Bryce Underwood’s flip from LSU to Michigan sinks Brian Kelly’s third season to further levels of catastrophe

It’s been a miserable third season for Brian Kelly at LSU. It got a lot worse Thursday night when the Tigers lost the player who could have been Kelly’s meal ticket in 2025 and beyond, No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood. The five-star quarterback flipped to local Michigan, which was by all accounts offering an NIL package in the range of $10 million. 

LSU’s three-game losing streak that knocked the Tigers out of the College Football Playoff picture and Kelly’s sideline eruptions were the talk of Baton Rouge in recent weeks, but at least should not be blamed for Underwood’s decision. 

“I think these wheels were well in motion prior to all that,” says 247Sports recruiting analyst Allen Trieu. “The losing streak and Kelly in a sideline screaming match may not have helped matters, but I don’t see it as as big a cause as it may have seemed from the outside. And I’d venture to say that even if LSU had won all three games, this may have played out in the same way.”

Call it an extremely unhappy coincidence. 

The rabid LSU fanbase was already revolting (just check out the message boards). Now LSU’s vaunted 2025 recruiting class, once replete with multiple five-stars, is in danger of being bloodied. Elite wide receiver Derek Meadows is reportedly looking elsewhere. Miami and a handful of schools are still giving chase to five-star cornerback commit DJ Pickett. It may be a bumpy ride to Dec. 4’s National Signing Day. 

This is all utterly unacceptable at LSU, given the resources invested in the program, including a $10 million annual salary for the head coach. 

“Certainly anytime there’s some losses people are gonna ask questions,” Kelly said this week on the Paul Finebaum Show in regards to his staff’s recruiting outlook. “We’ve been in constant conversation with our recruiting class. If you’re just starting to pick up the phone now and talk to them, you’re gonna lose them. I think we look at all the schools in the SEC there’s going to be additions and deletions these next couple of weeks. That’s the nature of where we are with NIL and revenue sharing coming on board.” 

There were always questions about how Kelly would fit in at LSU. The initial fit concerns were heightened earlier this season when multiple sources pointed to Kelly’s style not playing as well in Baton Rouge as it did in South Bend, leading to what some describe as a disconnect. Kelly steadied the ship after almost losing to South Carolina with an overtime win over Ole Miss, boosting hope. Still, the bottom fell out with three straight losses.

Kelly’s sideline interactions, his reputation for rubbing people the wrong way and now the recruiting arrow pointing in the wrong direction speak to a program in panic mode. 

A 27-14 loss to Florida last week was the obvious nadir of a blown season, on the football field at least. The lesson from that game was how much hope can come from having the right quarterback. Even a banged-up DJ Lagway showed Saturday why Florida is giving Billy Napier another year in Gainesville. The No. 1 QB recruit in the class of 2024, the freshman Lagway is the future of Florida football, and if his staying within the program is tied to Napier, it was worth it to bring the head coach back for another season to see what’s possible. 

A huge $60 million buyout is Kelly’s firewall, but Underwood was the reason to still hope he can follow in his predecessors’ footsteps and win a national championship at LSU. It’s far too simplistic to say it will only be Underwood who will deliver that. And I’d bet Garrett Nussmeier returns in 2025 and is much improved — and hopefully more careful with the ball. But LSU needs better players across the board to actually compete for the SEC — its offensive line will have to drastically improve despite losing two projected first-round picks, it needs help along the defensive front, the wide receiver room will have to be replenished and, of course, it needs better play from its quarterback, the assumption now being that that’s Nussmeier job without a backstop.  

Maybe losing Underwood lights a fire under Kelly and LSU’s NIL arm. Maybe they go scorched-earth and spend big everywhere, like Ohio State did a season ago when arch-rival Michigan won the national championship. The Buckeyes gave embattled head coach Ryan Day no excuse to underdeliver. 

Kelly needed Underwood to be his savior. Time for Plan B. The clock’s ticking. 

MORE: What’s next for Michigan, LSU after Underwood’s flip