World
Dodgers vs. Yankees 2024 World Series preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more
By Fabian Ardaya, Chris Kirschner and Eno Sarris
It’s Yankees versus Dodgers in October. ‘Nuff said.
Our writers preview a World Series matchup between two of baseball’s most storied franchises, with no shortage of star power and storylines.
Game times
Game 1: Yankees at Dodgers, Friday, Oct. 25, Time TBD, Fox
Game 2: Yankees at Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 26, Time TBD, Fox
Game 3: Dodgers at Yankees, Monday, Oct. 28, Time TBD, Fox
Game 4: Dodgers at Yankees, Tuesday, Oct. 29, Time TBD, Fox
Game 5: Dodgers at Yankees, Wednesday, Oct. 30, Time TBD, Fox (if necessary)
Game 6: Yankees at Dodgers, Friday, Nov. 1, Time TBD, Fox (if necessary)
Game 7: Yankees at Dodgers, Saturday, Nov. 2, Time TBD, Fox (if necessary)
Pitching matchups
In a matchup of behemoths, one that features maybe the two best regular-season teams (and two of the richest), it might be surprising to say that this World Series probably won’t be about the arms. But research has shown that offense might be the most important postseason strength a team can have, and these two pitching staffs weren’t top-five regular-season units by any measure.
These are two of the best offenses in baseball pitted against two pitching staffs that are just trying to find ways to make things work. On New York’s side, there’s some good news in the rotation, at least. Gerrit Cole is showing his best velocity of the season, if not his vintage command. Carlos Rodón has top-shelf stuff, and suddenly looks like Andy Pettitte out there after a session with the legendary Yankees lefty. Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil represent more depth than the Dodgers have in this department.
In the Yankees’ bullpen, Tommy Kahnle’s all-changeup approach is working, Clay Holmes has been good if not great, and Luke Weaver and his revamped arsenal have been (mostly) awesome. Funky Jake Cousins has been walking or striking out everyone, and could end up being a wild card.
That bullpen comes up a little short in comparison to a Dodger ’pen that has shown the depth they featured in the regular season, when they had 15 relievers with above-average stuff. Daniel Hudson, Anthony Banda, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia have combined to throw 32 postseason innings with only three earned runs allowed — and all of those runs came in Game 6 of the NLCS, by which point the Mets had seen their stuff repeatedly in the series.
Jack Flaherty’s velocity was down in his last two starts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler had good stuff in their last starts, but the conditions might have been ideal for them. How many times can they face the middle of the Yankees’ lineup before they give way to the bullpen? And how many times will those great hitters in pinstripes face the Dodgers ’pen before they figure them out?
It’s a race to 108 outs in four wins. The longer this series goes, the more it favors the better lineup — because those hitters will get multiple looks at every starter and every reliever on the other side. That means that bulk still matters. As these two pitching staffs lurch their way to the end, the Yankees have better bulk options and a slight edge on the mound. — Sarris
Why the Dodgers will win
Their offense is dynamic and just contributed to the fourth-highest run differential in a postseason series, with the type of patience to strain even the deepest of starting staffs, and plenty of thump from Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts all the way down to Max Muncy, Will Smith and NLCS MVP Tommy Edman (the latter two combined to drive in six runs in the NLCS clincher on Sunday). Their injuries have certainly taken a toll: It’s hard to imagine how different this path would have looked for the Dodgers if Tyler Glasnow or Gavin Stone or Clayton Kershaw or Dustin May or any number of their injured starting pitchers were available during this postseason. But they’ve managed to survive nonetheless, with a dominant (if heavily used) bullpen that has gotten magnificent seasons out of two established veterans, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson, whom they’re paying a combined $3 million this year.
The hope, as well, is that five days off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series will allow the Dodgers to get more out of Freddie Freeman, who has played through a badly sprained right ankle in October. — Ardaya
Why the Yankees will win
The Yankees are playing their most complete baseball of the season in October.
After the bullpen was their biggest weakness for the majority of the regular season, it developed into a strength starting in mid-September and carrying through October. Kahnle has yet to allow a run in six appearances; Weaver has 12 strikeouts in eight appearances; and Tim Hill has emerged as a high-leverage reliever who could potentially neutralize Los Angeles’ left-handed hitters, namely Ohtani. They might also get starting pitcher Nestor Cortes, who has missed the first two rounds of the playoffs with a flexor strain, to join them in the bullpen for the World Series.
