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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 2 Fantasy Football

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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 2 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 1 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

We’ll get a marquee matchup between the best rookie quarterback from last season and the 2024 first-overall pick on Sunday night. Both teams enter 1-0 but could not be coming off more polar opposite Week 1 offensive performances.

The Houston Texans look like everything we hoped for — and possibly more. We knew the passing game would be dynamic and that’s what we saw in Week 1. C.J. Stroud had the third-best completion percentage over expected last week, per Next Gen Stats, despite carrying a time to throw north of three seconds. Stroud continues to show exceptional pocket presence and decision-making as the perfect high-end trigger-man for this talented offense.

All of the wide receivers come out of Week 1 looking like must-start players. Tank Dell didn’t hit in the box score but carries plenty of peripheral metrics (16.3 aDOT) to show he has big ceiling weeks ahead. Don’t give up on him.

Nico Collins looks every bit like the alpha wide receiver we saw last season, while Stefon Diggs has a critical role as the chain-mover and red-zone receiver. While he’ll have to cede most of the downfield looks to Collins and Dell, don’t hyper-focus on the low air yard total. Most of that is due to earning looks inside the 10-yard line.

Diggs doesn’t have the same yardage ceiling he once did but he’s a threat to score double-digit touchdowns in this elite offense.

The more stunning part of the Texans’ Week 1 showing was the pristine run game. Houston was fourth in rushing success rate last week. The offensive line perfectly executed outside zone concepts and Mixon was saddled up with workhorse-level duties. He was a steady and efficient runner who kept the offense on schedule.

The Texans back could be a rest-of-season RB1.

The Bears, meanwhile, struggled on offense in Caleb Williams’ debut. The rookie had to deal with frequent pressure up the middle and try to write some checks that only cash in college, not the NFL. Overall, I’m not concerned about Williams, who will have better days ahead. I do come away from the Bears’ 2024 debut a bit concerned about the structure of Shane Waldron’s offense, the answers it has against pressure and some of the target distribution.

There are two in-game matchups to watch here. One, the interior of the offensive line is clearly an issue for the Bears in pass protection. The Texans are more potent at edge rusher with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter but DeMeco Ryans can create distribution with these guys inside too.

Two, I firmly believe DJ Moore needs to be involved in more of the passing game but he was second in first-read targets last week. That should change against Houston with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze both dealing with injuries. Yet, he may find himself in the coverage grasp of Derek Stingley Jr. These two issues could be enough for Chicago to run into some problems for the second straight week against a team much further in its development.

This playoff rematch has even more juice than anticipated before the season. While we all know the Lions were going to be a top-five offense in 2024, the Buccaneers led the league in EPA per play in Week 1.

Of course, Tampa Bay’s Week 1 fire show should be given proper context, considering it came against Washington, which looks like a mess defensively. However, they couldn’t have smashed the assignment any harder. New Bucs’ offensive coordinator Liam Coen provided one of the most surprising Week 1 performances. We weren’t quite sure what we were going to get from the 2022 Rams offensive coordinator but the attack he unfurled against Washington was filled with creative route concepts, motions and alignments of their talented receivers. Mike Evans remains one of the premier receivers in the game while Chris Godwin looked perfectly deployed as a matchup nightmare in Week 1. Baker Mayfield actually looked even more confident and in control of the attack than he did last season.

The process and bones of the passing offense look sustainable even if the Week 1 results are not. The Lions defense appears to be a group ready to make at least a slight jump this season, so we’ll be able to calibrate both units in this game.

On the Lions side, the biggest question is whether Jameson Williams can continue to hold a critical role. The player we saw in Week 1 was not just a deep shot player but someone who got schemed up looks off motion to take advantage of zone coverage over the middle of the field.

If we see Williams with a high target share like this, it might be time to reimagine the target distribution as we know it in Detroit. At the same time, the Bucs’ blitz-happy defense will try and heat up Jared Goff, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has always been the top target when facing extra pressure.

Don’t be shocked if we see a major bounce-back game from St. Brown. Additionally, we can expect a heavy dose of the ground game to try and keep the passing attack out of negative down-and-distance situations. Both Lions running backs are fantasy starters in this matchup and others, going forward.

The Vikings enter this game fresh off a convincing Week 1 win against the hapless Giants. While we’ll focus on the offense in this space, it’s worth giving some flowers to their defense. It was the best unit in the game as Brian Flores had Daniel Jones in the blender from the first drive.

