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Can Afghanistan continue their dream run against unbeaten South Africa?

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5 months ago

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Can Afghanistan continue their dream run against unbeaten South Africa?

Match details

Afghanistan vs South Africa
Tarouba, 8.30pm local time

Big picture: Afghanistan look to continue dream run

Afghanistan played their first official fixture in 2004 as part of the Asian Cricket Council Trophy, which featured 15 teams. Twenty years later, they have done the unthinkable by making their first World Cup semi-final in the biggest World Cup featuring 20 teams.

In just 20 years, they have achieved what many teams might take 50 years to do. Afghanistan have always had the raw talent. They’ve now married it with elite skills and continue to upgrade them, thanks to global T20 exposure.

Their captain and lead spinner, Rashid Khan, is arguably the most sought-after T20 player in the world. Noor Ahmad, their second spinner, is a left-arm version of Rashid while Rahmanullah Gurbaz, their opener, can bruise oppositions in the powerplay. Fazalhaq Farooqi is on his way to becoming the next Trent Boult in T20 cricket while Naveen-ul-Haq has had Dwayne Bravo, Afghanistan’s bowling consultant and T20 legend, grooving and celebrating near the boundary with his variations. Eight of Afghanistan’s XI that toppled Bangladesh on Monday in Kingstown were part of IPL 2024.

Then, there is Mohammad Nabi, who of course played in Afghanistan’s first official fixture back in 2004. In a year in which his son made his Under-19 World Cup debut for Afghanistan, Nabi, 39, will turn up for Afghanistan in their first World Cup semi-final. Nabi has defeated 45 teams in his career and will now look to add South Africa to that list.

Mujeeb Ur Rahman was sidelined from the tournament after playing a solitary game, but Afghanistan, under Bravo’s tactical guidance, have still had enough depth to roll over oppositions. No attack has taken more wickets than Afghanistan’s 57 in this World Cup and their economy rate of 6.35 is second only to South Africa’s 6.10 among the Super-Eight teams.

Afghanistan, however, don’t have as much depth in their batting, especially in the middle order. And while Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran have struck up four 50-plus partnerships while batting first, their stands while chasing are eight against PNG, zero against West Indies, and 13 against India.

So, there’s a strong case for South Africa to make Afghanistan chase, try to separate their openers early, and put the middle order under pressure. Keshav Maharaj, their left-arm fingerspinner, will look to ace his match-up against a right-hander-heavy Afghanistan line-up on a Tarouba surface that may continue to offer variable bounce. Tabraiz Shamsi, the left-arm wristspinner, could also pose a threat with his variations and knowledge of Caribbean conditions, having spent a number of South African winters in the CPL.

Though Reeza Hendricks is struggling for form at the top, South Africa have a dynamic middle order with all of Aiden Markram, Tristan Stubbs and Heinrich Klaasen capable of countering spin, and a vastly experienced David Miller around to finish the innings.

South Africa have been on the precipice at several points during the World Cup, but they have somehow hauled themselves back to claim seven successive wins across challenging conditions. They need to win two more to secure their maiden World Cup title. No team has ever won a T20 World Cup unbeaten, so South Africa and India have the chance to rewrite history this time.

Form guide

Afghanistan WWLLW (last five T20Is, most recent first)
South Africa WWWWW

In the spotlight: Naveen-ul-Haq and Heinrich Klaasen

Afghanistan’s spinners need no introduction, so let’s talk about Naveen-ul-Haq. The seamer might not have taken the new ball had Mujeeb been available. But in the absence of Afghanistan’s powerplay spinner, Naveen has stepped up brilliantly to ease the load on Farooqi. His delivery to dismiss Travis Head – slanting in towards leg stump, then swinging and seaming away late to crash into middle – is a genuine contender for the ball of the tournament. With a number of slower balls in his repertoire, Naveen has also been difficult to get away at the death on the Caribbean pitches.

Heinrich Klaasen vs Rashid and Co could very well dictate the course of the game. His quasi-pulls and slog-sweeps can disrupt the rhythm of any spinner on any surface. Since the start of 2023, he has struck at 182.12 against spin in T20 cricket. His strike rate is the best among 41 batters who have played at least 40 innings against spin in T20 cricket during this period.

Team news: Gurbaz’s fitness under cloud

Gurbaz had suffered a blow on his knee while keeping wicket in the first over of Afghanistan’s defence against Bangladesh on Monday and immediately left the field with Mohammad Ishaq stepping in as a substitute keeper. Afghanistan didn’t train in Tarouba on the eve of the semi-final, and it remains to be seen if Gurbaz is fit to play. If Gurbaz doesn’t recover in time, Afghanistan might bring in Hazratullah Zazai at the top and perhaps make another change to squeeze Ishaq in as a keeper and middle-order batter.

Afghanistan (probable): 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk)/Hazratullah Zazai, 3 Azmatullah Omarzai, 4 Gulbadin Naib, 5 Mohammad Nabi, 6 Karim Janat/Mohammad Ishaq (wk), 7 Rashid Khan (capt), 8 Nangeyalia Kharote, 9 Naveen-ul-Haq, 10 Noor Ahmad, Fazalhaq Farooqi

South Africa might not run the risk of replacing Hendricks with rookie Ryan Rickelton in a semi-final. Considering the variable bounce and purchase for spinners at Tarouba, Shamsi will also likely keep his place ahead of death-bowling specialist Ottneil Baartman.

South Africa (probable): 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Reeza Hendricks, 3 Aiden Markram (capt), 4 David Miller, 5 Heinrich Klaasen, 6 Tristan Stubbs, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Keshav Maharaj, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Anrich Nortje, 11 Tabraiz Shamsi

Pitch and conditions: More variable bounce?

The conditions in Tarouba were characterised by variable bounce during the group stage. But Daren Ganga believes that the bounce will be truer on Wednesday after remedial work over the past two weeks. Dew has been often a major factor in the CPL games at this venue.

Stats and trivia: Afghanistan’s brittle middle order

  • Afghanistan bowlers have dominated the powerplay in this T20 World Cup, taking 20 wickets at an economy rate of 7.19 during this phase. In comparison, South Africa have managed only ten wickets though their economy rate (5.85) is lower than Afghanistan’s.
  • Afghanistan’s middle-order batters (Nos. 4-7) have the lowest strike rate (102.21) among the Super-Eight teams in this World Cup.
  • Klaasen has scored 27 runs against Rashid off 21 balls while being dismissed once in T20 cricket. The sample size is slightly bigger for Miller vs Rashid, with the match-up in favour of the wristspinner: 50 runs off 42 balls with four dismissals.
  • South Africa and India are the only two Full Members Afghanistan have not beaten in international cricket so far.

Quotes

“For us, it’s a new challenge and I think that makes us dangerous in the semi-finals as a side with nothing to lose and obviously a lot of pressure on the opposition.”
Afghanistan coach Jonathan Trott

“Definitely, it’s always great to dream and I think everyone in South Africa dreams of the time when a trophy gets lifted.”
South Africa coach Rob Walter

Deivarayan Muthu is a sub-editor at ESPNcricinfo

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