There’s immense star talent in this Series, and Juan Soto has lived up to expectations. He hit the go-ahead home run in the 10th inning of Game 5 of the ALCS to send the Yankees to the World Series. Through nine postseason games, Soto has a 203 wRC+. The lineup as a whole has been dangerous, even if Aaron Judge hasn’t performed to his usual level yet. Soto and Gleyber Torres have set the tone at the top of the lineup, as they’ve made only three outs combined in the first inning of the Yankees’ nine October games.
If those two continue producing, along with Giancarlo Stanton, and Judge can break through, the Yankees will be a difficult matchup for the Dodgers. — Kirschner
Check back later for World Series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.
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Dodgers player spotlight: Shohei Ohtani, DH
This is the reason Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, for the prospect of playing deep into October for the first time in his career. He has a .934 OPS through two postseason rounds including two home runs and a 1.185 OPS against a Mets team that couldn’t find a consistent answer for him. On a field full of superstars, Ohtani may stand tallest (though not literally, at least compared to Judge). Few players in the sport have the ability to bend the world with their finger, something Ohtani has frequently done over the course of the first summer of his record-setting 10-year, $700 million deal. — Ardaya
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Yankees player spotlight: Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Stanton gets into these zones several times a season where he can carry the Yankees’ offense by himself. He’s currently experiencing one of his patented hot streaks. Through nine postseason games, Stanton has five home runs, including four against the Guardians, which won him the ALCS MVP. Anything in the strike zone, Stanton is barreling. Now he’ll play in his first World Series against a franchise he grew up rooting for while living in Los Angeles as a child.
Bigger picture for Stanton: A possible World Series title (and perhaps an MVP award) would add to his growing Hall of Fame case. If he continues at his current pace, Stanton will finish his career with over 500 home runs. Injuries have slowed him down the past few seasons and rendered him one-dimensional, but reaching the 500-homer mark (without the suspicion of performance-enhancing drugs) has been viewed as a guaranteed pass into Cooperstown. — Kirschner
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Tale of the Tape
Yankees top performers
PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup |
CF |
58 HR, 144 RBI, .701 SLG, 223 OPS+ |
10.8 |
|
Rotation |
RHP |
3.41 ERA, 121 ERA+, 9.4 K/9 |
2 |
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
2.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, 103 Ks |
1.9 |
|
Fielding |
C |
22 CS, 96th percentile framing |
18.9 (dWAR) |
Dodgers top performers
PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup |
DH |
54 HR, 59 SB, .646 SLG, 190 OPS+ |
9.2 |
|
Rotation |
RHP |
3.17 ERA, 127 ERA+, 194 Ks |
3.1 |
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
1.93 ERA, 201 ERA+, 0.943 WHIP |
1.4 |
|
Fielding |
CF/UTIL |
3 OAA, 1 DRS |
1.8 (dWAR) |
Who has the edge?
TEAMS | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | OPS+ |
---|---|---|---|---|
5.03 (3rd) |
3.85 (11th) |
3.62 (6th) |
115 (4th) |
|
5.20 (2nd) |
4.23 (19th) |
3.53 (4th) |
121 (1st) |
Dodgers must-reads
Dave Roberts kept the Dodgers’ train on the tracks and got back to the World Series
With Shohei Ohtani in his first World Series, a chance for greatness on the ‘biggest of stages’
Dodgers finish off Mets to clinch pennant and date with Yankees in World Series
Tommy Edman completes Dodgers roster, captures NLCS MVP: ‘The ultimate professional’
Freddie Freeman begins next chapter after his most arduous season
Why Dodgers’ defense of the NL West is ‘a tick sweeter’
Did Shohei Ohtani just play the single greatest baseball game ever?
Yankees must-reads
How Yankees’ belief in their process, despite doubters, paid off with a World Series berth
Yankees legend John Sterling on what he loves (and hates) about returning from retirement
For Juan Soto, the thrill of the hunt captures a pennant for the Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton isn’t just the Yankees’ playoff savior. He’s their ‘second captain’
Inside Aaron Judge’s swing change that helped propel him to another monster season
Why Aaron Judge called players-only meeting that helped spark Yankees’ September run
Inside the Yankees’ scouting and development of Luis Gil
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(Top image: Aaron Judge: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images; Shohei Ohtani: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)