Bowl projections: Notre Dame drops from College Football Playoff field as Oklahoma State, Iowa State enter

Northern Illinois sent shockwaves through the college football world on Saturday afternoon with a 16-14 win at No. 5 Notre Dame.  And here we all thought Texas vs. Michigan was going to provide us with the most important result of the day in Week 2.

The Irish were coming off a big win at Texas A&M to open the season but were caught flat-footed by the Huskies, who won both lines of scrimmage in the victory. Notre Dame’s win over the Aggies put them in last week’s College Football Playoff projection, but this week’s loss dropped them right back out.

Another afternoon matchup also affected the CFP projections as Iowa State came from behind to win at No. 21 Iowa 20-19. The Cyclones are now in the playoff projections and the Hawkeyes have been bounced out.

Oklahoma State is the other new team in this week’s projection, giving the Big 12 the most teams in the field (4) four. Kansas State and predicted champion Utah are holdovers from last week.

College Football Playoff

Quarterfinals

First round

Georgia heads up the SEC contingent as the top seed with Texas fifth overall and Alabama at No. 6. The Longhorns’ victory at Michigan solidifies their place as the top team that is not a projected champion.

Ohio State is still No. 2 and is joined by Penn State and Oregon. The Ducks have slid down the rankings a bit, now projected to be the 9-seed.

Miami is the lone representative from the ACC as the 3-seed. Clemson bounced back from the blowout loss to Georgia with an annihilation of Appalachian State, and the Tigers are the most likely team to add to the ACC’s total in the CFP.

Despite a loss at Oregon on a last-second field goal, Boise State is still the projected team to represent the Group of Five. Northern Illinois has a path to get there, but the Huskies have to finish 13-0. If they do, that would include a win at NC State on Sept. 28.  They would also need the Irish and Wolfpack to finish in the final rankings. It is asking a lot, but it is still possible.

I always say that you don’t really know how good a team is until it plays on the road. Well, maybe not Notre Dame; the Irish hope to take advantage of the road comforts this week at Purdue.

Some of the top teams will be making their first road trips of the season next week, including Alabama traveling to Wisconsin and Oregon going up the road to rival Oregon State. Also, Memphis will try to make a case for a spot in the CFP when it travels to Florida State, but that looked like a lot bigger game a couple of weeks ago.

There are still six teams in this week’s bowl projections that I expect to finish 5-7. Three of those are from the Big Ten, which seems to have had a good year in the APR. Six sub-.500 teams in the bowls would be not just be a record, but it would be one short of the total number of sub-.500 teams to play in bowl games — excluding pandemic impacted seasons — since the NCAA started allowing it in 2015.

Don’t see your team? Check out Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.