Conference championship game projections: How each league stacks up as the calendar turns to October

The 2024 college football season hasn’t reached its halfway point, but we’ve seen plenty of games have altered the college football landscape. At the very least, some conference races are already taking shape. 

Few wins were as impactful as Alabama’s 41-34 triumph against Georgia. The Crimson Tide rose to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 Poll in the aftermath and now control their own destiny. 

In the Big 12, preseason favorites like Oklahoma State (0-2 so far in league play) and Utah are falling behind after tough closes to September, while new contenders are emerging in their wake. The ACC and Big Ten landscapes gaining clarity, as well. 

All this is set amid the backdrop of a 12-team College Football Playoff that adds more emphasis to winning a conference title than ever. Each of the Power Four conference champions — along the with highest-rated Group of Five conference champion — claim automatic bids, taking their fates largely out of the hands of the selection committee. 

Here’s an early projection for each Power Four conference championship game, and some Group of Five conference title matchups that could have a major impact on the College Football Playoff race. We don’t see the MAC making noise in the CFP race, not after Northern Illinois’ loss two weeks ago, and we omitted the Sun Belt conference championship from this article, but right now it’s James Madison-or-bust for the conference, which still uses divisions. James Madison is in fact included in the latest CFP bracket projections as the No. 12 seed. 

ACC: Clemson vs. Miami 

Not much suspense here. Clemson and Miami have been the two best teams in the ACC for a while now, and both have wide open paths to Charlotte. The Tigers and Hurricanes have just one ranked team remaining on their respective schedules — No. 22 Louisville — and the Tigers get to play the Cardinals at home. Miami does have a pair of intriguing road games against California (this weekend) and Georgia Tech, while Clemson could be tested by the likes of Pittsburgh and South Carolina. But Florida State’s sudden downfall makes things a lot easier for both teams, and greatly decreases the ACC’s overall strength. 

Big Ten: Ohio State vs. Oregon 

Again, really going out on a limb with this pick. There were some legitimate concerns surrounding Oregon early in the season as it stumbled to narrow wins against FCS Idaho and Boise State. Boise’s recent resurgence and the fact that the Ducks have since eviscerated Oregon State and UCLA by a combined score of 83-27 have quieted the buzz a bit. It’s been particularly encouraging that Oregon hasn’t allowed a single sack in each of its last two wins after allowing defenders to get through to quarterback Dillon Gabriel seven times over the first two weeks. 

Anything short of the Big Ten Championship Game would be an abject failure for Ohio State. It’s hard to get a feel for how good the Buckeyes truly are, given they spent the first month pounding vastly inferior competition, but a Week 6 clash against Iowa should be a decent litmus test. On paper, Ohio State’s roster can go toe to toe with anyone in the nation. If you are looking for a spoiler, keep an eye on Penn State. I was very close to including the Nittany Lions over Oregon given their favorable schedule. They don’t have to play Michigan or Oregon and get Ohio State at home. 

Big 12: Iowa State vs. BYU 

Picking the Big 12 Championship Game is about as easy as getting a bullseye in darts while wearing a blindfold at this point, so it’s best to go with the two most consistent teams. Or at least the teams that haven’t lost in head-scratching fashion. Iowa State’s offense hasn’t been wonderful through four games, but it hasn’t really mattered. The Cyclones are smothering their opponents with excellent defensive and special teams play. They currently lead the Big 12 in every major metric, except for rush defense and have allowed fewer than 10 points in three games. Rocco Becht is a solid enough quarterback and can get the job done when he needs to. Iowa State also has a pair of potential game-breakers on offense in wide receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Closing the year against Utah and Kansas State will be tough, but Utes quarterback Cameron Rising’s health is a weekly question mark and the Wildcats have to travel to Ames. 

BYU is one of three Big 12 schools that is already 2-0 so far. Its resume is the most impressive. The Cougars opened their league slate by dragging Kansas State 38-9 and then went on the road as underdogs and beat Baylor 34-28, blowing a much more sizable lead in the process. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has provided BYU the kind of stability that it hasn’t had in a while at the position. While the Cougars’ rushing attack has been lacking, they’ve also been without their top two running backs since a season-opening win against SMU. Both are expected to return ahead of a key Oct. 12 clash against Arizona. It’s clear BYU’s biggest remaining test is on the road against Utah. See above for the concern with the Utes. 

All that said, I want to cover my bases by saying that at least eight teams, and probably more, still have a realistic shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game. Colorado is turning heads, Arizona’s got a spark after beating Utah, the Utes can’t be counted out — even without Rising — Kansas State looks like a juggernaut when it’s hitting on all cylinders (though inconsistency makes it hard to project the Wildcats) and even Texas Tech is 2-0 in the conference thus far. 

SEC: Texas vs. Alabama

This matchup certainly isn’t a layup, but it makes the most sense at this point. Alabama seized poll position after its win against Georgia, simultaneously snapping the Bulldogs’ 42-game regular season winning streak and proving that the Crimson Tide will still be a national fixture under new coach Kalen DeBoer. Texas’ first SEC test wasn’t as thrilling, as backup quarterback Arch Manning led the Longhorns to a 35-13 win against hapless Mississippi State, but few teams have looked as impressive over the first month. Things ratchet up on Oct. 12 against Oklahoma and Texas has a huge “prove it” game at home against Georgia on Oct. 19. Alabama’s path is far from clear, too, it hosts No. 9 Missouri and travels to No. 4 Tennessee and No. 13 LSU down the line. 

The Vols and Tigers should not be discounted in this race. Nor should Georgia, obviously, even with the early season setback. 

Group of Five matchups with College Football Playoff implications

AAC: Tulane vs. Navy 

Navy is real, folks. The Midshipmen are an offensive wagon, led by the best quarterback you probably aren’t paying attention to in Blake Horvath. Yes, he can run, but he also has Navy’s passing attack humming like rarely seen. All Troy coach Jon Sumrall knows how to do is win championships. After back-to-back Sun Belt titles at Troy, he has the Green Wave right in the thick of things in his first year with the new program. 

C-USA: Liberty vs. Sam Houston 

Liberty is the runaway favorite to finish undefeated and capture the Conference USA crown, but will it be enough to propel the Flames into the College Football Playoff without a marquee win? That’ll be a tough decision for the committee to make, provided the Flames run the table. Shoutout to Sam Houston, which has rebounded from a rough first year at the FBS level to emerge as a legitimate contender. An Oct. 16 game against Western Kentucky will go a long way towards deciding the final standings, but the Bearkats get the benefit of playing at home. 

Mountain West: Boise State vs. UNLV 

We’ll get a preview of this matchup on Oct. 25 when Boise State travels to UNLV in an under-the-radar game of the year candidate. Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty has (deservedly) stolen headlines as a singular unstoppable force. UNLV has been equally impressive. The Rebels had a whirlwind week that saw them lose starting quarterback Matthew Sluka over a public NIL dispute. They then beat a very good Fresno State team 59-14, posting season highs in points against an FBS team and yards passing (182) behind the arms and legs of quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams.