Brazil, a soft underbelly and an identity crisis threatening its 2026 World Cup prospects

Brazil’s surprising 1-0 World Cup qualifying defeat in Paraguay was not a freak result that can be chalked up as simply a one-off. It is the type of result that has been a long time in the making, the groundwork first laid a decade ago by Germany.

It was a defeat that led to countless think-pieces. Brazil, the host and a pre-tournament favorite, wasn’t just eliminated in the semifinal of the 2014 World Cup — it had been humiliated, dissected and discarded with the entire world serving as the voyeur. Although few watching needed the benefit of hindsight to know how significantly the absences of Neymar and Thiago Silva impeded Brazil’s chances of advancing, the manner of Germany’s 7-1 dismantling felt like a unique act of subjugation on the brink of a tournament final.

As The Athletic’s Daniel Taylor wrote for The Guardian that day: “It was the night Germany removed the crown from football royalty.” Even then, and perhaps specifically because of two modern icons’ absence from that match, few could have predicted how long Brazil would be playing out from that shadow. It’s hard to argue it is not still mired in that dark aftermath.

But how did Brazil end up leaving Estadio Defensores del Chaco on Tuesday defeated by the right foot of Diego Gomez, a result that leaves it fifth in the qualifying table after four losses from their eight matches? There are some obvious answers. The globalization of the sport has resulted in world-class players coming more consistently from previously second-tier footballing nations, narrowing the once-sizable gulf in quality between teams.

Indeed, mighty Brazil can lose a World Cup qualifier in Asuncion, Paraguay. Of course, the United States can be humiliated against Panama and fail to advance from the Copa America group stage on home soil. Yes, Italy can miss two consecutive World Cups. When results like these catch viewers completely off-guard, it has more to do with the sport’s legacy than international football’s growing state of parity. And yes, historically inept San Marino, on their day, can take down Liechtenstein.

In theory, that fact should only push the most storied footballing nations to adapt and stay ahead of the curve. England and France are two obvious examples; Argentina had to correct course midway through Lionel Messi’s international career and has enjoyed an all-time great run following the adjustment. Spain moved past a decade of staunchly committing to tiki-taka and won the European Championship with a fresh ideology and a teenage prodigy.

For a host of reasons, however, Brazil — with its quintet of men’s World Cup triumphs — has not been so eager to move on from tradition. While it still produces world-class players with regularity, simply having an obvious successor in the lineage of Pele, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Kaka and Neymar is not enough to move past those shortcomings.

For a decade, Brazil has been pulling itself out from the rubble of its capitulation in Belo Horizonte. Part of the struggle comes from clinging so tightly to a tradition that was already referred to with past-tense terminology in 2014 — that team was facing the same criticisms of playing without flair that the current iteration can’t shake.

The only difference is that along with a fanbase clamoring for greatness, the program’s legends have joined the chorus of detractors. Ronaldinho may say or do anything for a quick buck these days, but the fact his criticism of the team before this summer’s Copa America landed far more than his ensuing apology speaks volumes about what fans and the world expect from the Brazil men’s national team.

Anything less than making a final is a failure of a World Cup for Brazil. It’s such a well-established benchmark that even current manager Dorival Junior did not mind promising a trip to the 2026 final on the eve of the Paraguay qualifier.

“We will be in the 2026 World Cup final. We will be finalists. You can film me while I’m saying this. I have no doubts. We will be there,” the coach said, unaware of how quickly that prophecy would look unwise.

Attempts to move past that 7-1 shellacking have been far from convincing. With Neymar available for the knockouts in the following two World Cups, Brazil exited in the quarter-final round against Belgium in 2018 and Croatia in 2022. Although it managed to win the 2019 Copa America, Argentina’s back-to-back successes in 2021 and 2024 on either side of their third global title have largely belittled that one-off success. Making matters worse, Brazil hardly looked like a threat to challenge at this summer’s instalment.

A decade later, the once-proud monarch clad in yellow more closely resembles a feeble canary than an intimidating golden eagle.

There are still world-class Brazilian footballers. Alisson is arguably the best goalkeeper in the men’s game. Vinicius Junior is still among the best attackers in the world. Although he has only logged a dozen La Liga minutes to date, 18-year-old Endrick has opened his Real Madrid scoring account and could indeed be the top-end line-leader the program has missed for two decades.

In between those lines, however, is a soft underbelly: a gaggle of midfielders and defenders whose caliber does not stack up against the teams in early contention to win the 2026 World Cup.

In the 1-0 defeat against Paraguay, Dorival Junior started a trio of Andre, Bruno Guimaraes, and Lucas Paqueta. Who would you involve to improve the engine room? Douglas Luiz? Untested under-23 types like Pablo Maia or Andrey Santos? It’s an undeniable disadvantage from within their own ranks.

Manchester United fans will be sick of reading about this, but it’s hard to overstate the impact of Casemiro’s waning quality. While the 2019 Copa America was viewed as a positive stamp on Neymar’s legacy, the defensive midfielder was essential to their semifinal victory over Argentina, pocketing Messi and allowing the forwards to flourish in a 2-0 triumph. Although Casemiro is only 32, the amount of mileage in his legs from a decade with Real Madrid has left his finest form in the rearview.

Similarly, Thiago Silva’s retirement kicked off a revolving door next to Marquinhos in central defense. Gabriel has thus far looked unconvincing compared to what we see from him with Arsenal — it was his miscue that led to Gomez’s match-winner on Tuesday. He’ll likely remain in competition with Eder Militao — a situation that never helps a team establish a defensive bedrock upon which to build.

There is also the matter of joga bonito. Brazil’s identity struggles center on one entirely unique factor: no national team is more closely associated with how the sport should be played. While laying a claim to creating the sport, England benefits from the globalized, hodge-podge ideology of its powerful domestic top flight. Spain only joined the list of World Cup winners in 2010, leaving them at least a decade from serious pressure to consistently validate themselves at the highest level. France’s failures have easily been chalked up to egos and internal turmoil, but it is not as synonymous with one stylistic ideology as others.

Even Messi had a relatively easier task to uphold his international legacy against Diego Maradona’s: win, no matter the aesthetic, with some individual brilliance to affirm your leading role.

Brazil yearns for stakes that are so easy to conceptualize. Instead, it is tasked with doing what Pele and his dynastic peers managed: inspire hearts and minds, win silverware, and show the world a level of soccer it could not dream to match.

That is a lot harder to do than it was half a century ago when only a dozen or so nations contended at the sport’s highest level. In this age of Nations Leagues, where UEFA plays fewer cross-confederation friendlies than ever, a nation like Brazil has fewer chances to measure its progress to winning a sixth World Cup. That Paraguay could claim a qualifying win over them makes that quest appear concerningly out of reach.

And so, we have another cycle of quotes about straying from the altar of joga bonito — itself more of a marketing slogan than a tactical ideology — and calls for someone, anyone, to make things right again. Those discourses and the program’s history overshadow the reality that this simply is not a team that resembles a World Cup contender. As it stands, their best hope to be at the 2026 World Cup final will be to obtain a ticket presale code.

(Top photo: Christian Alvarenga / Getty Images)