Boston Red Sox 2024 offseason preview: With elite prospects knocking on the door, can the Red Sox contend in 2025?

2024 season: Eliminated on Sept. 25, 3rd in AL East

Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Boston Red Sox, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, A’s, Blue Jays and more?

Things that went right

The Red Sox were one of the surprise teams of the first half, arriving at the All-Star break 10 games over .500. The pitching staff was the story of the initial surge, as it ranked fifth in baseball with a 3.63 ERA when we took a break for the Midsummer Classic. The rotation was led by the emergence of Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, and pitching coach Andrew Bailey was drawing rave reviews across baseball.

On the offensive side, several players are wrapping up excellent seasons. Rafael Devers continues to be the centerpiece of the batting order, and he will finish 2024 with an OPS over .850 for a fourth straight year. Jarren Duran took an exciting step forward for a second straight season, cementing his status as a terrific table-setter while also playing excellent defense. And after struggling in St. Louis the previous two years, Tyler O’Neill reclaimed his status as a dangerous power hitter. His long-term durability problems continued with three IL stints, but they were all brief.

Things that went wrong

The Red Sox are no longer remotely close to 10 games over .500, which tells us everything we need to know about their second-half results. The rotation was the biggest reason that the team fell out of the race, as Houck, Crawford and Nick Pivetta all faded down the stretch. And the bullpen didn’t fare any better, as the relievers who threw the most second-half innings all posted bloated ratios.

The disappointments on the offensive side were more related to injuries than performance. Triston Casas was expected to build on a terrific second half of 2023, but he went on the IL on April 27 and didn’t return for 3.5 months. Trevor Story’s luck was even worse, as he played just eight games before being sent for left shoulder surgery. By the time he worked his way back in September, the team’s postseason odds were minimal.

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Offseason plans

Although Boston didn’t make significant progress with its win-loss record, the team continued to stockpile key pieces toward soon returning to the postseason. To that end, most infield spots are settled for 2025. Devers will anchor the lineup from his position at the hot corner, and Casas and Story will hopefully enjoy better health as the first baseman and shortstop. Second base is the unsettled position, with Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton as the returning candidates. Manager Alex Cora will also need to find a significant role for Ceddanne Rafaela, who split 2024 between shortstop and center field.

If Rafaela isn’t needed in the infield, he should be part of an outfield trio with Duran and Wilyer Abreu, who emerged as a key part of the team’s future in 2024. The left-handed-hitting Abreu is terrific against right-handers but will need to be platooned until he shows better plate skills vs. southpaws. Masataka Yoshida will be the team’s DH but can also play left field, which means that Boston is in good shape despite the free-agent status of O’Neill.

The rotation is less settled than the lineup, and the front office should consider adding a starter. Houck, Crawford and Brayan Bello will hold rotation spots with the goal of improving their consistency next year. Cooper Criswell didn’t give the team much length, but he pitched well enough to audition as the fifth starter. Pivetta is heading to free agency, while Garrett Whitlock and Lucas Giolito are questions after both underwent elbow surgery. There aren’t any elite pitching prospects knocking on the door, which means help must come from outside the organization.

Boston’s relief corps ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA and needs a complete rebuild, especially with closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Chris Martin heading to free agency. There will be no choice but to add at least two relievers, even with Liam Hendriks returning from 2023 Tommy John surgery.

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Prospects on the horizon

The Red Sox might get more help from their farm system in 2025 than any other team in baseball, as they have a trio of elite prospects knocking on the door.

Roman Anthony is the headliner of the group. The 20-year-old has flashed a diverse skill set throughout his minor-league career, hitting for power, reaching base often and showing speed on the basepaths. In September, he was ranked as Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect. Anthony could force his way into a crowded Boston outfield early in 2025.

Marcelo Mayer is also one of baseball’s best prospects and will likely be Boston’s future shortstop. After posting a .370 OBP at Double-A this year, he was promoted to Triple-A in early August. Unfortunately, a lumbar strain will prevent him from making his debut at that level until 2025. The fourth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Mayer could arrive in the majors next summer.

Kyle Teel is the third outstanding prospect who reached Triple-A down the stretch. Boston’s first-round draft pick after he was named ACC Player of the Year in 2023, Teel is more athletic than most catchers and should spend much of next season sharing time with Connor Wong behind the plate.

Goals for 2025

The Red Sox should intend on making the postseason next year. Offensively, the pieces are in place, especially if a couple of top prospects can contribute for at least part of the season.

Also, Boston is no stranger to spending on the free-agent market, and it’s obvious that the Red Sox need to add multiple arms this winter. If they fail to bolster their pitching staff, they could finish dead last in the ultra-competitive AL East next year.

Fantasy focus

With Devers and Duran, the Red Sox offer fantasy managers two players who might be selected in the second round of drafts. Devers is one of the safest fantasy assets, while Duran has five-category upside that few players can match.

Casas and Abreu will be valued as middle-round picks, with Casas likely garnering more attention than Abreu. After all, wise managers will remember that Casas posted a 1.034 OPS in the second half of 2023, which is enough reason to look past his injury-plagued 2024 campaign.

The pitching decisions will be tougher. Are Houck and Crawford capable of recovering their level of performance from the first half of 2024? Can Whitlock rebound from his elbow injury? Will Bello eventually take a step forward? And who will collect saves in Boston? Houck, Crawford and the new closer should be middle-round picks, with Whitlock and Bello ranking as late-round sleepers.