Covering the Tracks–Purdue-Nebraska from a gambling perspective

Week 3 Recap

The column goes 0-2 with Purdue failing to cover and the total going over.  On a somewhat positive side, this column cashed Mockobee anytime at +110, Hankerson 2 touchdowns at +425, and although Max Klare did not score first, he scored Purdue’s first touchdown.  This column is a lot more fun to write when Purdue is competitive.

Futures

For those unfamiliar, Sportsbooks put out betting lines at the start of every season for bets related to the entirety of the season.  These are known as “future bets” or “futures”.  I will keep these updated through the season to show change in perceptions by sportsbook on Purdue (lines provided by FanDuel, this is not an endorsement of FanDuel, please see caveat on shopping lines below).  Please note, the win total amounts will not change, with that being said:

Purdue to win the national title: 1000-to-1 (Opened 1000-to-1)

2024 Regular Season Wins: 4.5 (Over 4.5 wins +142, Under 4.5 wins -178)

Purdue to win 6 or more games: +300

Purdue to win the Big Ten: 400-to-1 (Opened 400-to-1)

*NEWLY ADDED* Hudson Card Heisman: 500-1 

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 9/27/24:

Current spread: Purdue +10 (Opened Purdue +10).

Moneyline: Purdue +165, Oregon State -200

1H Spread: Purdue +6.5, O/U 23.5

Over/Under: 48 (Opened 47)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 14% on Purdue, 73% on over

Money: 7% on Purdue, 32% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue and Nebraska both enter this game off tough losses, but for very different reasons.  Nebraska is fresh off a second half collapse against Illinois which led to an OT loss.  Purdue got blown on by a below average Oregon State team.  Bettors are all over Nebraska, which should not come as a surprise.  However, the underdog has actually performed very well in this series.  Nebraska will need to improve its second half offense, while Purdue just needs to improve in literally every facet.  The addition of Nyland Green should improve the pass defense, but Purdue will have a tough time with the Nebraska running game.  Can the Homecoming Crowd give Purdue a boost?  Probably not, I would expect this to be a very, very red crowd.  

Trend Analysis for Oregon State

· The underdog in Purdue-Nebraska is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this series.

· Purdue is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 3-6 ATS against Conference Opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 4-5 ATS after a loss under Walters.

· The over is 4-2 when Purdue is a home underdog under Walters.

· The over is 5-3-1 when Purdue has played a Conference Opponent under Walters.

· The over is 6-2-1 the week after a Purdue loss under Walters.

· Nebraska is 0-1 ATS as an away favorite under Coach Matt Rhule.

· Nebraska is 3-6-1 ATS against Conference Opponents under Rhule.

· Nebraska is 2-3-1 ATS after a loss under Rhule.

· The over is 1-0 when Nebraska is a home underdog under Rhule.

· The over is 5-5 when Nebraska plays a Conference Opponent under Rhule.

· The over is 2-4 the week after a Nebraska loss under Rhule.

Miscellaneous Factors

· On The Brink.  The tide has turned.  Ticket prices have plummeted.  Sell-offs are occurring.  The reality of the situation is no one believes in Purdue.  Does Purdue believe in Purdue?  This is the season.  Am I expecting Purdue to win?  No, of course not.  However, Purdue has its back firmly up against the wall on the brink of total collapse.  They have to show life on Saturday.  They have no choice.  Desperation is a hell of a motivator.

· Greener Pastures.  One bright spot for Purdue?  The Purdue debut of Nyland Green.  Now unless he is the second coming of Travis Hunter or Chris Gamble, I do not foresee his appearance impacting the final result of this game.  However, this could provide a massive boost to a Purdue secondary and maybe, MAYBE, make the game competitive, or at least more competitive than it would have been otherwise.  A pick-6 on a freshman QB in Nyland’s debut would be pretty fun. 

·  Big Ten Season.  I understand the season has been, well, dismal against FBS opponents.  I hear you.  I do.  BUT, but, this is the technical start of the Big Ten season.  Everything is still ahead of Purdue, in theory (A very bleak theory).  The back is against the wall, the non-conference, in no uncertain terms, a nightmare situation.  The point of this is simply to illustrate that Purdue has plenty to play for.  This team does not lack talent, it lacks proper coaching.  The sole positive?  Coaching can vastly change week to week. 

