Final jobs report before election may paint murky picture of economy

The upcoming final jobs report before the November presidential election could potentially paint a murky picture of the U.S. economy.

Just four days before voters head to the polls, the federal government is set to release its final report on job growth and unemployment—a key economic update that could influence public opinion in the closing moments of a tightly contested presidential race. With the economy front and center throughout the campaign, the data has the potential to shape last-minute voter perceptions as they cast their ballots.

However, Friday’s report is expected to feature some of the most skewed monthly employment numbers seen in years, as October’s job growth was artificially suppressed by disruptions from hurricanes and major worker strikes. These temporary factors are likely to complicate efforts to gauge the true strength of the labor market heading into Election Day.

Upcoming Jobs Report

Under normal circumstances, the monthly jobs report provides a clear snapshot of the economy’s performance. However, economists predict that October’s numbers will reflect a temporary slowdown in hiring, with estimates suggesting that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike, likely slashed job growth by as many as 60,000 to 100,000 positions. Most of the losses are expected to be short-lived, and many workers anticipated to return to their jobs once the disruptions pass.

Economists project that Friday’s report will show a modest increase of 120,000 jobs for October, according to estimates from data provider FactSet. While this figure reflects steady growth, it marks a sharp drop from September’s unexpectedly strong gain of 254,000 jobs. Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at a historically low 4.1 percent, underscoring the continued resilience of the labor market despite recent disruptions.

Even after accounting for the temporary effects of hurricanes and labor strikes, the numbers suggest the job market remains robust. Despite the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates, the economy continues to display unexpected resilience, driven largely by strong consumer spending. This stability highlights the labor market’s ability to weather disruptions and maintain momentum.

Political Implications of the Jobs Report

Former President Donald Trump and his allies have repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden‘s administration, as well as Vice President Kamala Harris, for the surge in inflation that reached its peak two years ago before gradually easing. Despite solid job growth, minimal layoffs, and low unemployment, Trump continues to claim that the U.S. is a “failing nation.”

As part of his economic agenda, the former president has pledged to introduce sweeping tariffs on all imported goods, arguing that the move would revitalize American industry and bring back millions of manufacturing jobs.

The Harris campaign, meanwhile, has said she will focus more on the economy in the final week of the campaign, emphasizing the economic stability and growth under Biden.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.