Elon Musk says the first Starship launch to Mars will happen in 2 years

Musk, who founded SpaceX in 2002, said that he expects flight rates to “grow exponentially” if both those dates are met. The end goal, he said, would be to construct a “self-sustaining city in about 20 years.”

Musk’s latest remarks mark a slight shift from the timeline he’d initially shared in April.

“Starship will be on Mars within 5 years,” Musk wrote in an X post on March 15. Musk did not specify then if the flight would be crewed or uncrewed.

To be sure, Musk’s plans to colonize Mars have long been a moving target. The mercurial billionaire has repeatedly announced then switched target dates.

In June 2016, Musk told attendees at Vox’s Code Conference that he planned on sending astronauts to Mars in 2024.

“If things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024 with arrival in 2025,” Musk said at the time.

Then, in 2020, Musk said in an interview with Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner that he thought humans could reach Mars in 2026.

“If we get lucky, maybe four years,” Musk told Döpfner, adding that he hoped to send an “uncrewed vehicle there in two years.”

But in March 2022, Musk said he expected humans to land on Mars in 2029 instead.

“If we don’t improve our pace of progress, I’m definitely going to be dead before we go,” Musk told attendees of the Satellite 2020 conference in March 2020.

Representatives for SpaceX didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.