Creators Spur More Spend this Holiday Season, Adobe Forecasts

People are ready to shop till they drop as inflation starts to ease, and more of that spending is being spurred by creators and social media influencers.

This holiday season (which Adobe measures from between Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), U.S. online commerce sales are expected to reach $240.8 billion, an 8.4% growth compared to last year, according to new data from Adobe Analytics.

“We’re returning to the levels we saw in 2021,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.

In 2023, online shoppers spent $221.8 billion, a 4.9% increase from the previous year. Mobile shopping is expected to reach a record $128.1 billion, growing 12.8% from last year. This would make up 53.2% of the total online spending this season, surpassing desktop shopping.

The report analyzes over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Record spending

During Cyber Week—including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday—online spending is expected to reach $40.6 billion, up 7% from last year, comprising 16.9% of the spend this holiday season.

Cyber Monday is anticipated to be the biggest shopping day, with $13.2 billion in spending, up 6.1% from last year. Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion, up 8.7% year-over-year) are expected to surpass Cyber Monday in year-over-year growth.

A survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers found that 71% plan to shop online on Black Friday, and 70% actively seek out deals during Cyber Week.

“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways,” said Pandya in a statement.

Influencers spur more spending

Paid search is the most effective lever that marketers use to drive online retail sales, accounting for a 28% share of online revenue from Jan. 1 to Sept. 3, 2024. This is expected to grow by between 1% and 3% during the holiday season.

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