Dolphins vs. Bills odds, prediction, time: NFL picks, Thursday Night Football bets by model on 38-22 run

Two of the AFC’s top contenders will battle on Thursday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills meet the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Buffalo has dominated the series of late, winning 13 of the last 15 matchups, including one playoff game. The Bills (1-0), who rallied to defeat the Arizona Cardinals, 34-28 last Sunday, are looking to start the season 2-0 for the first time since 2022, when they went 13-3. The Dolphins (1-0), who defeated Jacksonville in the opener, are looking to start 2-0 for the third consecutive season. Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert is out with a chest injury, while fellow back De’Von Achane will play through an ankle injury.

Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Bills vs. Dolphins odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 48, down from an open of 51. Before making any Bills vs. Dolphins picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 184-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Dolphins and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for Dolphins vs. Bills. 

• Dolphins vs. Bills spread: Miami -2.5
• Dolphins vs. Bills over/under: 48 points
• Dolphins vs. Bills money line: Miami -139, Buffalo +117
• BUF: Bills are 10-6 on the road over the past two seasons
• MIA: Dolphins are 14-4 at home since the start of 2022
• Dolphins vs. Bills picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Dolphins

Among the top receiving targets for Miami is fourth-year wide out Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins’ top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and sixth selection overall. Waddle came up big when needed on Sunday against Jacksonville. He not only caught five passes for 109 yards (21.8 average), but also converted four first downs. He has played in 48 career games, making 256 receptions for 3,494 yards (13.6 average) and 18 touchdowns. He had four TDs a year ago.

On defense, linebacker David Long Jr. has picked off where he left off last year. He led Miami with eight stops on Sunday, including seven solo tackles. In 2023, he led the Dolphins with 113 tackles, including 64 solo, with one sack, one forced fumble, one pass breakup and 12 stuffs. He began his career with the Tennessee Titans in 2019. In 68 career games, Long has 351 tackles, including 208 solo, with one sack, three forced fumbles, four interceptions, 25 pass breakups and 40.5 stuffs. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Bills

Quarterback Josh Allen needs eight combined passing and rushing touchdowns to surpass Patrick Mahomes (231) for the most combined passing and rushing touchdowns by a player in his first seven career seasons in NFL history. Allen has 224 career combined touchdowns (169 passing, 55 rushing). He had two passing and two rushing in the win over Arizona on Sunday. He needs five rushing touchdowns to join Cam Newton (75) as the only quarterbacks in league history with at least 60 career rushing touchdowns.

Defensively, Buffalo was led by Terrel Bernard on Sunday. He registered 11 tackles, including 10 solo. The third year player led the Bills in tackling last year as well. In 17 games, he made 143 tackles, including 84 solo, with 6.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, five pass breakups, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries. In 34 career games, he has registered 176 tackles, including 105 solo with 6.5 sacks and 11 stuffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Dolphins picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 52 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in 60% of simulations. You can only get the NFL model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Dolphins, and which side of the spread cashes in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Dolphins spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.