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  In the few privileged years I have had writing this column, never, ever have I seen a money disparity as large as this one.  Your parents, your third cousin, your dentist, the watercooler guy at work, all of them are on Nebraska spread.  And quite frankly, can you blame them?  Nebraska has looked, from a wins and loss column standpoint, largely like a new team from the past.  The Illinois loss was a return to normalcy for Nebraska, but Raiola has been everything expected and a lot more.  All of this to say, of course everyone is on Nebraska.  The biggest question I see, why, if 95% of money is on Nebraska, has the spread held at 10?  The books are so liable if Nebraska covers, you would think the line would move closer to 11 or even 14 to try and solicit Purdue bets.  Now, a caveat, we saw reverse line money movement in both of Purdue’s last two games, and a fat lot of good that did.  All I know is the Sportsbooks need Purdue to cover, and they need Purdue bad.  The total does not have bet volume.  The money that has been bet is on the under, so we will follow the money.   EDGE: Purdue, Under.

Trends: Neither of these second-year coaches have a particularly positive ATS track record.  In fact, neither coach has above a .500 record in these spots.  The good news?  Someone has to cover (I guess a Nebraska win by 10 on the dot would be fitting).  The trends have shown the over is a really good play for Purdue when a home underdog and after a loss.  For Nebraska, a conference game played after a loss is normally going under.  The fun trend for this series is the underdog going 9-1 ATS in the last 10.  Now, it is important to note, these current coaches have been present for only one of those games, and it was played in Lincoln.  So how much stock should you put in that trend?  Probably not much, but what fun is that?  The other trend worth discussing is Nebraska’s second half offense.  As someone who had Nebraska Team Total Over 34.5 against Colorado and maybe is bitter over Nebraska scoring 0 points in the second half to finish with 28… the Nebraska second half offense has been lackluster. In games against UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, and Illinois, the Nebraska 2H offense has scored 10, 0, 13,  and 7, respectively.  This trend could push you to take Nebraska 1H.  It would be so fitting for Nebraska to find their second half mojo against a down Purdue team.    EDGE: No real ATS trend, Push on total.

Situation:  To determine Purdue’s situational spot, I would recommend hopping over to your nearing Thesaurus and looking up synonyms for dire.  It is a must win, or at the very least, a must compete spot.  Purdue looks like one of the worst teams in major college football.  There is no identity on either side of the ball, and progress from Coach Walters in year two looks non-existent.  This is not a desire to dog on Purdue (although that felt therapeutic), but rather, to illustrate the notion of Purdue being untouchable by the public.  No sane human being watched the results of Purdue-ND and Purdue-Oregon State and thought “Purdue +10? VALUE CITY” (Except me, but I am a degenerate).  The public consensus on Raiola has been fairly high, and even after the loss last week to Illinois, most people seem to have a pretty positive view on Nebraska, hence the money splits.  For me, once a team has reached a point where its own fans start willingly hammering the other team in consensus, Vegas has its trap line ready.  From a total standpoint, Purdue has looked bad on offense and bad on defense.  So, it is hard to say situationally we are due.  I would expect Purdue to play better on both sides of the ball, but that does not give a real edge either way. Nebraska’s offense has been good, not great, but the defense has been excellent outside Illinois.  EDGE: Purdue.

Total Analysis:  The two worst parts about writing this column are 1. Losing, and 2. Constantly having to pick Purdue. I take pride in attempting to eliminate as much bias as I can, and I really try to stick to numbers.  After two straight losses ATS, it is easy to say is Purdue is due.  It is just as easy for me to flip to Nebraska after the last two weeks and disregard everything else.  The numbers are the numbers.  The numbers, as gross as this may be, suggest Purdue.  So with Purdue I begrudgingly ride until the lack of identity and adjustment drives me into a pit of despair so deep, it would take a couple Zach Edeys to get me out.

Prediction:  Nebraska wins 27-20.

Official Plays: 2 Unit Purdue +10. .5 Unit Under 48.

Bonus Bets:  Jahmal Banks FTD +1100. Max Klare FTD +1700.  Purdue defense anytime +475.  Nebraska 1H -6.5.  Devin Mockobee 100+ yards rushing +450.  

Welcome to the 2024 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 Oregon State Beavers.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Oregon State by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.