Diontae Johnson traded to Baltimore Ravens: Fantasy football fallout

Diontae Johnson’s time in Carolina proved to be nothing more than a layover on his way to playing with an AFC contender. Just months after being traded from the Steelers to the Panthers, Johnson is heading back to the AFC North in a fifth and sixth-round pick swap with the Baltimore Ravens. That’s an extremely low-cost deal for a Ravens team that’s second in both EPA per play and success rate.

No one can blame a team as good as Baltimore for pushing their chips into the center in an attempt to reach the top of the range of outcomes, but it’s not like they were hurting for impact pass-catchers.

What Diontae Johnson brings to the Ravens

Zay Flowers is having a strong second season and they’ve just now started to unleash him on in-breaking routes, minimizing some of the Mickey Mouse screen work the Ravens overdid in Weeks 1 and 2. Rashod Bateman is finally healthy and giving them stable play at the X-receiver spot. He ranks fourth in the NFL in both EPA per target and percentage of catches to go for a first down or touchdown, per TruMedia. Mark Andrews’ season is stabilizing. He and Isaiah Likely have given this team big moments at the tight end position.

The problem for any of those guys is overall volume. None of them are going to consistently push for eight-plus targets on a weekly basis, both because of the surrounding pieces in the passing game and Baltimore’s commitment to its strong rushing attack. Adding Diontae Johnson to the mix creates an even tighter target squeeze.

There’s no question that Johnson brings a dimension to this team that none of the others provide. He’s the best pure separator against man and press coverage on the perimeter. The Ravens have seen Cover 1 at the eighth-highest rate this season, per Fantasy Points Data, so you need one-on-one man-beaters on the outside. Bateman has made good on those looks this season, hence his per-catch efficiency, but Johnson gives them another proven body who can do it at high volume.

There’s almost no shot Johnson comes close to matching his 27.1% target per route rate from Weeks 1 to 8 with the Panthers in Baltimore. He’s also likely to dig into Flowers’ 27% target share and increase the volatility in the weekly output of Bateman and Andrews.

This trade is a really good move for the Ravens offense and Johnson brings separation skills any team, particularly a playoff contender, can use. It’s just hard to make the math work when it comes to fantasy.

What do we make of the Panthers’ remaining pass-catchers?

As for Carolina, some interesting young pieces remain on offense, but it’s hard to imagine anyone is going to run to fantasy glory. The offense ranks 31st in EPA per play; even the vaunted Andy Dalton era, which helped prop up Johnson, sputtered to an end. At this point, the Panthers are likely close to turning back to Bryce Young just to see if there’s anything to mine from the young passer. Regardless, rookie receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker are the names to know.

Legette was and is a project receiver but I love the way the Panthers have used him. They haven’t asked him to win out at X-receiver on vertical routes just because he’s big and fast. Instead, they’ve deployed him off the line and had him run over-the-middle routes that best suit his current skill level. That’s good coaching.

Fellow rookie Coker is an undrafted free agent who I’ve been really impressed with on film. He’s an advanced technician with a great feel for zone coverage. Coker has taken 70.5% of his snaps from the slot this season and has earned playing time. Perhaps Adam Thielen comes back and takes the job but with Carolina clearly looking toward the future and unconcerned with 2024 results, that doesn’t make sense. Especially not with Coker giving them good reps.

Elsewhere on the roster, veteran receiver David Moore, who has familiarity with Dave Canales from Seattle and Tampa Bay, stepped into Johnson’s vacated X-receiver role last week and led the team in routes. He’s not a target earner so he will just open concepts up for Legette and Coker. Former second-rounder Jonathan Mingo is falling down the depth chart and his skills overlap too much with the 2024 rookies.

The Panthers’ passing offense doesn’t appear able to provide the soil needed to grow good fruit. However, those names are good to know in case something drastically changes.