Black Friday: A Mixed Bag of Retail Shopping Data

As we’re heading to Black Friday, we are provided with a mixed bag of retail shopping data; from a retail’s nonessential spending, reduced holiday expenditure, and more. Here’s the breakdown:

In October 2024 the retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent from September 2024. Analysts expect spending to increase in slower growth during this holiday season as people are more cautious with their spending. Some categories are likely to see growth like electronics and appliances while others like clothing are shrinking.

Despite inflation, the trend of spending on nonessential items like air-fryers are growing over the past four months. And many Americans are still planning to buy more nonessentials to feel a sense of indulgence while at the same time still being cautious with their overall spending.

Robinhood reported that cheap brands like Shein and Temu are thriving. While Target and other retailers are at risk of losing market share to discount retailers like Walmart and Costco. Amazon also sees this and offers a new storefront with items priced $20 and lower.

The data above give a slight imagery before the earnings results of Macy’s (NYSE:M), and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) with the current retail environment.

From the investor relations page, Best Buy’s 2025 guidance shows expectation of flat sales to even 3.00% down of revenue between $41.3 billion to $42.6 billion with maintain non-GAAP operating income margin at 3.9% to 4.1%.

Similar to Best Buy, Macy’s also shows a shift in consumer spending with growth in electronics and appliances and shrink sales in clothing. Both companies are facing challenges with cautious consumer spending and inflationary pressures.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.