Biden needs his high-stakes debate gamble to pay off, even if it won’t upend the race

National polling depicts the race as a virtual dead heat. There’s been less polling of battleground states, but on average, Trump holds a narrow lead in the ones expected to determine the race. According to RealClearPolitics’ averages, Michigan and Wisconsin are too close to call while Trump holds an extremely narrow lead in Pennsylvania.

Studies have shown that debates have only a modest effect on the outcome of presidential elections. Voters are often swayed more when they know less about a candidate. Americans don’t need to get to know either man. In fact, it’s possible that the decisive swath of voters could be people who loathe them both.

Biden continues to face questions about whether he’ll be replaced. (He won’t.) The lingering doubts are largely due to factors like the president’s abysmal approval ratings, which have never recovered from the post-Afghanistan withdrawal. At this point, Biden and his allies have also massively outspent Trump. Their attack-ad advantage is set to dissipate in the face of Trump’s gigantic fundraising haul after becoming the first former president convicted of a felony.

The Times reported that Biden’s team hopes the debate will jolt Americans into paying more attention to the race. History has shown that the traditional fall presidential debates were some of the few live, non-sporting events watched by tens of millions of Americans. Studies have also shown that debate watchers tended to be people who were already politically engaged — not usually the groups that decided elections.

No one knows what Trump is going to do

Biden knows his best chance of benefiting from his gamble will be across the stage. His campaign even chose the podium position over the final speaking order, handing Trump the last word of the night.

Many incumbent presidents have struggled in their first debate (just ask Obama or, better yet, Trump), but Biden has spent days preparing at Camp David for his first exchange with Trump since 2020. Trump, never one to want to be seen as overprepared, said on Tuesday that his whole life had been debate prep.

“I’m not sure you can lock yourself in a room for two weeks, or one week, or two days and really learn what you have to know,” Trump told Corey Lewandowski, his former campaign manager, during an interview on Newsmax.

Americans aren’t surrounded by the crush of Trump news like they once were. A breakout moment could easily remind voters why they soured on the former reality-TV star in the first place.

Trump’s over-the-top, constantly interrupting performance in the first 2020 debate was widely panned. Now, Biden has a record of his own. Republicans are nudging Trump to train his focus on lighting the president on immigration and the economy, issues that polls show he has a big advantage on.

Staying on message has never been part of the Trump brand. The former president has recently tried to pivot a little by playing the traditional-expectations game before the debate. The former president has talked up his successor despite spending years portraying him as too feeble to do the job. Trump’s allies are also working the referees, the CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, in an effort that would’ve made the late Bobby Knight blush.

But there’s always a but. After all, we’re talking about the man who talked about the size of his penis during a 2016 GOP-primary debate.

Trump, his senior aides, and official GOP social-media accounts are pushing a far-right conspiracy that Biden is going to juice before the debate like a 1990s-era MLB star. The former president has even demanded that Biden take a drug test.

If that becomes the night’s story, Biden would be happier than getting a double scoop. And then, his bet could pay off.