Unemployment statistics for Yakima County and Washington as a whole have seen a stark change between 2023 and this year, from record-low unemployment to higher numbers of people without jobs.
But overall labor market trends for the U.S., state and region remain the same, as the shift from retiring Baby Boomers to Generation Z and Millennial workers plays out across numerous industries.
Both situations — along with the benefits of hiring older employees, apprenticeships and even those with past addiction issues and criminal justice records — were discussed Tuesday at the Yakima Workforce Conference at the Yakima Convention and Event Center.
Joshua LaFon, vice president of client services at the Lightcast global labor market analytics company, told more than 120 attendees at Tuesday’s event about the coming employee shortage facing the U.S. and other nations.
LaFon shared statistics from the Moscow, Idaho-based organization that show several national trends which existed before the pandemic: the rapid retirement of Baby Boomer generation workers, the decline in U.S. labor force participation as the boomers retired and millennials entered the job market; and the aging of the U.S. population in general.
By 2034, adults aged 65-plus will outnumber children (younger than) 18 for the first time in U.S. history, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections.
On top of this demographics trend, the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, sending participation in the U.S. workforce plummeting.
“The labor force participation rate took a serious hit in 2020 and has not recovered since,” LaFon said. “The pandemic pushed an accelerator pedal down on trends that were already coming. People have left the labor force faster than we thought.”
Yakima’s labor force participation rate has declined, too, since 2019, but remains higher than the nation and state level, he added. Yakima County had a roughly 74% labor-force participation in 2019 and that level fell to 66% in June 2024. However, the U.S. (63%) and Washington (64%) rates were lower.
The county also had a higher population growth rate (1.3%) than both Washington (1.1%) and the U.S. (0.6%) in 2022, the most recent statistics available, LaFon said.
While long-term population growth is projected to be lower, Yakima County’s rate is expected to remain above state and national levels through 2032.
Eight straight months of rising unemployment
Amid the overall trends in workforce participation and available workers, national, state and local economic conditions continue to fluctuate.
For much of 2023, Yakima County recorded its best year-over-year unemployment rates, with a streak of seven straight record low monthly jobless levels beginning that April.
One year later, the unemployment rates have been higher and several areas of the Yakima County economy have fewer jobs, according to statistics released this week by the state’s Employment Security Department.
September’s 4.9% unemployment rate, while the county’s lowest in 2024, is more than half a percentage point above the 4.3% jobless rate seen in September 2023.
It is the eighth straight month that jobless rates in Yakima County have increased compared to 2023, regional Labor Economist Don Meseck reported.
He attributed the higher unemployment rates to fewer jobs in several non-agricultural sectors — including a loss of manufacturing jobs that began more than a year ago.
“Year over year, manufacturing employment in Yakima County has decreased for 15 months, from July 2023 through September 2024,” Meseck said.
There were 8,000 manufacturing jobs in Yakima County this September, a loss of 600 jobs or 7% from the 8,600 that were observed one year ago.
Statewide, manufacturing employment increased or was stable for nearly three years, a 34-month span from October 2021 through July of this year. But in August and September, the number of manufacturing jobs began contracting across Washington, Meseck reported.
Another area with fewer jobs in Yakima County is the construction industry, with an eight-month streak of job loss over the previous year that mirrors the span of rising unemployment rates.
Construction jobs were 2.1% lower between September 2023 (4,800 jobs) and this past month (4,700 jobs).
“Construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and utilities, and food services provided fewer jobs this September than in September 2023 — certainly not encouraging economic news,” Meseck added.
Some areas of Yakima County’s economy did see job expansion during the past year, he reported, including retail trade, professional and business services, and private education and health services.
Yakima County’s September 2024 jobless rate ranked 35th among the state’s 39 counties, with its 4.9% rate tied with Pacific County in southwest Washington. It was worse than all but Grays Harbor (5.5%) and Wahkiakum (5.6%) counties, also in the southwest corner of the state, and Ferry County (6.2%) along the Canadian border. Asotin and San Juan counties, both at 2.9%, had the lowest unemployment.
For a complete monthly economic report for Washington state, visit esd.wa.gov/labormarketinfo/monthly-employment-report.
