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Christmas, New Year’s Day travel forecast calls for heavy traffic on the roads

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Christmas, New Year’s Day travel forecast calls for heavy traffic on the roads

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As families celebrate the holidays together, travel forecasts are warning of potentially disruptive traffic congestion.

According to projections from AAA, over 119 million people will travel over 50 miles or more from their homes between Dec. 21 and Jan. 1. This will narrowly pass the previous record set during 2019 by around 64,000 travelers and is 3 million more travelers than the same time during 2023.

“Christmas falls on a Wednesday this year, so the highways and airports are going to be very busy on the weekends before and after the holiday,” said Bevi Powell, senior vice president of AAA East Central. “Pack your patience and follow AAA’s advice on how to arrive at your destination stress-free.”

Roads are expected to be busy throughout the holiday season

As usual, the most popular method of travel for Americans will be via personal vehicles. Families driving to their destinations will complete nearly 90% of holiday travel. Around 107 million people will be traveling in vehicles this year, just short of the records set in 2019. In the Mid-Atlantic region, which covers Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, over 12 million motorists are expected to fill the roadways with holiday travel.

Travel analysts say that road trips are a popular option for families, especially those with younger children, due to the flexibility and lower costs associated with the trips. Gas prices are lower than last year, with an increased trend in online shopping and remote work driving down the demand and reducing prices.

Car rental provider Hertz says that the cities seeing the largest demand for rental cars this holiday season include Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, Phoenix and Tampa. Pick-ups are expected to be busy on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21, with returns expected the weekend and Monday after Christmas.

AAA is reminding motorists to practice safety when driving this holiday season, especially with the increased volume of vehicles on the road. Drivers should follow the posted speed limits and drive only when alert and refreshed, never getting behind the wheel when overly tired or after drinking alcohol. Motorists should also slow down and move over when emergency responders or construction workers are on the side of the road.

INRIX: Avoid traffic during the holidays by traveling in the morning

As people travel along highways and popular roadways, delays in high-traffic areas will likely occur the weekends before Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. While traffic is expected to be minimal during the holidays themselves, the work week and typical weekend traffic combined with the holidays are likely going to cause congestion.

“With a near record number of auto travelers expected this holiday season, drivers should expect delays in and around major metro areas, with Sunday, Dec. 22, expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours during the week. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the evening commute.”

Date Worst Travel Time Best Travel Time
Thursday, Dec. 19 3 – 8 p.m. Before 11 a.m.
Friday, Dec. 20 1 – 8 p.m. Before 11 a.m.
Saturday, Dec. 21 4 – 8 p.m. Before 2 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 22 3 – 8 p.m. Before 12 p.m.
Monday, Dec. 23 1 – 6 p.m. Before 11 a.m.
Tuesday, Dec. 24 Minimal Traffic Impact Expected  —
Wednesday, Dec. 25 Minimal Traffic Impact Expected  —
Thursday, Dec. 26 12 – 5 p.m. Before 11 a.m.
Friday, Dec. 27 3 – 7 p.m. Before 2 p.m.
Saturday, Dec. 28 1:30 – 7 p.m. Before 11 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 29 12 – 6 p.m. Before 11 p.m.
Monday, Dec. 30 5 – 7 p.m. Before 2 p.m.
Tuesday, Dec. 31 Minimal Traffic Impact Expected  —
Wednesday, Jan. 01 Minimal Traffic Impact Expected  —
Thursday, Jan. 02 4 – 8 p.m. Before 3 p.m.
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, estimates traffic data for metro areas. Traffic in rural areas may be impacted differently.

According to travel forecasts, motorists in Boston, New York City, Seattle and Washington could see double the typical delays during peak travel times. Nationwide, travel times could be 30% longer due to high traffic.

Air and other travel modes also on the rise

AAA expects air travel to continue breaking records this holiday season, with 7.85 million passengers taking to the skies around the United States. This surpasses last year’s record of 7.5 million travelers despite a 4% increase in price. In the Mid-Atlantic region, an estimated 934,000 people will travel by airplane.

On average, tickets for flights cost $830 for domestic flights. International flights cost an average of $1,630 per ticket, a 13% increase from last year.

Popular destinations seem to be areas with tropical weather, with many people heading to beach resorts and cruises to end their year. Top destinations domestically include Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Anaheim and Tampa. For globetrotters, popular holiday destinations include Punta Cana, Mexicali, Cancun, Bahrain, and Puerto Vallarta.

Another growing trend is the popularity of ocean cruises, with a 37% increase in cruise bookings recorded this holiday season. Experts say cruises are particularly popular this time of year due to the access to various activities and food that can be shared fun among families.

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