Heartbreak and heartburn have been the common denominators for Treasure State teams and fans in the FCS title game the past two decades.
Five times our beloved state has had a representative competing in the showcase showdown. Five times that representative has come up empty, with the Montana Grizzlies falling short at the end of the 2004, 2008, 2009 and 2023 seasons and the Bobcats at the end of the 2021 campaign.
Lately it’s been Dakota teams that have given the Bobcats and Grizzlies fits in the final. Quarterback Tommy Mellott and his Bobcats lost to North Dakota State in the title game on Jan. 8, 2022 in Frisco, Texas. Quarterback Clifton McDowell and the Grizzlies lost to South Dakota State in the title game last January in Frisco.
It all adds up to extra incentive for a breakthrough when the Bobcats again face the Bison in the title game on Monday night. My guess is that a lot of FCS fans — including those that couldn’t care less about the state of Montana — will be pulling for MSU just because Dakota teams have won the ultimate prize so much in recent years (three in a row and 11 of the past 13).
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Montana State is a four-point favorite with its gaudy 15-0 record and high-octane offense. But Treasure State FCS fans know from experience that North Dakota State is tough as nails in all facets and beating them in the championship is like trying to take a chew bone away from a pit bull.
One area where the Cats have to improve from their home semifinal win over South Dakota is tackling. There were too many missed tackles.
In North Dakota State’s home semifinal win over South Dakota State, the Bison leaned heavily on the quarterback position. NDSU running backs were held to 61 net yards, but veteran QB Cam Miller made up for it with 93 yards rushing and three touchdown passes. He completed 13 of 19 attempts for 179 yards.
Montana State seems to have everything in place, offensively and defensively, to finally beat the Bison. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen
My lead-pipe-lock prediction is that fans on both sides are going to have trouble sleeping Monday night. Mainly because it’s going to be a nerve-racking close one right down to the end.
This football season has been a fun one for the three 406 MT Sports prognosticators. Congratulations to Montana State football beat writer Victor Flores for coming from behind to win.
For the championship, we will have a special guest picker in 406 MT Sports writer Carson Cashion. He will be in the weekly picking fray next season and he’s hoping to make a big debut splash by correctly predicting the Bison (gasp) will win Monday night.
Have a happy new year, everyone.
North Dakota State (13-2) vs. Montana State (15-0), 5 p.m. TV: ESPN. It was a long time ago but it merits mentioning: The Bison nearly knocked off coach Deion Sanders’ Colorado team in Boulder in late August. NDSU lost 31-26 but sent notice it will not be the least bit intimidated by any opponent or game situation anywhere. The Bison enjoyed a halftime lead in that one and just kept coming even when the situation looked bleak, trailing 31-20 with under 3 minutes left. That would make me nervous if I were a Bobcats fan. Vegas may not agree with me, but I see the Bison as a slight favorite heading into Monday’s game. They’ve got tradition on their side and a quarterback (Miller) that’s more experienced and proven than Mellott throwing the football in big games. Tommy’s big strength has always been his elusiveness in the run game. North Dakota State will try its darndest to make sure Mellott has to stay in the pocket and throw the football. The Bison will have limited success doing it, but I’m putting my faith in Touchdown Tommy and his improved passing skills. I’ll go with the Cats to win in a thriller. Speltz: Bobcats 30, Bison 27. Flores: Cats 34, Bison 28. Gogola: Cats 31, Bison 27. Cashion: NDSU 31, MSU 28.
Bill Speltz is Missoulian sports editor. Contact him at bill.speltz@406mtsports.com or on Twitter @billspeltz