On the other side of the ball, Sam Darnold turned in a strong performance in his Vikings debut. The key with Darnold is all about keeping the former top-five pick clean. According to PFF, Darnold averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt and threw his interception when under center. He was under pressure on 42.3% of his dropbacks, fourth-most among quarterbacks in Week 1 against a ferocious Giants front. When kept clean, Darnold went 14 of 15 with 10.3 yards per attempt. A non-harrassed Darnold has all the arm talent to make all the throws and execute a well-designed offense.

My worry in this game is that not only are the 49ers a strong defense that can pressure the passer and clog up the middle-of-the-field lanes Kevin O’Connell loves to attack, but they had Darnold in their building last year. If anyone knows what makes Darnold tick, it should be these 49ers coaches. Should Darnold continue to thrive in this spot, my confidence will grow that he can keep this Vikings offense afloat.

On the 49ers side, we can expect this unit to continue to get better as players like Brandon Aiyuk get more ingrained in the offense after time missed in training camp. The only pressing question is what to do with Jordan Mason.

However, I think that’s an easy answer — there isn’t much to discuss.

Overall this game provides so many big-name players who are in fantasy consideration. Yet, I find myself pretty enthralled with how both defenses will attack the quarterbacks. While the 49ers can hold Darnold in check, I’m less convinced on the other side. While Flores’ pressure-happy amoeba defense is a nightmare for bad quarterbacks and disorganized offenses, attacks like the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan are on a different level.

The Bengals of last week do not deserve to be in the binge category but I’m willing to give them one more week. They’ll travel to Kansas City to face off against the Super Bowl champs in a stadium once foolishly nicknamed “Burrowhead.”

Cincinnati’s offense looked pedestrian last week. Despite not facing much pressure, Joe Burrow was quick to get rid of the ball and pass up downfield throws. When he was kept clean, Burrow averaged a measly 4.5 average depth of throw with a 2.33-second time to throw, per PFF. You’re just not going to run a dangerous offense playing like that.

One silver lining is that despite not spending a lick of practice time with the team this offseason, Ja’Marr Chase is playing in a new role. He ran 43% of his routes from the slot, per Fantasy Points Data. That makes sense considering Tyler Boyd is out of the mix and the rest of their receivers are perimeter athletes. Chase obviously needs the offense to be functioning closer to its ceiling in order to be a top-five fantasy receiver but this type of varied deployment will be critical to boosting his floor outcomes.

On the Chiefs side, we got some good clues on how the receivers will be used. Xavier Worthy tied for the team lead in routes run but wasn’t a high-volume player. That’s likely to remain the case all year but he should be a low-usage, high-yield player with his opportunities.

The big winner of the space created by the new-look Chiefs offense is Rashee Rice.

In this role — running layup routes over the cavernous middle of the field — Rice is going to gobble up targets and has the juice and physical style of play to make the most of those chances in the open field. He looks like a clear top-20 receiver the rest of the way and a possible darkhorse WR1 if neither Worthy nor Hollywood Brown, when available, become high-volume players.

The Chiefs player in the best position for fantasy may well be Isiah Pacheco. The Bengals’ run defense was one of the worst in the league last season and lost front-line assets in the offseason. The Patriots and Rhamondre Stevenson barrelled through them in Week 1. Pacheco is a top 5-8 back on the slate.

Most important Falcons storyline: The Falcons were such a mess in Week 1 that I hardly think they deserve to be in this category. Yet, their opponent and the overall intrigue around this team push them higher than their play on the field warrants.

There’s every chance I’m overreacting to Week 1, but it sure feels like Atlanta is at a crossroads already. The pistol/shotgun-only attack Atlanta rolled out in Week 1 is just so antithetical to the units in which Kirk Cousins has thrived in during his NFL career. It’s hard to believe anything other than the team is worried about his lack of mobility coming off the Achilles injury. If we see something like this again in Week 2 and Cousins still looks uncomfortable, immobile and overall incapable of running a multi-dimensional offense, gamers who took Falcons’ players early will be in full-blown panic mode.

Can’t say I’ll blame them.

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Most important Eagles storyline: We got pristine usage for the Eagles’ skill-position players in Week 1.

Jalen Hurts took the 12th-most dropbacks with motion among quarterbacks in Week 1 and it was a boon for the receivers. A.J. Brown averaged 3.75 yards per route run on plays with motion and took a quick short motion to gain leverage as the outside receiver on his long touchdown. DeVonta Smith averaged 3.37 yards per route run on plays with motion and took over 70% of his routes from the slot. Both guys could smash against a weak Falcons defense.

On the ground, Saquon Barkley was electric in his Eagles debut.

Sometimes it’s as simple as a great player in a great ecosystem — and we’re cooking. That’s what we have with Barkley in Philadelphia. The Eagles have a chance to be one of THE right-answer teams in 2024.

