Fantasy Football Trade Desk: Should you buy Brandon Aiyuk?

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.

Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.

As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.

At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.

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Buy The Dip

As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.

Brandon Aiyuk – WR, San Francisco 49ers
Given that Aiyuk just got thoroughly outplayed by Jauan Jennings with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out, the public narrative on Aiyuk is at a real nadir. There are already people mad at him for the off-season holdout, so plenty of people are just “done with him” and it shows in the trades he’s been involved in this week. In some Yahoo leagues, Aiyuk was traded straight up for an injured Kenneth Walker. He was traded straight up for DJ Moore. He was traded for a package of Jake Ferguson and Zay Flowers. These are opportunities we should jump at.

Even with Jennings shining last week, Aiyuk ran a route on 89% of dropbacks. He saw 33% of the targets and 29% of the air yards, but he had just a 60% catchable target rate while Jennings had a 100% mark. With all of the other weapons out, the Rams focused their attention on Aiyuk, and they should have. That left much easier passes open to Jennings, so Aiyuk could actually benefit from the other options receiving coming back. We’ve seen him eat with a fully healthy 49ers offense, so there’s no reason not to expect him to do it again.

In Weeks 1 and 2 when Deebo and Kittle were healthy, Aiyuk still ran routes on 87% of dropbacks and had an 80% catchable target rate. Yes, he saw only 14% of the team’s targets, but he’s on the field and running routes and we know he’s both good at football and has the trust of his team and quarterback. The results are going to come. See if you can take advantage of the anger towards him.

Garrett Wilson – WR, New York Jets
We know Garrett Wilson is a good football player. The talk coming into the season was that he had the talent to finish as WR1 overall; however, through three weeks, Wilson is averaging 9.7 points per game in half-PPR formats, which makes him the WR34. There are concerns about how run-heavy the Jets offense is and how much Aaron Rodgers loves throwing to Allen Lazard, but Wilson still leads the team with 97% route participation and 29% target share. However, he sees the least catchable targets on the team because he is often double-covered, making throws to him vastly more difficult.

The good news is that Mike Williams continues to get healthier, which will force defensive attention away from Wilson, and we should expect Wilson and Aaron Rodgers to get on the same page as they continue to play together more often. The role here is great, and the Jets offense should find its rhythm in the coming weeks, which makes me feel good about Wilson maintaining WR1 value. That may not seem like a bold statement to you, but this week in Yahoo leagues Wilson was traded straight up for Zach Charbonnet, traded straight up for Tee Higgins, and traded for a package of D’Andre Swift and Quentin Johnston. It seems like some fantasy managers are panicking about Wilson’s value, so it’s worth exploring if that’s the case in your league.

Mark Andrews – TE, Baltimore Ravens
Before you get angry, this is 100% about the market right now.

Yes, Andrews played just 35% of the snaps on Sunday and saw just one target, but it wasn’t like he was replaced by Isaiah Likely. The Ravens felt that they had an advantage in running the ball against the Cowboys and went with lots of heavy formations. John Harbaugh mentioned that the Ravens gameplan will change week-to-week, which means Andrews will not be immune from being scripted out of the game in certain weeks.

That’s not news we like to hear, but I think this is more about Andrews slowly making his way back from off-season tightrope surgery. He’s 28-years-old. He’s been a top-five tight end for years now. I don’t believe he suddenly forgot how to play football. My recommendation here is based on my belief that Andrews will have a much better second half of the season and also that you can
get Andrews for basically nothing now and stash him on your bench.

If you look at who Andrews was traded for yesterday in Yahoo leagues, he was traded STRAIGHT UP for Ray-Ray McCloud. He was traded straight up for Mike Gesicki and also traded straight up for Austin Ekeler. That is an all-time low trade value. I’m not saying you HAVE TO acquire Andrews in your league, but if you happen to be in one where the fantasy manager would give you Andrews for a player like Gesicki or McCloud, you should absolutely jump at that chance.

Buy High, Sell Higher

At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.

Aaron Jones – RB, Minnesota Vikings
OK, so Sam Darnold is a good quarterback, and this Vikings offense is tremendously well-coached and going to be good for most of the year. That means Aaron Jones should sustain value given his role in this offense. He handled a season-high 68% of the rushing attempts in Week 3 and has played over 60% of the overall snaps two weeks in a row. However, he’s also out there running routes with a 51% route participation rate on the season and a 19% target share.

