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Donald Trump’s betting lead over Kamala Harris nearly collapses in final week of race

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2 weeks ago

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Donald Trump’s betting lead over Kamala Harris nearly collapses in final week of race

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Former President Donald Trump’s betting lead over Vice President Kamala Harris nearly collapsed in the final full week of the 2024 campaign.

Trump was favored at U.K. bookmaker Bet 365 standing at -188 a week ago whereas his odds as of the dawn of the Monday before Election Day stand at -138. Harris’s odds shortened from +150 to +120 at the bookmaker.

The narrowest spread in the action, which U.S. bookmakers cannot take part in, came from offshore bookmaker BetOnline, which had Trump at +140 and Harris at -120.

The collapse comes as the impact of statement made against Puerto Ricans by a speaker at Trump’s campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York landed in communities in swing states, including in pivotal Pennsylvania.

The final week saw a poll released by the Des Moines Register − a part of the USA TODAY Network − that showed Harris ahead in Iowa, though within the poll’s margin of error. The poll was a head turner as the state had been considered a safe Trump stronghold.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co who conducted the poll for The Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

Presidential betting odds timeline

Presidential betting odds as of 11/4

Bet 365

  • Donald Trump: -138
  • Kamala Harris: +120

via Covers.com

Bovada

  • Donald Trump: -140
  • Kamala Harris: +120

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BetOnline

  • Donald Trump: -140
  • Kamala Harris: +120

Oddschecker

  • Donald Trump: -133
  • Kamala Harris: +150

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How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?

The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The most recent upset came in 2016 when then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose.

The other upset came in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.

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