in tech

1. Can LinkedIn save us from hiring hell? The platform wants to help job-seekers apply smarter, not harder, by using AI to optimize the process. The goal is quality over quantity: LinkedIn hopes you’ll apply to fewer jobs, but the ones you’ll swing for will be better matches.
2. Amazon Web Services’ Graviton chips are thriving. In 2018, AWS launched Graviton, its own line of homegrown central processing unit chips for data-center servers. Now, 90% of AWS’s largest server customers have become Graviton users, a company executive told BI.
3. Five Apple Intelligence features you can try out now on your iPhone. Some of the highly anticipated AI tools include one that helps summarize long messages, one that limits disruptions, and another that can edit randos out of your photos.

3 things in business

1. How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact what you pay for housing. Affordable housing is one of America’s top economic concerns heading into the election. Here’s how each candidate’s proposed policies would affect housing supply, first-time home buyers, urban vs. rural housing, and action against big landlords.
2. Alphabet surpassed its third-quarter earnings expectations. Google’s parent company delivered beats on revenue, earnings per share, its advertising business, and Google Cloud revenue. The search giant is all-in on AI — CEO Sundar Pichai said more than a quarter of the company’s new code is created by AI and then checked by employees.
3. Is X being influenced by Elon Musk or its users? Musk is self-proclaimed “super MAGA.” And X, the social media platform he owns, is more likely to show content from right-leaning accounts, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. But it’s unclear whether the platform is showing users what they want to see or what Musk wants them to see.

What’s happening today

• Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, and other companies report earnings.
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Q3 economic growth data.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.