Fantasy Football: Week 12 predictions to count on

The Yahoo team delivers their most steadfast predictions for Week 12.

Ascension continues for Broncos rookie quarterback

It’s Week 12 and Bo Nix might be the most trustworthy rookie quarterback in the league.

Since Week 5, Nix has scored a minimum of 14 fantasy points in every game, finished inside the top 12 five times and thrown just two interceptions. Combine the much-improved passing with his rushing upside and you have an incredibly stable quarterback with high upside and limited risk. Nix has thrived in a wide range of matchups, from dominating layup defenses like Carolina to delivering a solid performance in tough matchups like Kansas City. He’s simply getting it done.

This week, he faces a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Nix has legitimate overall QB1 upside this week. — Tera Roberts

Saddle up Bucky Irving for a juicy matchup

Irving finds himself in a great matchup as he comes out of his bye week. He’ll take on a Giants defense that allows the most rushing yards per play this season, according to NFL Pro. But it gets even better because Irving and the Bucs are five-point favorites against the Tommy DeVito-led Giants offense. There’s a good chance the Bucs play with a lead in the second half which could lead to even more rush attempts for Irving.

The Giants also allow the third most explosive runs of 10+ yards this season. This matters because Irving is one of the most dynamic backs in the NFL. He’s averaging nearly six yards per touch this season and generating an explosive play on 11% of his touches, which is similar to Saquon Barkley’s explosive play rate of 12%. Irving is a must-start this week and has the upside to finish as a top-five back. — Sal Vetri

Justin Herbert could be one of Week 12’s top-scoring QBs

First of all, I must say that Sal simply beat me to Bucky Irving, who is going to do such terrible things to the Giants defense. But hey, I’m a professional. Irving isn’t the only player I’m bullish on this week.

Justin Herbert is playing at an undeniably elite level and he is about to cook the Ravens D, which has of course allowed the most passing yards per game this season (284.5). In fact, an overall QB1 finish is definitely in play for Herbert. He’s thrown only one interception on the year and has produced career-best rates in terms of yards per attempt (7.9) and per completion (12.4). Ladd McConkey has been a ridiculous problem for opposing defenses to solve and no team can keep Quentin Johnston out of the end zone.

There’s actually a decent chance that Monday night’s game delivers the two highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks of Week 12, so let’s hope you have plenty of Ravens and Bolts in the active lineup. — Andy Behrens

Brian Robinson Jr. returns to the top 10

Robinson saw 17 opportunities during his return last week, including a goal-line score. He ranks top 10 in rushing TDs (seven) this season despite missing three games thanks to heavy red-zone work. Robinson is off the injury report this week, so hopefully he’s closer to 100%.

The Cowboys have been gashed for NFL highs in EPA/rush and rushing touchdowns while allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs. Washington has this week’s second-highest implied team total (28.5 points) and is a double-digit home favorite against a reeling Cowboys team, so game script should be highly favorable. Robinson has averaged 5.5 YPC at home this season, so he finishes as a top-10 back this week. — Dalton Del Don

If Bo Nix is going to have a big game, then chances are high for his WR1, too

As Tera highlighted above, Bo Nix has played great football of late. The stats aren’t lying; he’s executing a well-designed offense at a high level. But he’s really only bringing one player along for the ride from a fantasy perspective.

Since Week 8, Cortland Sutton is the only Broncos player to run a route on more than 60% of Nix’s dropbacks. He’s dominating the volume with a 29% target share and 46% air yard share. Sutton is entrenched as the X-receiver in this offense and he’s always been a strong fit for what Sean Payton wants out of that position. Now, he’s operating with a quarterback who has a substantial overlap with his skills beyond the right coverage receptions. Sutton gets a matchup with a Raiders defense that allows the type of vertical targets on which Nix and Sutton have developed some serious chemistry. With so many proven receivers on bye, Sutton is a locked-in top-15 option. — Matt Harmon

Put the penguin on ice in Week 12

I know the vibes are usually positive in this column, but you also need to know who to bench (and maybe who to cut). Jaylen Waddle managers need to have a conversation.

He’s stuck on one touchdown all year and hasn’t seen 60 yards since Opening Day. When does a bad start become a bad season? We’re almost to Thanksgiving, gamers. The Patriots secondary is competitive and it’s clear the Dolphins are looking more to manage Tua Tagovailoa these days, not utilize him as a deep-throwing maestro. Waddle has a capped upside entering Week 12 and not only should you bench him, but he’s a justified cut in some smaller leagues. — Scott Pianowski