College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: LSU vs. Ole Miss, Colorado vs. Kansas State magnified in Week 7

Weekends like these prove college football is appointment-viewing in October. With a bevy of top 25 matchups headlined by Ohio State-Oregon, Texas-Oklahoma and Ole Miss-LSU, national rankings will change dramatically as conference title races become a bit more clear once Week 7 is in the books.

For teams on the College Football Playoff bubble like the Rebels, Tigers and Sooners from the SEC, Saturday’s vast slate offers prime opportunities for respect, quality wins and a continued presence in the selection committee’s crosshairs ahead of next month’s initial rankings. 

The unpredictable Big 12 features a couple major matchups such as unbeaten Iowa State’s trek to West Virginia and Kansas State’s challenge at Colorado. If the home teams come out victors in those games, further chaos is here. And USC, after falling out of the AP Top 25 following its rocky Big Ten start, can leap back toward the front of the bubble if the Trojans hand Penn State its first loss of the season in Los Angeles. 

Strength of schedule and head-to-head results are primary separation points in the College Football Playoff picture, and unless you’re unbeaten or ranked inside the current top 10 at this point, beefing up that resume is top priority. Bubble Watch takes center stage this weekend.

MORE: Projected College Football Playoff bracket in Week 7

College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Week 7

Ole Miss (at LSU): Lane Kiffin’s team responded to its first loss of the season with a resounding win at South Carolina to keep every lofty goal out front heading into Baton Rouge, Louisiana. A win over LSU pushes Ole Miss toward the top of the SEC standings with a favorable slate upcoming (outside of a home showdown with Georgia).

Notre Dame (vs. Stanford): As long as Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish keep winning, a playoff berth is coming. Notre Dame has settled down since the upset loss to Northern Illinois, and its recent win over Louisville was notable. Army, Navy and USC await in the coming weeks.

LSU (vs. Ole Miss): If the Tigers want the showdown with Alabama to truly mean something in terms of CFP Rankings next month, beating Ole Miss is vital this weekend. LSU is a 3.5-point underdog at home and conditions — — a sellout crowd at night inside Tiger Stadium — are ripe for a win.

Texas A&M (bye): Coming off the blowout win over previously unbeaten Missouri last week, the Aggies are barging in on a five-game winning streak since the opening-weekend loss to Notre Dame. LSU is this team’s only nationally ranked opponent over the next six weeks prior to the rivalry weekend showdown with Texas — a contest that could decide who reaches the SEC Championship Game between the Lonestar State titans.

Utah (at Arizona State): As long as the Utes win their next three Big 12 games against unranked opponents, the season-ending stretch in November that includes BYU, Colorado and Iowa State will determine this team’s fate in the playoff picture and league title race.

Indiana (bye): It’s time to start giving the Hoosiers their due this season under Curt Cignetti. This is a squad no team in the Big Ten is looking forward to playing given the fact Indiana has eclipsed 41 points in five consecutive contests. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is playing at a high level, and there’s confidence within this locker room. Michigan and Ohio State dot the schedule late for one of the conference’s four remaining unbeatens.

Pittsburgh (vs. Cal): For the first time this season, the unbeaten Panthers (5-0) enter the playoff conversation ahead of this week’s must-win against Cal to keep this momentum alive. Pat Narduzzi’s team plays SMU and Clemson next month, so there’s still several ACC games that will alter the playoff rankings soon to come.

Others in the mix: One-loss teams inside the current top 20 of the AP poll — Kansas State, Oklahoma and Missouri — all face pivotal matchups in the coming weeks during conference play. The Wildcats travel to Colorado this weekend, the Sooners battle Texas in the Red River Rivalry and Missouri takes on Alabama to close out October. All of these teams can make themselves quite attractive heading into the season’s final month with stellar play over the next couple of games.

Colorado and SMU are teams worthy of merit as well. The Buffaloes haven’t lost since falling flat at Nebraska last month, and the Mustangs control their own destiny in the ACC Championship picture since their loss came out-of-conference to BYU. Colorado jumps into Bubble Watch in Week 8 if the Buffaloes are able to take out Kansas State this weekend.

One-loss UNLV, matching unbeatens Army and Navy, along with unblemished Liberty are the others in the Group of Five mix. The Rebels’ loss to Syracuse was damaging, but they’ll regain their early season momentum later this month if they’re able to knock off Boise State. Army and Navy each play Notre Dame in the coming weeks, so we’ll know soon if the service academies still have a shot. The Flames keep getting it done late in games following Tuesday night’s overtime win over FIU, but the schedule leaves much to be desired in the Group of Five pecking order.

About the expanded CFP

The first College Football Playoff Rankings from the selection committee will be released on Nov. 5, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014. 

In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee’s opinion. 

First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.