If you go by Fantasy Life’s Utilization score, Jones is at an 8.4 this season. He’s getting elite usage in an offense that is humming right now and should get Jordan Addison back soon. That’s somebody you want to have on your team and somebody you may be able to get for below their true value given Jones’ past injury history. In Yahoo leagues this week, he was traded straight up for Calvin Ridley and also traded straight up for Zay Flowers. He was traded for a package of George Pickens and Zach Charbonnet and traded for a package of Cam Akers and Jauan Jennings. I know “Not in my league” but the point is that it’s happening in a handful of leagues, so it’s worth exploring whether you can get Jones on your roster in your league.

Run a Process

If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – WR, Miami Dolphins
I had both Hill and Waddle in this article last week, so you can click here to read my full thoughts on their situation, but what we just saw on Sunday was brutal. I know Tua claims he’s planning to come back, but we have no idea when that will happen or if he even will. It’s not just his job at stake but his life, so he’s liable to take his time and make the most careful decision he can. If he’s ready in six weeks but the Dolphins have gone 1-5 in that time, is he really going to come back? At this point, I think it’s fair to see what you can get in a trade for Hill, who I would still start as a WR2, and Waddle, who I would not start at all right now.

In Yahoo leagues this week, Hill was traded straight up for Chris Godwin, which I would do, traded for a package of Chris Olave and Khalil Shakir, which I would do in a heartbeat, and traded for a package of Drake London and Shakir, which I would also do.

Jaylen Waddle was traded straight up for Jayden Reed, which I would jump at. He was traded for a package of Jameson Williams and Brock Bowers, which you should run to do, and he was traded with Travis Etienne for CeeDee Lamb. Wait. What!? The point is, there are leagues where people are still giving you good value for Waddle and Hill, so you should explore the markets.

Chuba Hubbard – RB, Carolina Panthers
With Andy Dalton under center, the Panthers offense looked great, and Hubbard exploded for 25.5 fantasy points. That has caused renewed optimism for the Panthers’ skill position players, but I think there is cause for concern with Hubbard moving forward. For one, Mile Sanders took all of the rushes inside the five-yard line and also played on 100% of the long down and distance snaps and two-minute drill snaps. So Hubbard is already losing passing down work to Sanders, and how often will the Panthers have this kind of leading gamescript? Another concern is that Jonathan Brooks, the Panthers’ 2^nd round draft pick is eligible to be activated from the IR in Week 5 and while he may not immediately take over the starting role, he is going to build up to the lead share in this backfield. That means the time is now to explore moving on from Hubbard but you shouldn’t feel forced to get him off your team.

This week, he was traded straight up for Najee Harris, and I’d rather have Harris. He was traded with Christian Watson for Brandon Aiyuk, which is also a trade I would make, and he was traded straight up for Brock Bowers, which I would also do if I needed a tight end.

Jauan Jennings – WR, San Franciso 49ers
Look, this one is obvious and most fantasy managers aren’t going to trade for Jennings, but if you have him on your team, it would be malpractice to not at least try to unload him to the Deebo Samuel manager or somebody who is still struggling to replace Cooper Kupp or A.J. Brown. Last week with Deebo and George Kittle out, Jennings had a 40% target share and saw 47% of the 49ers’ air yards en route to a monster day. Now, Kittle, Deebo, and Christian McCaffrey could all be out in Week 4 as well, which may entice somebody to trade for Jennings, even if they know he won’t duplicate last week. In one Yahoo league, somebody packaged Jennings and an injured Kenneth Walker for Chris Godwin. That’s the type of deal you might be able to use Jennings to get across the finish line this week.

Zach Charbonnet – RB, Seattle Seahawks
I had Charbonnet on here last week, and I’m going to keep him on here because we know that his time as a starter is fleeting. Yes, Kenneth Walker could miss another couple of weeks, so you shouldn’t feel forced to get rid of Charbonnet, but he was likely drafted as a bench player for you, so if you can use him to get back a starter at a position you’re weaker at, you need to take that opportunity.

Charbonnet is getting elite usage, playing on 90% of the snaps over the last two weeks while taking 78% of the rush attempts and also running a route on 76% of dropbacks. That got him a 9.1 Utilization score. The role here is incredible, but it’s the role that’s propping up Charbonnet. He looks fine but not overly dynamic. He is not going to hold off Walker when Walker is healthy, and the best-case scenario is that the two of them create some muddled mess of split carries in the backfield that just hurts both of their fantasy value. Since we know this is a Cinderella situation where Charbonnet will turn into a pumpkin at some point, you should at least explore moving him.

On Tuesday, in Yahoo leagues, he was traded straight up for David Montgomery, traded straight up for Diontae Johnson, traded straight up for Zay Flowers, traded straight up for Tee Higgins, and traded with Rachaad White for Brandon Aiyuk. You can get a lot of value if you look to unload Charbonnet now.

