College Football Playoff race: Games on October schedule that will heavily impact postseason picture

October is an extremely important month for the College Football Playoff race now that 12 spots are up for grabs, including five automatic bids for the Power Four conference champions and the highest-rated Group of Five champion. 

Both conference standings and the overall national race will take shape over the next four weekends of action, leading into the first CFP Rankings reveal on Nov. 5. Favorites will create some distance from the rest of the pack, while some programs in good standing could see their seasons tanked in tough matchups. 

Every week in October brings at least one game absolutely brimming with CFP implications. As of the most recent AP Top 25, there are four top-10 matchups in the month of October alone, three of which pit SEC programs against one another. The Big Ten scramble will also gain some clarity with two matchups between top-15 programs on the docket. The Group of Five even has a playoff-worthy game as the month unfolds. 

Here are the matchups with major CFP implications that you need to keep an eye on in the month of October. AP rankings are at time of publish. 

This is a huge test for Missouri for multiple reasons. It will be the Tigers’ first trip outside the friendly confines of Faurot Field this season. They also lost a bit of luster after beating Boston College by just six points and needing overtime to take down Vanderbilt. To go to Texas A&M and win the only game featuring ranked teams in Week 6 would be quite a statement. 

A win for the Aggies would vault them right back into the CFP conversation. They’d also be the first SEC team to secure a 3-0 conference record. 

In years past, this would have been a marquee nonconference matchup of which dreams are made. Now, the winner of this game takes poll position and controls their own destiny in a loaded Big Ten. 

Ohio State has yet to be really tested — though its Week 6 game against Iowa should provide some genuine indication of the Buckeyes’ relative strength — while Oregon got off to a sluggish start but has bounced back in the past couple of weeks with consecutive 20-plus point wins. Both teams should be undefeated by Oct. 12, and there’s the potential that both are top five. 

No. 7 Penn State at No. 11 USC (Oct. 12) 

Penn State has flown under the radar despite looking like one of the Big Ten’s most complete teams. The defense is as good as ever, but new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has quarterback Drew Allar playing the best ball of his career. Penn State’s elite running backs are flourishing as well, and the Nittany Lions lead the Big Ten in rushing (251 yards per game) as a result. 

Penn State is a legit Big Ten competitor and could solidify its status with a win here. There’s also a real chance that James Franklin’s squad goes 11-1, at worst, provided it can get past USC. The Trojans have acclimated to Big Ten life well after losing by three points on the road against Michigan a couple weeks ago. This is a must-win if they want to stay relevant in the conference conversation and, by extension, the playoff. 

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU (Oct. 12) 

Consider this a potential playoff eliminator game. Ole Miss was seen as a lock to make the playoff in the preseason after hauling in the nation’s best transfer portal class. The Rebels should have dominated an easy schedule, but then they lost to unranked Kentucky at home. 

They’re behind the 8-ball now, though a road win against LSU would go a long way towards revitalizing their stock. LSU has put its season-opening loss to USC fully in the rearview by winning four straight games, including a thrilling triumph against South Carolina. Getting past Ole Miss could fully reestablish the Tigers’ legitimacy in the CFP hierarchy. A loss would be damaging to either team. 

Week 8 is shaping up to be one of the most impactful weekends in this sport’s history. Knoxville will likely be the epicenter. Tennessee and Alabama should both be undefeated by the time kickoff rolls around, though the Vols’ next two opponents (Arkansas and Florida) can be traps. 

Alabama, meanwhile, travels to Vanderbilt and then hosts South Carolina. Not much justification needs to be made for the magnitude of this game. Just go back and watch Tennessee’s win against Alabama in 2022, which propelled the Vols to No. 1 in the first set of CFP Rankings that year. 

No. 5 Georgia at No. 2 Texas (Oct. 19)

It’s been a while since there was legitimate regular-season pressure on Georgia. The Bulldogs’ 42-game regular-season winning streak was shattered in a 41-34 loss to Alabama. That obviously didn’t eliminate Kirby Smart’s squad from the race; the Bulldogs could even go 10-2 and probably still find their way into a 12-team field. 

Still, a win against Texas is crucial to preserve their SEC Championship Game hopes amid a top-heavy field. Texas can’t look past its Oct. 12 game against No. 19 Oklahoma, even if Georgia presents Texas’ first real opportunity against a traditional SEC power with a chance to assert itself as a conference fixture. 

The ACC is already taking shape, with Clemson and Miami emerging as the clear frontrunners. Louisville is a potential chaos agent. The Cardinals are the only ranked team remaining on Miami’s schedule. They also have to travel to Clemson, though we won’t be treated to that game until November. Miami clearing this hurdle — provided it doesn’t stumble beforehand — busts the door wide open for a 12-0 season. Louisville can at least throw its hat in the playoff ring with an upset. 

No. 21 Boise State at No. 25 UNLV (Friday, Oct. 25) 

The Mountain West is the clear favorite to snag the Group of Five’s CFP spot. The real question, at this point, is which team will take advantage? Boise State and UNLV are the early standouts. Though this game probably won’t be the end of the conversation — the Broncos and the Rebels could, and likely will, see each other again in the conference championship game — but the winner obviously enters the driver’s seat. 

No. 9 Missouri at No. 1 Alabama (Oct. 26) 

The outlook of this contest depends largely upon earlier entries on this list. As it stands: Alabama will be Missouri’s first, and only, top-10 opponent of the year, while Missouri will be Alabama’s second top-10 opponent in the month of October and third in the span of five weeks. 

The Crimson Tide are already 1-0 in such games. Going 2-1, at the very least, would virtually lock their spot in a 12-team field, provided they can run the table otherwise. It’s clear what a win in this situation would do for a program like Missouri.