Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Will J.K. Dobbins return to his early-season form?

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed has averaged just 3.5 targets over the last two games, and his route participation (61%) dropped below Romeo Doubs (93%) and Christian Watson (79%) last week. He’s also gained zero yards rushing over the past three games. Reed remains the WR14 in fantasy points per game this season, but he’s the WR53 in expected fantasy points, just barely ahead of now-healthy teammate Dontayvion Wicks (WR56). Reed ranks 42nd in targets (41) and 50th in target share (17.6%). He’s seen just four targets inside the red zone this season.

Green Bay’s pass catchers are healthier than ever, but Jordan Love’s status for Week 9 is in question after he suffered a groin injury last game (the Packers may be more inclined to rest him with an upcoming Week 10 bye). Green Bay recorded a staggering -18% dropback rate over expected during two games with Malik Willis starting earlier this year, and he attempted just five passes over two quarters last week.

Reed is a great player who’s recorded the second-best Passer Rating (141.0) when targeted this season, and he gets a salivating matchup against a Lions defense this week allowing by far the most fantasy points to the slot. He’ll undoubtedly post more spike weeks this year.

But a lack of volume (and the possibility of Love missing another game) makes Reed more of a mid-low WR2 moving forward.

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J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

Dobbins turned 24 opportunities into just 68 yards against a vulnerable Saints defense last week. Javonte Williams scored his only two touchdowns of the season the previous week against New Orleans. Any back can have a subpar game, but there’s concern Dobbins is wearing down coming off Achilles surgery. He got 9.9 YPC and led the league in missed tackles forced per attempt over the first two weeks (against the Panthers and Raiders), but he’s managed a lowly 3.1 YPC while ranking 45th in MTF/att over five games since.

Dobbins wouldn’t be the first RB to flash for a couple of games returning from Achilles surgery only to fade afterward (James Robinson was the latest example). But that’s pure speculation, and Dobbins’ role has remained elite; he saw season-highs in snap share (81%) and targets (seven) last week. Kimani Vidal does loom as an alternative now though.

Moreover, Justin Herbert is third in pass attempts since L.A.’s bye after being one of the league’s run-heaviest teams before. The volume has been nice, but there’s some concern given Dobbins’ extreme drop in efficiency coming off major surgery, a shift in L.A.’s offensive philosophy and a tougher upcoming schedule.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Waddle disappointed during Tua Tagovailoa’s return last week, finishing as the WR57 while committing a bad drop downfield in a favorable matchup with Tyreek Hill banged up. While one game is meaningless, Waddle now sits with a lowly 15% target share over 100 pass attempts from Tagovailoa this season; Hill sports a 28% target share, and De’Von Achane’s is also higher at 19%.

That said, there’s reason for optimism. Miami put up a season-high 27 points during Tagovailoa’s return last week, when the Dolphins’ neutral pass rate went from worst to nearly first. Waddle had 122 targets and 1,380 receiving yards over his previous 17 games with Tagovailoa before last week, and there’s also contingency upside should Hill go down.

Still, Miami’s offense hasn’t looked nearly as explosive this season even with Tagovailoa, and Achane’s emergence in the passing game will continue to hurt Waddle’s volume. Waddle will be fine and remains a top-25 WR, but there’s obvious concern for those who drafted him expecting more in 2024.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud appeared on the Panic Meter last week, and things have only gotten worse. He finished as the QB26 in a highly favorable home matchup and lost Stefon Diggs for the season. Stroud has now finished as a top-five fantasy QB just twice during his career, with the last time coming back in Week 12 last season.

This isn’t necessarily Stroud’s fault, as Houston’s offensive line and injuries have contributed greatly. Stroud’s gotten 8.0 YPA and averaged 270.4 passing yards in games with Nico Collins during his career, but those numbers fall to 6.8 and 229.8 with Collins off the field (h/t RotoViz). Diggs is now out for the year with an ACL tear, and Tank Dell continues to look like a different player returning from a broken leg; Dell commanded a season-low 11.1% target share last week despite Collins and Diggs being out. Dell ranks #86 in yards per route run (1.10) this season.

Stroud gets a tough matchup Thursday night against a Jets secondary allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (180.0), so he belongs on fantasy benches. Collins’ possible return in Week 10 will certainly help (and the schedule gets more favorable), but Stroud is the QB22 this season, so his fantasy managers may already be in the coping corner.