Shortly ahead of Monday’s iPhone 16 launch event, Bloomberg columnist Mark Gurman delved into the supercycle which many are anticipating following the launch of the newest iteration of the Apple, Inc.‘s AAPL flagship product.
Gurman Dampens Hopes: Expectations of some analysts that the Apple Intelligence will set off a long-awaited super cycle for the new iPhone 16 may not materialize, said Gurman in his latest Power On newsletter. These analysts foresee a rush of upgrades following pent-up demand on the premise that consumers are excited about AI right now, he said.
Providing a “dose of reality,” Gurman said, “a super cycle is simply unlikely this year.”
Macroeconomics may party hinder any potential super cycle, the columnist said, adding that smartphone softness is ongoing in China and other consumers elsewhere are also holding tight to their money.
The bigger issue boils down to the AI technology itself, the Apple specialist said. The new iPhones will look nearly identical to last year’s models except for some minor camera upgrades and other features, he said. These upgrades may not motivate consumers to upgrade, he added.
Thirdly, Apple Intelligence tools may be a big part of Monday’s launch event, but it will increasingly become clear that consumers will have to wait for the best AI features, Gurman said.
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AI Pushbacks: Apple Intelligence isn’t fully baked and the initial version will likely miss many features, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, said Gurman. He also noted that Apple Intelligence won’t be available in the European Union – a key market for Apple and which includes countries such as Italy, France, Spain, Sweden and Germany. It also won’t be ready for China, another crucial overseas market, he added.
Many consumers aren’t well versed with AI and therefore they won’t understand why they would even need Apple Intelligence, the columnist said, adding that it may take several months for the company to explain the benefits of the technology.
The introduction of Apple Intelligence will be slow and staggered, and when the iPhone 16 ships later this month it won’t have the capabilities, Gurman said. He expects the features to start rolling out as part of the iOS 18.1 software updates in October.
The beta version of iOS 18.1 showed features that “summarize notifications and web content, tools to improve writing, a way to remove people or objects from images and automated transcriptions of phone calls, and prioritization of important emails within the Apple Mail app,” Gurman said.
Apple has decided to delay new image-generation features to iOS 18.2, which will release in December, he said. “That includes the Image Playground app and the Genmoji capability, which uses AI to make emoji based on inputted text,” he said.
“This spread-out approach means it’s unlikely for the AI platform to be compelling enough to drive serious upgrades this year,” Gurman said. But Apple should be in a stronger position when it is time for the next iPhone, which is in the fall of 2025, he said.
“Don’t believe the hype about an iPhone 16 super cycle. But you can start believing in one for the iPhone 17 next year,” he added.
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