Big Buccaneers Gambling Guide: Week Seven – Bucs Report

It’s Monday Night Football and all eyes turn to Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers. The 4-2 Bucs are hosting the 4-2 Baltimore Ravens in a showdown between top five teams in the NFL. This looks to be not only one of the best matchups of the week, but one of the best games you will likely find all year.

However, if you’re looking to add a little something extra to this game then there are several bets I like. With big names all over the field, including two MVP front runners, there is a lot of action to be had. This week, I am rolling with a five leg parlay so you have plenty of options to pick and choose from.

So here is my week seven Big Bucs Gambling Guild.

Baker Mayfield over 253.5 passing yards

The Ravens are giving up more passing yards than just about anyone. Despite having big names in the secondary such as Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore has been carved up through the air at times. Especially on the outside with their starting corners.

This is great news for a quarterback who leads the NFL in touchdown passes entering week seven and a pair of wide receivers who were tied for the NFL lead in touchdown catches. The trio of Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have been one of the most dangerous trios in the NFL this season. This matchup is one that should favor them continuing that dominance. 

While it’s unclear what pass catcher will be the one to do the damage on a week to week basis with so many mouths to feed, we do know who will be throwing them the ball. The Bucs are an offense that wants to throw the ball early to open up the run late. This means Mayfield will have plenty of opportunity to hit the over on this number. 

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 touchdown passes

This bet goes hand in hand with the previous one. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs passing offense is good and the Ravens pass defense is not. Again, this is a favorable matchup for the Buccaneers.

However, this bet is also a testament to the Ravens rushing defense. Baltimore has had the best run defense in the NFL this season. They control the line of scrimmage and have the linebackers to flow to the ball and tackle. This is the strength of the Ravens defense.

This means that the Bucs probably won’t score much on the ground. Especially considering that teams tighten up in the red zone, it will probably be more difficult to score on the ground when things are more condensed. This means potentially more red zone fades to Mike Evans, screen passes to Rachaad White and jump balls to Cade Otton.

Over 49.5 total points

So far, I’ve talked a lot about how the Bucs are probably going to score a lot through the air. It shouldn’t be surprising as they were tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns scored entering the week. This Buccaneers offense is very good.

However, it’s less talked about that the team they were tied with is the Ravens. And while the Bucs are proficient at moving the ball through the air, Baltimore is great at moving the ball on the ground. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry this looks like the best run game in the NFL.

Now the Bucs are equipped to limit this to a degree. Guys like Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey give them the ability to win up front and make plays in the backfield. However, limit and stop are two very different things. I expect a lot of points from both teams in this game.

Sterling Shepard over 13.5 receiving yards

The Ravens are a well coached team. They are very aware of who the Bucs are and what they will try to be doing in this game. So of course, they will do everything they can to take that away.

This means that Evans and Godwin will draw a lot of attention. It also means that guys like Sterling Shepard will be more of an afterthought. With the amount of trust and familiarity that Mayfield has with Shepard, this projects for him to be able to do some damage.

It’s also worth mentioning that Shepard did not have a good week last week. He had two stupid penalties that put the team in a difficult situation and he will be looking to make up for that this week. With those factors combined, I expect him to clear this relatively low number. 

Isaiah Likely over 26.5 receiving yards

Look, it can’t all be good for the Bucs. The Ravens are a great team led by a two time MVP quarterback, so you know that they are going to get theirs too. Especially when the Buccaneers have an obvious weakness at coverage in the middle.

I do think the Bucs will utilize more safeties in this game with more dime looks to help make up for that. However, the Ravens use a lot of tight ends to try and keep the opponents base defense on the field and make their linebackers match up with them.

This means that Isaiah Likely, who is a very good pass catcher, will probably be matched up against K.J. Britt and Lavonte David often. This is an advantage for the Ravens. I expect Likely to clear this number comfortably with a quarterback who loves to target the tight ends.

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