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Dow Slips Ahead Of Jobs Report—With Anxious Observers Calling It A ‘True Test’ For Stocks

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Dow Slips Ahead Of Jobs Report—With Anxious Observers Calling It A ‘True Test’ For Stocks

Topline

Stocks wavered Thursday, continuing their September stumble ahead of a crucial jobs report coming Friday that market strategists say will test equities’ near all-time high levels amid concerns about the U.S. economy.

Key Facts

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180 points, or 0.4%, by late afternoon, and the benchmark S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, with both largely sector neutral indexes on track to close at their lowest prices since mid-August (the tech-concentrated Nasdaq booked a 0.4% gain).

All three indexes are down noticeably this week, with the Dow down 760 points, or 1.8%, the S&P down 2.5% and the Nasdaq down 3.2% during September’s first three trading sessions.

The slump is the result of “yet another mini growth scare,” Pictet Asset Management strategist Arun Sai told CNBC, as investors grappled with a series of data points which signal potential for a major U.S. economic slowdown, the latest of which was a Thursday morning ADP private employment report which revealed August was the worst month for private employer hiring since early 2021.

But the “true test” for stocks will be Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, who wrote to clients there’s “a lot riding” on the Friday labor market release after worse-than-expected employment report on Aug. 2 that spurred a 1,600-point selloff in the two sessions following the release.

Crucial Quote

“Employment data remains key to determining” the direction of the broader equity market,” concurred UBS strategist Maxwell Grinacoff.

What Is Expected For The Jobs Report?

Consensus economist forecasts call for the government to report job growth of 160,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in August, according to FactSet, an improvement from July’s 114,000 job growth and 4.3% unemployment. Stronger job growth and lower unemployment in August would spur a “potential catch-up” rally for stocks, while a poor jobs report “would likely rekindle growth fears” and downwardly pressure stocks, according to Wilson.

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