Fantasy basketball: Podziemski, Avdija and other top sleepers to target

In the world of fantasy sports, the term “sleeper” refers to an underrated or underappreciated player who has the potential to exceed expectations and provide significant value.

With the rise of fantasy sports and sports wagering, identifying these hidden gems has become as challenging as hitting a half-court shot (unless you’re Stephen Curry). Information is more accessible than ever, with analysts, podcasts and social media providing a constant stream of data and predictions. As a result, many sleepers are no longer snoozing.

Discovering a true sleeper today requires more than just knowledge — it demands a bit of speculation and luck. You need to look at player performance trends, preseason games and even the smallest whispers from training camps.

In addition to leveraging the potential gems listed below, be sure to also check out our staff’s roundtable on sleepers, breakouts, and busts, where I nominate Trey Murphy III as a notable “3-and-D” sleeper.

For the following list of notable sleepers, the focus is only on players found outside of the top 100 picks on average in ESPN live draft results.

Jabari Smith, PF/C, Houston Rockets

Younger players often have lower ADPs (average draft position) due to uncertainty, but the most common timing for breakout campaigns is in those first few seasons of a budding career. Smith’s profile doesn’t scream breakout, but he has flashed improvements as a floor spacer while bringing strong defensive rates to the court. Given Smith’s special two-way skill set, don’t be surprised if Ime Udoka empowers Smith more than ever this season.

Deni Avdija, SF/PF, Portland Trail Blazers

At just 23, Avdija claims a polished floor game that saw him set career bests in playmaking, scoring and rebounding in his final season with the Wizards. Positioned for major minutes on a Portland team still in transition from the Damian Lillard era, Avdija could be a major part of the next phase for the franchise.

Keyonte George, PG/SG, and Taylor Hendricks, PF, Utah Jazz

Given how many high-usage, heliocentric stars we can identify in the league, sourcing assists in later rounds can prove challenging. Assisting nearly a quarter of all made field goals for the Jazz while on the court as a rookie, George’s precedent for playmaking suggests a potential breakout could unfold in Utah this fall. Beyond his pick-and-roll prowess, George averaged nearly 15 points on respectable volume from deep as a rookie.

Another Jazz rookie from last season, Hendricks flashed impressive defensive and positional versatility for the team. With tons of minutes at the wing available in Salt Lake City, Hendricks is almost sure to outproduce his draft price.

Brandin Podziemski, SG, and De’Anthony Melton, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors

“Air Podz” averaged 5.8 rebounds during his rookie season, which put Podziemski in the 98th percentile among NBA guards. In addition to atypical rebounding volume, Podziemski could erupt as a shooter and scorer in the wake of Klay Thompson‘s departure from the rotation. Offseason buzz suggests the team is ready to feature the second-year guard.

Steve Kerr’s shot-happy system could bode well for Melton’s offensive profile, while the team is also likely to unleash him in the passing lanes on defense in a similar fashion to how Donte DiVincenzo and Gary Payton II thrived in this system. It’s quite possible, if not likely, Melton averages more than two made 3-pointers and two combined blocks and steals in this fantasy-friendly setup.

Herbert Jones, SF/PF, New Orleans Pelicans

Don’t get stuck on the sluggish scoring profile; Jones claims one of the league’s purest “3-and-D” profiles. He posted an impressive 63% effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot threes last season while finishing among the most versatile and effective defenders in the game. He finished in the 96th percentile in the league in steal percentage and in the 80th in block percentage.

With the Pelicans leaning on a small-ball identity, Jones is likely to set career highs in minutes and opportunities.

Cameron Johnson, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets

We witnessed Mikal Bridges enjoy a massive surge in scoring production when he joined the Nets in the blockbuster Kevin Durant deal with the Phoenix Suns. Could Johnson’s turn be next?

With the team moving Bridges to another borough over the summer, Johnson is due for a rewarding rise in offensive opportunities. The potential for Johnson to set career bests in scoring and shooting volume is quite high, while his draft price remains reasonable.

Marcus Smart, PG/SG, and Vince Williams Jr., PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies

It’s rare that the fantasy market overlooks a former Defensive Player of the Year, but here we are. Smart’s 2023-24 season was plagued by injuries, so it’s understandable that he has slipped deeper into drafts. With enough passing chops to help run second units and some of the best defensive rates at his position, Smart could be a savvy late-round get.

The unfortunate injury to GG Jackson II probably leads to a massive role for Williams in Memphis to open the season. Word from the beat is that Williams could be among the team leaders in minutes. Last season’s eroded roster afforded Williams a real chance to grow as a playmaker and complementary scorer, roles he’ll probably revive on a restocked Grizzlies rotation.