Most important Saints storyline: I realize that playing the Panthers was a huge part of the reason that the Saints offense exploded in Week 1 but we should also acknowledge some of the structural changes.

No team used more pre-snap motion than the Saints in Week 1 (88% of their dropbacks). This was a huge reason the offense looked more alive. Look no further than the leverage created on Rashid Shaheed’s touchdown catch. Also, Derek Carr used play-action on 40% of his dropbacks per PFF; only Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson were higher in Week 1. He ranked dead last among starters at 14.8% in 2023.

Both of these were changes I expected to see made and were why I was fascinated with this offense during the offseason. Again, let’s see them do it against a non-Panthers defense, especially one in Dallas that’s rising up the ranks with Mike Zimmer in the fold. If these changes hold up, however, some of these Saints players are going to outkick expectations.

Most important Cowboys storyline: I’d give the Cowboys offense an overall positive grade for their Week 1 debut.

They ran the ball better than expected, the offensive line survived a game against a ferocious front and despite the lack of time spent at camp, the Dak Prescott-to-CeeDee Lamb connection is as alive as ever. Beyond those two, a couple of veterans held down the important roles. Brandon Cooks ran the second-most routes on the team and was targeted on 28% of his routes run. He looks like the clear No. 2 receiver on the team with Jalen Tolbert as the three.

In the backfield, Ezekiel Elliott handled 50% of the team in the first half of the game — Cleveland let this thing turn into a blowout pretty early. With Jake Ferguson in danger of missing multiple weeks, these are the only other fringe fantasy options in Dallas.

Most important Colts storyline: Anthony Richardson and AD Mitchell were close to linking up for a few huge plays in Week 1.

Richardson should have been more accurate and there was at least one miss when Mitchell may have been slightly off where the quarterback expected him to be downfield. Mitchell checked in with a 26.3% target share. Michael Pittman Jr. also garnered a massive 42.1% target share but only caught four passes for 31 yards. Despite all those opportunity metrics, Alec Pierce turned in the best stat line thanks to a couple of deep shots that connected.

In my eyes, Pittman is still a fantasy starter, and Mitchell is someone I want to hang onto while understanding that Richardson will be a volatile passer. This receiver room will get a shake-up at some point when Josh Downs returns.

Most important Packers storyline: There’s some chatter that Jordan Love may yet be available to play in this game.

That seems like a longshot so let’s stick with the idea we won’t see the young star quarterback; instead, we need to see if Malik Willis can be something close to a viable quarterback. The odds are against him, not only because he hasn’t performed at that level at any point when he’s received chances in the league but also because he was just traded to this team late last month. There are so many intriguing pass-catching options on this Packers team that it’s critical to see if Willis can operate this offense.

Most important Rams storyline: Cooper Kupp saw more targets (21) than the Rams scored points (20) on Sunday night.

While this lights the fire of every fantasy analyst in the game, it’s not a great sign for the offensive ecosystem overall. If this offense is going to remain a fruitful environment for success, we need both the offensive line to get healthy fast and for other players to emerge. As of now, I don’t think Tyler Johnson, who is on his fourth NFL team, can be that guy despite his big play from Sunday. Demarcus Robinson ended last year strong and ran the second-most routes on the team in Week 1. He may not fit my criteria of a needle-mover but he’s likely to pick up the most volume in the receiver room.

Most important Cardinals storyline: What we got from Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 1 just can’t be the results we’ll see all season long.

I’ll admit that when I turned on the film to chart his routes from that game, I was overall underwhelmed. Expectations were likely too high for him this season overall, but based on how he played in college, I assumed he would look a bit more comfortable in his debut in terms of his timing as a route runner and his ability to get off press. That was not the case. However, I do think some of the speed and explosiveness concerns are a bit overblown.

The biggest concern for me going forward is that his Week 1 role and route assignments will lead to volatility. He has a great chance to rebound against a vulnerable Rams defense. If we get more of the same in Week 2, the panic meter will be on the rise.

Most important Browns storyline: Deshaun Watson ranked 25th in EPA per dropback in Week 1, per Next Gen Stats, and was pressured on a whopping 44.6% of his dropbacks.

That second metric will be a frequent excuse levied in Watson’s favor. The problem is that, per PFF, his 70% adjusted completion percentage when under pressure ranked as a bottom-six result among Week 1 passers and he turned in a 58.9 passer rating. He missed downfield passes by almost 10 yards against Dallas on plays when there was no pressure. If Watson can’t turn it around or a change isn’t made behind center, no one in Cleveland will be a viable fantasy option.

