By 2031, 85% Of Good Jobs Will Require Some Postsecondary Education, Finds Report

By 2031, the number of good jobs in the U.S. will grow by 15.2 million, and 85% of them will require some level of postsecondary education, according to a new report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.

The Future of Good Jobs: Projections Through 2031 predicts the share and number of good jobs in 2031 for workers ages 25–64 who have completed one of three educational pathways:

• a bachelor’s degree, including those who’ve completed a BA-level program or earn a professional or other postgraduate degree;
• middle-skills, including those who complete some college courses, earn an associate’s degree, or finish a certificate program, and
• high school, those with a high school diploma or less education.

CEW defines a good job as one that pays, nationally, at least $43,000 and a median of $74,000 for workers between the ages of 25 and 44 in 2022 dollars. For workers ages 45 to 64, a good job is defined as paying at least $55,000 and a median of $91,000. The overall median earnings for workers ages 25–64 who hold a good job are $82,000.

The center forecasts that good jobs will be available on every educational pathway in 2031, but the extent of those opportunities will differ considerably, depending on how much education a worker has completed. Less than 20% will be available to workers on either the high school pathway or the middle-skills pathway, but two-thirds of good jobs will be available to individuals on the bachelor’s degree pathway.

By 2031, the number of good jobs in the U.S. will grow to 87.8 million, up 21% from 2021. Good jobs will account for 62% of all jobs by 2031.

In 2031, the distribution of good jobs across the three educational pathways is projected to be:

• € 58.2 million good jobs on the bachelor’s degree pathway, accounting for 66% of all good jobs;
• € 16.4 million good jobs on the middle-skills pathway, which will account for 19% of all good jobs;
• € 13.2 million good jobs on the high school pathway, making up 15% of all good jobs.

“We are going through a time of major economic change that carries both promise and uncertainty, including retirements of baby boomers, potential disruptions from generative AI, remaining inflationary pressures and high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and an unsettled national policy landscape,” said CEW Director and lead author Jeff Strohl, in a press release.

“The good news, though, is we foresee substantially more good jobs by 2031, spurred by greater productivity enabled by new technologies, stronger growth among high-skill/high-wage occupations, and continued political pressure on policymakers to deliver on job quality for workers, not just low unemployment,” Strohl added.

The report uses the concept of “promising occupations” to describe employment opportunities that will offer the best odds for securing a good job in the future. To be considered “promising,” an occupational group must meet two criteria: 1) it must be expected to employ a greater share of workers on a given educational pathway relative to the overall economy, and 2) the majority of jobs available to workers on a given educational pathway in the occupational group must satisfy the income-based definition of a good job.

Although promising occupations will be available to workers on every educational pathway, the bachelor’s degree will be the primary road to a good job across the most occupational categories. The report finds, that in 2031, there will be ten promising occupational groups on the bachelor’s degree pathway, five on the middle-skills pathway, and only one on the high school pathway.

The demand for more educated workers will play out in two ways, according to the report. First, there will be an increasing demand for higher-skilled workers within a specific occupation. And second, those occupations that demand workers with higher levels of education will grow faster. By 2031, only 36% of all jobs on the high school pathway will be defined as good compared to 79% on the bachelor’s degree pathway and 52% on the middle-skills pathway.

Managerial and professional office occupations are expected to be the largest source of good jobs in 2031, and 84% of good jobs in that category will be on the bachelor’s degree pathway. Other good jobs requiring at least a bachelor’s degree are projected for occupations such as education, training and library; healthcare professional and technical workers; and computer and mathematical science.

The middle-skills pathway will offer good jobs, many in blue-collar occupations such as construction and extraction and production, healthcare professional and technical workers, and protective services occupations. The report concludes that good blue-collar job opportunities on this pathway will be aided by large infrastructure investments made by the federal government.

Ten of 22 occupational groups will see net declines in good jobs for individuals on the high school pathway. However, many of those same occupations will see growth in the numbers of good jobs for those on the bachelor’s degree and middle-skills pathways.

For example, high school-educated workers held the largest share of good jobs in construction and extraction in 2021. However, between 2021 and 2031, construction and extraction occupations will add 893,000 net new good jobs for those on the middle-skills pathway, but for those on the high school pathway, the number of good jobs will decrease by 421,000.

“While the value of college faces growing skepticism, our report affirms that the bachelor’s degree pathway will be the dominant route to a good job in 2031, with a majority of good jobs forecasted to lie on the bachelor’s degree pathway,” said Catherine Morris, one of the report’s co-authors. “While the middle-skills pathway offers new opportunities, we still see the bachelor’s degree and middle-skills pathways as complements, not substitutes.”