Big Ten Preview, Analysis & Best Bets

This is not your father’s Big Ten. It’s not even your older brothers’ Big Ten, but not to worry, we are here to break down all things regarding the new look conference. There are no more divisions, which is beneficial for schools like Penn State. They could have benefited from not having to play Ohio State and Michigan every season. Here is my Big Ten preview, analysis, and best bets!

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Big Ten Preview, Analysis & Best Bets

I think I speak for everyone when I say we are happy there will be a more competitive Big Ten championship in Indianapolis this year.

The Pac-12’s demise started with the exit of its top four teams. Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington enter year one with different expectations but one common goal—to prove they belong. Oregon is one of the best teams in the country, while the other three will undergo significant changes from player personnel to coaching.

Rather than doing team-by-team breakdowns, we will highlight a few teams at the top, the newcomers, and a best bet. These odds have been out for over six months, so be sure to shop around for the best numbers available. The numbers used in this article are more of a consensus.

Ohio State vs. Everyone

Ryan Day is 56-8 as head coach, including 39-3 in the Big Ten. If this were any other school, he would likely have a statue already being built, but this is THE Ohio State University. Not having a national title since 2015 and not beating your archrival for three straight years negates that lofty win-loss record.

On paper, this team is one of the best in the country. They return a solid amount of production while bringing in some monster transfers on both sides of the ball. My overarching concern is the quarterback position. Can Will Howard be good enough to take the Buckeyes to the next level?

Ryan Day can scheme it up with the best, but sometimes you just have to have the right quarterback. Obviously, Kyle McCord was not that guy, as he transferred to Syracuse. Four offensive line starters return, along with an elite 1-2 running back duo. Howard may not be asked to do as much as McCord, but my biggest concern is whether he can answer when his number is called.

The defense is their strength by far. They bring back nine starters and are deep at almost every position. Not to mention, you add the best safety in the country (Caleb Downs) to an already loaded defense. They were top 10 in success rate allowed and points per game allowed.

This defense has a chance to be even better. There is no issue with this side of the ball, but can the offense do its job to help?

Contending Newcomers

Oregon

I have Oregon as the best team in the Big Ten by a small margin. The biggest difference between the two is the quarterback position. Dillion Gabriel is going to break every NCAA passing and total yards record by season’s end. He also has better skill position talent and has the benefit of hosting Ohio State in October.

The secondary was a concern last year but got huge upgrades with transfers Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) and Kam Alexander (UTSA). It also helps that they will not face a gauntlet of NFL quarterbacks like they did last year in the Pac-12.

The Ducks’ schedule is favorable. I have them favored by 14+ points in ten games, and their toughest road game is against a Michigan team going through massive turnover. The biggest threat to them is the Buckeyes, but as mentioned earlier, they get them at home, where they are hard to beat.

One underrated aspect of this Ducks team is the backup quarterback. Gabriel has an injury history but with former blue-chip recruit Dante Moore behind him, if he misses time, the Ducks should be just fine. This raises the floor for the Ducks in light of a Gabriel injury.

USC

Life without Caleb Williams began on a good note in the Bowl win, where Miller Moss threw for six touchdowns. The biggest question going into the season is if that was just one game or if Miller Moss can consistently get it done against tougher, more physical defenses.

Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius, so I think the offense will be fine. Losing a generational talent at quarterback is going to sting, but I don’t think the downgrade is as big as others. The defense has been Lincoln’s team’s weakness, no matter if it was in Norman or Southern Cal.

Out is Grinch, and in is UCLA’s defensive coordinator, D’Anton Lynn. He led the Bruins to a top-15 defense and completely turned around the Bruins’ culture. No place needs that more than this USC defense. Although he is not bringing some of those elite players with him from Westwood, the mindset and culture being instilled here is huge.

We will find out right away how good they are on both sides of the ball. They get LSU in the opener and travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan a few weeks later. After those two, the schedule is not overly difficult. It all depends on Miller Moss’ consistency and the improvement of the defense.

Washington

Washington has a new coaching staff and a makeover from top to bottom. They lose anyone you can think of who was important, whether a coach or a player. Remember what happened to TCU after being the national runner-up? That is what I see with this Huskies team.

They brought in a new head coach, Jedd Fisch, who was a great hire, but he left his star quarterback and receiver in Tucson. Their quarterback situation is stable with veteran Will Rogers, but he has very few proven players around him.