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Hold

This one is self-explanatory. Sometimes you see a player getting recommended in lots of trade articles, but you can actually get consistent value out of that player for the rest of the season and you should just hold them.

Cam Akers – RB, Houston Texans
This is 100% predicated on Joe Mixon missing another week, as reports are that he was week-to-week, which means a return in Week 4 is not guaranteed. Obviously, if Mixon returns, you can move on from Akers. However, Akers had a better role in Week 3 than people realize because the Texans were manhandled by the Vikings and the gamescript got out of whack immediately. In that game, Akers played on 43% of the total snaps but had 82% of the rushing attempts and 67% of the short down-and-distance snaps. He did lose passing down work to Dare Ogunbowale, so if the Texans are trailing that could happen again, but we have faith in the Texans offense to get right in Week 4, which could put Akers in a good spot – if he starts.

Buy a Call

When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price – a strike price – if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.

Bucky Irving – RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
This is the third week I’ve had Irving on here, but it’s probably going to take more to buy him now that his head coach said he needs to get more touches going forward. Yes, the Bucs have already said they need to get Bucky more touches, which means his fantasy value is increasing in most leagues; however, he has also been traded for Nick Chubb and traded for Mike Gesicki in Yahoo leagues this week, so there are still leagues where he is not properly valued, in my opinion. Irving only played 32% of the snaps for Tampa Bay this past week because Rachaad White is far more involved in the passing game; yet, Irving also took 56% of the carries, which is the first time he’s had more carries than White all season. Irving has also looked like the better runner, averaging 6.2 yards on his 25 carries with White averaging 2.1 yards on his 31 rushes. We have seen White be an inefficient rusher for a few years now, so this is no surprise. White is never going to be fully phased out because of his passing game skills, but if Irving continues to take more rushing away from him and also takes over the short yardage and red zone work then he could emerge as an every-week FLEX player who will have RB2 value in plus matchups.

Romeo Doubs – WR, Green Bay Packers
We might get Jordan Love back this week, and that’s great news for the Packers’ pass-catchers. Malik Willis has been better than anybody expected as the starting quarterback over the last two weeks, but he is not pushing the ball downfield the way that Love will. That’s good news for Doubs, who runs the most routes of any Packers wide receiver. Through three weeks, Doubs has run a route on 90% of dropbacks and is second to Christian Watson with a 14.4 aDOT. The team is using both Watson and Doubs almost every snap on the perimeter and bringing in Jayden Reed from the slot when they go to three-wide sets. That’s not a formula that has worked with Malik Willis under center, but I believe it will with Jordan Love slinging the ball around. Now, there are still a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, so Doubs won’t be a consistent fantasy scorer, but I think he’ll have enough good weeks to be a value on your roster.

Roschon Johnson – RB, Chicago Bears
Johnson made his season debut last week after recovering from a toe injury and with Travis Homer out, Johnson immediately played on 38% of the snaps, took 29% of the rushes, and ran a route on 38% of dropbacks. He also led the Bears in rushing as D’Andre Swift continued to struggle mightily to get anything going on the ground. What’s most interesting is also that Johnson seemed to operate as the primary passing down back, playing on 72% of the long down-and-distance snaps and taking 80% of the snaps in the two-minute offense. So Johnson is already the passing down back but has a chance to emerge with at least a share of the rushes as well. This Bears offense is a mess right now, but if they are ever able to figure out a clear and effective plan of attack, that role could be a valuable one for Johnson.

Straight Sell

Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.

D’Andre Swift- RB, Chicago Bears
Well, I was super wrong on D’Andre Swift last week. Shame on me for thinking the Bears would find success on the ground against a Colts defense that had given up 475 rushing yards in two games and was without DeForest Buckner. Through three weeks, Swift is averaging 5.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues, which makes him RB42. He had been dominating rush attempts in the first two weeks, but with Roschon Johnson back in Week 3, Swift played on just 52% of the snaps and took just 46% of the carries for the Bears. He also had his lowest route participation rate of the season. With Kahlil Herbert also getting on the field, this has become a muddled mess, and the Bears offense as a whole looks like it has no identity under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The Colts had given up 475 yards rushing in TWO GAMES coming into Sunday, but the Bears were unable to move the ball on the ground and wound up throwing the ball over 50 times.

Swift has some solid matchups coming up, so maybe you wait for one good one and trade him away, but this week in Yahoo leagues he has been traded straight up for Garrett Wilson (that’s not a joke), Terry McLaurin twice, traded with Keenan Allen for Mike Evans, and traded with Mark Andrews for Travis Kelce. Those are all moves I would make.