College Football Playoff Bubble Watch, Week 5: Notre Dame faces tough test, Utah eyes leg up in Big 12 race

The College Football Playoff bubble looks more like a swelling hot air balloon entering Week 5 with nearly three dozen potential contenders in the hunt for spots in the 12-team field. Unless a team is saddled with multiple losses already, they’re still in the mix with considerable optimism — well, at least that’s how it’s being sold from a coaching standpoint to keep players engaged.

The hits are coming over the next few weeks as conference play kicks into high gear and true separation begins. Unbeatens Utah and Missouri — ranked at Nos. 10 and 11 in the latest AP Top 25, respectively — were not picked as conference champions or at-large playoff selections this week for various reasons, but they’re leading the conversation at the top of the bubble entering the weekend.

If you’re scoring at home, there’s still 26 unbeaten teams across college football, and a few are going to play each other this week — including Illinois-Penn State and Georgia-Alabama — to help sort out some of the chaos within early season rankings.

MORE: Projected College Football Playoff Rankings, bracket entering Week 5

College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Week 5

Missouri (Bye): The Tigers’ playoff hopes nearly took a major hit against Vanderbilt, but Missouri survived in overtime to win its SEC opener. It’ll use an open week to prepare for nationally ranked Texas A&M, the first of three top 25 teams left on the slate during conference play.

Utah (vs. Arizona): Most are taking the Utes as the Big 12 representative in the playoff as the projected champion at this point. However, BYU got the nod this week given the lingering uncertainty surrounding quarterback Cameron Rising. UCF and Iowa State also flex unbeaten records in the conference. You can include those teams on the bubble, along with a couple one-loss squads capable of making a run. The Utes play the Knights and Cyclones the final two games of the season. The Big 12 is the Power Four’s most unpredictable conference title race right now.

Notre Dame (vs. Louisville): Marcus Freeman knows his team must beat a No. 15-ranked Louisville on Saturday and continue moving as far away from the upset loss to Northern Illinois as possible. There might be a scenario in which a one-loss Notre Dame is left out of the playoff, but we don’t see it.

UNLV (vs. Fresno State): Talk about a midseason distraction for Barry Odom. UNLV is dealing with a pair of unexpected departures from the program this week ahead of its pivotal Mountain West opener. There’s several important games ahead for the Rebels, but finishing unbeaten as league champs is the only way they could guarantee a playoff spot.

Michigan (vs. Minnesota): At least for a week, the Wolverines saw no need for a passing game during a momentum-building victory over USC. That keeps Michigan’s season alive in the Big Ten standings and playoff picture after this program won the national championship last season. Oregon and Ohio State are the two barometer matchups left with superior meaning, but the trip to Illinois could put a new conference team on the bubble if the Fighting Illini continue to win.

USC (vs. Wisconsin): The Big Ten champion is going to the playoff, but the Trojans falling to Michigan in their conference opener last week might’ve nullified a shot at getting an at-large spot unless USC is able to win the next 10 games. Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers and Nebraska are included, along with a showdown on Nov. 30 against Notre Dame that could decide the 11-seed.

Boise State (vs. Washington State): The Broncos’ lone loss — 37-34 on the road at Oregon — was respectable, and if they’re able to win out and take the Mountain West, the resume would include victories over Washington State (Saturday), UNLV and Oregon State. If there’s another Group of Five team to watch right now, it would be unbeaten Liberty. It’s hard to imagine the selection committee believing in the Flames if they’re unbeaten, and there’s a one-loss option available with a considerably tougher schedule, but it’s possible. Jamey Chadwell’s team is gunning for its second consecutive unbeaten regular season but hasn’t looked flawless despite their unblemished start.

Best of the rest: There’s a slew of one-loss teams among the Power Four conferences still in great shape to reach the playoff if they can get hot — and win out. Too many to name, in fact, with LSU, Kansas State and Oklahoma State among them. Much like the Group of Five, it’s too early to pinpoint league champions for those in the auto-bid category, but there’s enough sample size to handicap the haves from the have nots a bit nearing October.

About the expanded CFP

The first College Football Playoff Rankings from the selection committee will be released on Nov. 5, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014. 

In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee’s opinion. 

First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.