Zero offensive line starters return, so they bring in several transfers, but learning a new scheme in a new conference is not ideal. Expect a huge step back from that historical offense we saw last year.

Defensively they lack depth in the trenches in a conference with loaded fronts. The secondary was average but lost their best cover corner (Muhammad). With a suspect front and a new secondary, the Huskies could experience some growing pains.

The schedule did not do them any favors, playing Penn State, Iowa, and Oregon on the road and getting Michigan and USC at home. Too much turnover and not enough players. Look to sell the Huskies this year, but Fisch will have them ready in the next few seasons.

UCLA

UCLA also loses an entire coaching staff (head coach and both coordinators), but it’s much more intact when it comes to personnel. If Garbers can improve from last year, their offense is a bright spot. They brought in NFL offensive mind Eric Bienemy to run the show, and he has several weapons to work with.

Expect to see a lot of TJ Harden. He rushed for over 750 yards last year with eight touchdowns. The receiver room is sneakily good, with Sturdivant, Loya, and Matavao, who combined for over 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns. This was with inconsistent and shuffling quarterbacks. I expect this offense to be solid, but the defense is where the questions are.

Only four starters return on defense. They are losing north of 25 sacks and 45 tackles for loss between the Murphy Twins and first-round pick Laiatu Latu. That type of production can’t be replaced within an offseason, especially not at UCLA. They also will travel over 10,000 miles with their schedule. In a true year zero for Deshaun Foster, this could be a four or five-win debut.

Best of the Rest

Penn State

The Nittany Lions are slightly ahead of Michigan in my rankings. They return quite a few impact players on each side of the ball, and most importantly, Michigan is not on the schedule. They still get Ohio State, but that’s in Happy Valley. Even with a loss there, the playoffs are still attainable.

The issue with Penn State has always been their failure to perform against high-level teams like Michigan and Ohio State. They failed to beat Michigan in the last three years and have lost seven straight to Ohio State. So advantage to them for only getting one of the two on the schedule this year.

James Franklin brought in two new coordinators to help take this team to the next level. Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen will take over a defense that was top five in total defense and top three in success rate allowed. Despite the loss of several key players, Allen inherits an elite unit with a star at each level.

The hire that fans should be excited about is offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas. The offensive metrics on paper looked good, but this offense was simple and one-dimensional too often. Andy will bring an innovative offensive approach to Happy Valley which could elevate them to playoffs and maybe beyond.

Look no further than what he turned a miserable Kansas offense into during his tenure. With an upgrade in talent, I expect a big jump from this offense

Michigan

The defending national champs will look completely different. The losses are massive at nearly every level and more importantly, who is going to play quarterback? They promoted from within, which helps continuity, but how well can each adapt to their new role?

The strength will be the defense led by Mason Graham up front and Will Johnson on the back end. How far can the defense take them with a much tougher schedule? For Michigan to be competitive, Alex Orji needs to take a massive leap.

He is the presumed starter going into fall camp, but I don’t think he is capable of leading them to a playoff berth.

No starting offensive linemen are returning, but Sherron Moore is elite at developing that unit, so while they won’t be as good, it will not be a disaster. Donovan Edwards is back and should be the bell cow, with Corum moving on.

Skill position outside of Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland is questionable. That is certainly concerning with a new quarterback and offensive line being worked in.

I’m not saying we are going to see a 6-6 type of season, but it is going to be tougher this year. I have them favored in nine games, but there are a handful of others that could cause issues. The defense is going to be elite, but there are all sorts of questions offensively. This could be an 8-4 type of season unless Orji or one of the other quarterbacks exceeds expectations.

Best Bet

The only thing that matters is wins per game. A great quote by the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes. He’s right, but damn, can we at least complete a FEW forward passes. After firing his son, Ferentz brings in Tim Lester, former Western Michigan head coach to upgrade this offense. There is no way to go but up after finishing at the bottom in every offensive metric. Despite that, they still won ten games.

Not to mention, they did this with no quarterback. Cade McNamara is back, and if healthy, we should see a drastic improvement in the offense. They also upgraded their backup situation by bringing in Brendan Sullivan from Northwestern. He’s serviceable and would be fine if McNamara goes down.

I have them favored in 11 games, and the only clear loss is at Ohio State. We know what we are getting with Phil Parker’s defense, led by one of the best linebacker duos in the Big Ten. It’s not this simple, but they won 10 games with a historically bad offense and can’t win 8 with clear upgrades on that side of the ball. Maybe it is that simple—we’ll take it.

Iowa OVER 7.5

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