Most important Jaguars storyline: The Jaguars’ rushing game was a bit better in Week 1 than most of what we got in 2023.

That’s great news if this offense is ever going to find steady rhythm and consistency — would be welcome after Week 1’s disaster loss. The problem for fantasy gamers is that Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne split carries down the middle. Etienne will have a tough time cracking his RB1 ADP if Bigsby turns into a significant threat for base-down rushing work after a messy rookie season.

Most important Raiders storyline: We should be prepared to be frustrated by the Raiders every week because they have a great set of skill position players but are limited at quarterback.

That said, it’s still critical to track the playing time of some of the non-Davante Adams options. In the backfield, Alexander Mattison led the way in snaps and ran 21 routes to nine for Zamir White. The latter won’t be playable in fantasy anytime soon with that split.

Brock Bowers ran 72.5% of the routes in the passing game and garnered eight targets. It won’t be a high-ceiling proposal but he is a TE1 with that usage.

Most important Ravens storyline: Derrick Henry’s Week 1 usage wasn’t ideal for a consensus Round 2 running back, but it’s also not surprising that he ceded more work than usual to a passing-down back in Justice Hill. That’s especially true as they’re trying to blend the rushing styles of Henry and his new quarterback.

A negative game script on the road against the Chiefs necessitated this running back rotation, but that won’t be the type of games Baltimore finds itself in often. That’s including this week at home as a heavy favorite against the Raiders. We can start adjusting expectations if Henry doesn’t retain excellent usage and smash in Week 2.

One reason to maybe watch: Malik Nabers only drew seven targets in Week 1.

If the Giants offense is going to be functional, and Nabers is able to pay off his redraft ADP, that is not going to cut it. Brian Daboll said that the way to get the rookie more involved is to simply “throw him the ball.” I’m in no way here to defend Daniel Jones, but he is the type of quarterback that needs severe catering. This coaching staff should be painfully aware of that and, therefore, has to bear some of the blame for Nabers’ lack of involvement (16.7% target share) in Week 1.

The Commanders may come out of this season as the 32nd-ranked defense in the NFL based on their personnel and what we saw in Week 1. This should be an excellent spot for Daboll to mix up Nabers’ alignment and make it easier for Jones to get him the ball. It shouldn’t be this hard, but this is where the Giants’ quarterback situation is at this stage. If we don’t see anything different from what we got in Week 1, we must expect even more volatility than we projected for Nabers this season.

One reason to maybe watch: The results were what they were but overall, Aaron Rodgers’ return to the NFL field was a successful endeavor.

His mobility remains a far cry from his glory days but some of the little tricks in his bag and the arm talent are still present. With that box checked, we need to continue to feel out if the structure of the Jets offense and the protection will be good enough for players like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson to access their ceilings. The Titans’ defense was exceptional at creating interior disruption in Week 1 against Chicago, so it’s a good test. Both Jets’ stars will be in your lineups this and every week but we’ll know much more by the end of Sunday’s game about whether they have the juice on offense to reach those Round 1 ADPs.

One reason to maybe watch: Both of these teams featured productive run games in Week 1 and both had a traditional “running back dead zone” player lead the way.

Seattle and New England should each find the lanes tougher to come by in Week 2 than the fronts they faced last time out. That said, if either rushing game sustains its opening performance, Rhamondre Stevenson and/or Kenneth Walker could go down as a big value this year. Walker is on the injury report, so he’s worth monitoring heading into the game.

One reason to maybe watch: The Chargers offense had issues pass protecting on the interior in Week 1, and the aerial box score results were nothing to write home about.

Upon film review, Justin Herbert was fantastic in this game at both mitigating pressure and pushing the ball downfield to the correct read. He should not have to deal with the same sort of disruption against the Panthers in Week 2. Carolina was one of the worst defenses on paper heading into the year, got blown away in Week 2 and then lost their best player, Derrick Brown, for the season. The Chargers should provide a few options if you’re looking for sleepers this week.

One reason to maybe watch: Justin Fields continues to tighten his grip on the Steelers QB1 gig.

It sounds like Russell Wilson is set to miss another week and Fields is preparing to start again for Pittsburgh. One of the downsides of Wilson taking the veteran minimum deal with his new team in part to stick it to his old team and force them to pay his offset money post-release, is that that new team now has no real ties to him. If the Steelers continue to win under Fields, and he keeps the ball out of harm’s way, he will remain under center. Flawed as he is, an offense with Fields as the quarterback is a higher-ceiling attack for fantasy football, at the very least, and likely more dangerous in real life because of his rushing dimension.

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