Fantasy Football Week 12 Fades: Is a Matthew Stafford trap game on the horizon?

Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 12.

Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.

QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

It’s really difficult to imagine fading a fantasy quarterback throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on any given week — especially in what could be a high-scoring matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with plenty of offensive firepower on both sidelines.

However, this feels like the ultimate trap game … in particular for Rams QB Matthew Stafford.

Stafford is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season in Week 11, going 18-of-27 for 295 passing yards and 4 TDs against the New England Patriots, resulting in 27.8 fantasy points as the overall QB5 on the week. While it would appear that a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles could be intriguing at first glance, it bears repeating that this Eagles secondary is not the same as it was last year.

The unit that ranked top-three in net passing yards per game (255.7) and second-most passing TDs all season (38) is no more; it’s the Reed Blankenship, Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell show now. Joining Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the secondary, this group of defensive backs has been massively underrated, allowing the second-fewest pass yards per game (172.2), a league-low 5.0 yards per pass attempt and tied for the third-fewest passing touchdowns all season (9).

Heat check 🔥 Unless you’re in a two-QB or Superflex league, Stafford is better left on fantasy benches this week, even despite an intriguing 49.5-point projected total from oddsmakers this week.

RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard has had a standout season in 2024 and was handsomely rewarded for his production (on one of the league’s worst offenses, mind you) with a nice, big contract extension. He showed he was worth it in the game immediately following, too, posting 169 scrimmage yards and a score in Week 10 ahead of their bye.

Despite his recent dominance this season, there are two glaring reasons to suspect Hubbard won’t keep up the path of production. The first of those reasons is the matchup; this week, the Panthers will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been among the most prolific run defenses this year, holding opposing RBs to a league-low 3.11 yards per carry and giving up a league-low 522 rushing yards over 10 games. Their 12.82 fantasy points per game allowed to the position ranks dead last in the league.

Paired with the difficult matchup on deck is the planned debut for second-round rookie RB Jonathon Brooks, who will play in his first NFL game coming off a torn ACL which has held him out so far this year. It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll hold a significant role in Week 12, but any chunk of the pie he gets is a piece off Hubbard’s plate.

Heat check 🔥 You’ll likely be in a position where you need to start Hubbard given the six teams that are on a bye this week. However, it’s best to expect something closer to an RB3/RB4 performance from him, rather than his standard top-12 finish, even if Brooks does handle a minimal role.

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RB D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have undergone a significant shift over the past two weeks, firing former OC Shane Waldron and promoting passing coordinator Thomas Brown to call plays in the meantime. In Brown’s first game calling plays, the offense managed its highest yardage total (391) since October 6’s win over the Carolina Panthers — that’s the good news. Usually, that would mean exciting things for the run game, but there’s another side to that coin (the bad news).

In Week 12, the Bears will get a matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, a matchup that has ranked among the league’s most stifling this season. The Vikings defense is allowing the second-lowest YPC average (3.6), second-fewest rush yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and the third-lowest explosive run rate (9.3%) this season, giving up the second-least fantasy points per game to opposing RBs (14.54).

Another interesting tidbit worth noting in terms of Swift’s upside in the week to come is an increase in workload for backup RB Roschon Johnson last week. He saw a season-high offensive snap rate of 42% and earned a season-high 11 touches. The fact that this bump in usage coincided with the coaching shift is intriguing. Plus Swift is dealing with a groin injury that forced him out of practice Wednesday, though HC Matt Eberflus says he’s hopeful he’ll play.

Heat check 🔥 Swift should be started in most leagues, barring much better options, as he’s exhibited a fairly safe floor dating back to Week 4, with 10+ fantasy points in all but one game since then. However, a challenging matchup paired with an uptick in work for Johnson last week makes Swift less appealing than usual.

WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

We’re fading the passer this week, so why not fade his top target?

As noted above, the Philadelphia Eagles have had a sneaky-good passing defense since Cooper DeJean took over a near-full-time role in Week 6. Though he plays primarily slot corner, his presence has virtually transformed the secondary into a shutdown unit.

Since Week 6, here’s a look at the performance of the Eagles’ secondary against targets to WRs lined up out wide and where it ranks among other defenses per Next Gen Stats:

• 36.8% passing success rate (league-low)

• 45.4 NFL passer rating (league-low)

• 45.6% completion rate (league-low)

• -0.15 EPA per dropback (second-lowest)

• 273 yards (third-fewest)

The Eagles’ secondary is also the only team to not allow a single touchdown to WRs lined up out wide in that span. Given that Nacua primarily plays along the boundary (74% snap rate this season) while teammate Cooper Kupp mans the slot at a 69% snap rate, there are realistic concerns that he could have an inefficient day.

Heat check 🔥 Under no circumstances do you bench Nacua; he’s a star with absurd play strength and does benefit from lining up alongside Kupp, which could help split coverage against this stingy Eagles’ secondary. However, if this is the week you need a monster game, brace yourself for a potential disappointment.

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

The DeVonta Smith experience has had its ups and downs in the 2024 season; he’s averaging a career-high 74.5% catch rate with career-high slot usage (52.9% compared to his previous career-high of 31.1%). While that seems to have raised his overall floor for fantasy, having managed 64 or more receiving yards in six of nine games this year, it does seem as though his upside has been capped, yet to surpass the 90-receiving yard mark in any given game.

In Week 12, he’ll face the Los Angeles Rams in a sneakily challenging matchup against WRs lined up in the slot, which could mean another so-so performance for fantasy managers. Dating back to Week 6, the Rams are allowing a league-low 29% success rate on targets to WRs per NFL Next Gen Stats, giving up a 41.4 NFL passer rating (45.2% completion rate) and a ridiculous 1:5 TD:INT ratio on such plays.

Heat check 🔥 As I’ve noted a few times in this article, this feels like more of a trap game for fantasy managers than it does the barn-burner we’re all hoping for given the firepower of these respective offenses. Given Smith’s lack of ceiling this year paired with a challenging matchup, Smith isn’t a must-start in Week 12 if you have better options. If you do have to start him on a week full of byes, do so with tempered expectations.

TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

There was a point earlier this season (right around Weeks 4-8) where many suspected they’d found the answer to their tight end woes in second-year Packer Tucker Kraft. Unfortunately, his level of consistency as a red-zone weapon has tapered off in recent weeks, failing to produce a single catch in Week 11 coming off Green Bay’s bye. Just in case you were holding out hope for a bounce-back performance, however, it doesn’t seem likely to come up against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, even if they do layup some designed touches for him one week out from his goose egg.

The 49ers have been a challenging matchup for opposing tight ends this season, failing to allow a single TE more than 10 fantasy points in a single matchup, giving up the second-lowest Y/A average on targets to the position in the league (5.5), only behind the Houston Texans. Their 44.6% success rate on pass attempts targeting TEs ranks fourth-lowest in the league, per Next Gen Stats, allowing just 356 yards (fourth-fewest) and 2 TDs (tied for ninth-fewest) to the position all season.

Heat check 🔥 There’s an expectation for a certain level of volatility every time you roll out a Packers pass catcher, but given the Niners’ strengths over the middle of the field and history of shutting down more-than-capable TEs this season, Kraft is better left on your bench. Consider a streaming option like rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders, who has a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this week.